Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Shakx7 - thanks for this. You make an excellent point -namely that an individual company's rising/falling share price might affect SMT's overall holding % in it. However, I think my theory still holds and will try to research the actual number of shares SMT held in Moderna & Tencent over recent months. Of course, it's further complicated by the fact that EVERY share SMT holds will change in value from month to month. What IS beyond doubt is that they've massively reduced their exposure to Amazon (from early Nov 20) & Tesla (from Jan 21), as they've said so themselves!

Whilst it's better than nothing, I don't think you can read much into the BOD spending less than £54K total on their own company's shares.

Depends on your timescale. If you're going to need the money in the next year or so, I'd top slice a bit now to lock in gains. September/October are traditionally dodgy stock market months, when corrections are historically more likely. That said, if you're investing for the long term, either don't worry about it. Or hedge a bit with a Gold ETF or similar counter-cyclical stock. The other thing I'd recommend is to monitor SMT's discount/premium to NAV. You'll soon get a feel for the current range it hovers around. If it subsequently starts trading at an abnormally high discount or premium, you can add or divest a chunk accordingly. By doing this, you could have sold above £14 back in Feb 21 and re-bought around the low-mid £10 mark in mid March & again mid May 21.

StrictlyZinc - I'm similar, though I did sell a chunk when the price went above £14 earlier this year and was lucky enough to be able to buy back in below £12. I find it's well worth studying the long term premium/discount levels, so you can act quickly (or set limit orders) for when the discount or premium deviates significantly from the longer term trend. I did this in Feb/Mar 21 and was able to add to my holding at a price below £11 and again below £10, in addition to the chunk I bought below £12. I'd have thought adding 100 shares at a time racked up high commission charges though? Unless you've a broker with a different charging structure (i.e. so many trades per month included at a flat rate)?

I expect we'll continue to see a reduction in SMT's Tencent holding. As I posted on Monday, it was 5.82% end May, 5.1% end June & 4.2% end July . Meanwhile Tencent's share price has dropped from 628 HKD end May to 436 HKD today. Tencent's latest earnings update suggests their share price will only continue heading south for the time being.

Anderson & Slater know when to take profits. And when to add. Look at Amazon. Just under a year ago, it was over 10% of SMT's entire portfolio. They started reducing in Nov 20 (at a slightly higher price than current levels) and have gradually brought their holding down to approx. 2.6% today. Amazon's share price fluctuated slightly over this same period. But it grew far less than between Jan & Aug 20, when SMT were much larger holders. It's a similar story with Tencent. A 5.82% holding end May, versus 5.1% end June & 4.2% end July . Meanwhile Tencent's share price has dropped from 628 HKD end May to 479 HKD end July. Conversely, Moderna's % holding has climbed from 4.71% end May to 8.5% end July. And over these same 2 months, Moderna's share price has risen from $185 to $354. So they almost doubled their holding just before the share price almost doubled. This is a key factor in SMT's stellar longer term outperformance. And it's important to bear this in mind, especially at times (like now) where SMT's price appears to be dropping / going nowhere.

Kinda irrelevant how many employees Seed Health has. Or Opti's other partners come to that. All that counts is their potential to generate significant sales & profits for Opti. And Seed Health looks very promising in that respect.

Surface - I disagree. A transformation at IDP is most definitely needed if decent results are to follow. Skinny Tan is obviously the main brand currently. But part of new management's role is to diversify the company, making it less seasonal and less reliant on a single product range. I've always had concerns that Mark Ward could take the company private, offering PIs a cheeky lowball price. But given his existing stake, I think it's unlikely he'd want to run the company into the ground, simply to pick up the remainder on the cheap.

I imagine Avion are obliged to inform IMM of the FDA's review outcome immediately. And as soon as they do, IMM would be legally obliged to RNS it, as it's market-sensitive information. So whether or not Avion are obliged to notify the London Stock Exchange direct is possibly irrelevant.

Only a missed opportunity if you need to withdraw funds short term. Otherwise the jury's out until we see whether new management can add more value than Creightons' offer would have. Personally, I'd give new management 12-18 months before deciding either way. Transformations like this require patience before we can see whether they've truly (& permanently) turned things round.

Today's 6 month interim results look pretty good. Though it's harder to compare with 2020 in a way, as both years had different periods affected by lockdown. I'm particularly pleased the dividend has significantly increased (LY: 2.5p TY: 4.0p) and see this as a big vote of confidence from management. On the downside, the outcome of the FCA review sounds as far off as ever: "Further updates will be provided in due course although it is not currently possible to put a timescale on completion of the review by the FCA, nor completion of the subsequent testing work by the skilled person". This - and any wobbles in pledge lending bounceback - will be the main potential headwinds for now.

For me it carries absolutely no weight whatsoever (unlike TW himself!). I believe he's fairly heavily invested in Opti, so has a vested interest. Results are all that count. And they're certainly starting to look a bit better. I was surprised the share price didn't react more when the update was issued on 5 August. But I said then some positive price momentum might continue for a few days afterwards. Which fortunately for long-suffering holders it has so far.

I agree prospects look encouraging here. But I'm doubtful stripping SBTX's current value from Opti's market cap gives a reliable indicator of Opti's longer term value. After all, SBTX is very volatile. In March 2020 its shares traded at just over 6p each. Sure, things have moved on. And it's currently at around 10 times last year's level. But today's SBTX price assumes a lot will continue to go right. And that's never a given. Not saying it won't. But I don't think you can confidently assume SBTX will always represent half Opti's market cap. That said, Opti's share price has generally been static or gone down over the past 2-3 years. So it's certainly due an upwards re-rate, assuming the better sales figures continue.

Still not sure what your point is, given that they've sold you £150K worth of SMT shares. Why continue holding if you're just going to fret all the time? It's all about risk management. Either hold & accept there's a risk. Or sell & accept there's a risk you sold at the wrong time.

highlander8219 - agreed! BGCG & SMT have a relatively small overlap. I guess you could argue both are quite specialised (BGCG in China, SMT in tech, comms, healthcare & consumer cyclical). But SMT has a far less risky geographical concentration ("only" around 18% direct exposure to China) and is spread across a decent number of sectors. Not sure why DorsetLSE is quite so jittery . Sure, SMT is high risk. But long term, it's also proved to be a consistent outperformer. And even short term, its current price is only 3%-4% off an all time high. If you think Anderson & Slater are the next Woodford, sell up & move on. You never know, you might be right. But equally you might come to regret it.

Depends when you bought. Didn't find it too painful holding IDP today.

This certainly seems a positive update. Surprised the share price hasn't reacted more. But maybe it'll take another day or so (with potential media coverage) before it fully sinks in. Anyone know if SweetBiotix US partner's six-figure payment is factored into the invoiced sales figures? If not, that's at least another guaranteed £100K coming its way shortly.

Anyone else noticed the very mixed reviews for IDP's recently launched Nuthing range? Admittedly, there are fewer than 20 reviews for any one product on Superdrug & Beauty Bay so far. Meaning the scores could improve. Who knows, it might even be the competition trying to sabotage a new player! But I somehow doubt it. Pre-launch, this was billed as the first major disruptor in decades for the hair removal sector, set to take the world by storm. Sadly, to me, it looks like a bit of a botched launch. I suspect there was inadequate market research pre-launch to ensure the products lived up to their claims. Several people say it leaves the skin red & prickly. Others claim this is a hair removal product which doesn't actually - errr - remove hair. Mixed reviews make it much trickier to persuade new customers to trial. And if repeat purchases are poor, Superdrug won't hesitate to delist. Not a great start, IDP.

jbongo - another scenario would be that the seller is SMT themselves. At any point they could decide to release some of the shares they currently hold in Treasury from previous buybacks. Sure, the number of shares in issue would remain constant, but this would - if anything - be a sell signal (just as recent purchases of their own securities is - if anything - a buy signal).

oldsid - reported buys & sells are all just estimates, based on the median price at the time. Given the small spread on SMT, they're often wrong (i.e. sells are mistakenly logged as buys and vice versa).