Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

nbe22 - "inflation data ticking downwards, probably by end of this year". Where are you living right now? Planet Zog?

rodders123 - problem is Opti isn't making a few billion is it? It's barely breaking even currently, with turnover in the low single digit £ milllions. However, I think this could change into a £10-£20M turnover business within the next 3-4 years. And assuming it does - and costs remain as tightly controlled as now - it would create a reasonably profitable company with decent repeat sales visibility, well capitalised by its SBTX holding. In which case, believe me, the share price would be more than a few pence up on its current level. So no need to wait for turnover to grow to billions (we'll probably all be long gone before then!) Instead, "all" we need is to move from the current breakeven phase to consistent & growing profitability.

I hope you're right but fear you're giving Tim way too much credit. He has a track record of enjoying a hefty salary whilst the companies he works for steadily decline (and often eventually go bust).

DorsetLSE - what propaganda? SMT has a stellar long term performance. Just look on Trustnet, where it's in the top quartile over 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 3Y & 5Y. That's not propaganda. It's fact. It's also the only thing that really matters to your average investor. Tencent & Alibaba's share prices have certainly declined dramatically over the past year or so. But such is Anderson & Slater's reputation that they often build stakes in companies before you or I have even heard of them, benefitting from "privileged access" if you like. That means on the successful ones which go on to IPO, they realise huge gains. Gains which dwarf any volatility the share price might subsequently display, having already multibagged from the early stage pricing at which SMT's managers bought in. You seem to be permanently fretting over your holding in SMT. Always looking for the negatives. Sure, it is high risk. But historically it has consistently delivered way above average returns at low fees. This could change of course. And I do antcipate a general market correction before too long, to which SMT wouldn't be immune. But no point in constantly viewing the glass as half empty, when SMT has already delivered big time.

I agree about market rockiness and have sold some of my (non-Opti) holdings over the past few months to move into cash. I think Opti could also be hit if there's a general correction, as it wouldn't be viewed as a safe haven, being a bit unproven still. But I'd be more inclined to top up my Opti holding if there's a general market slide than some of my other holdings, as it's not on a ridiculous premium already.

My take on Opti is that things are going to plan, but are taking longer to implement than was originally suggested by SOH (or perhaps simply hoped for by investors!) As a result, the share price remains range-bound, waiting for a major "show me the money" type of announcement. It looks like stand-alone profitability (i.e. profit EXCLUDING any change in the value of Opti's SBTX shareholding) is almost there. And sales & profit could then start to escalate fairly quickly. But it's still at a slightly unproven stage. So there could be further delays or unforeseen setbacks, hence the lacklustre share price performance these past 2-3 years.

From this morning's RNS: "Annualised cash savings post closure of circa £4.8m will be generated from a combination of operational costs savings and a reduction in lease liabilities that are expected to have a favourable annualised income statement impact of circa £1m. Exceptional cash closure costs of circa £2.5m are anticipated to be incurred in decommissioning the site and migrating capability." Two questions: 1) Can anyone explain why annualised £4.8M cash savings post-closure only equate to a £1M income improvement? 2) Does their £3M revenue drop for FY22 due to this transition plus the £2.5M decommissioning costs mean FY22 is once again going to generate lower sales & profits? I get that there should be a net gain from FY23 onwards. But are we in for another 18 months of misery before there's even a chink of light?

jbongo - apologies. You're right, I used the wrong term there - sorry! But I'm afraid I disagree with highlander8219 & stand by my assertion that inflation will continue rising way above the Bank's 2% target for way longer than most are expecting. Whilst the CPI figure is meant to be representative, I simply don't believe it reflects what the average household is currently buying - and therefore experiencing. Petrol at an 8 year high. Wholesale gas prices up almost threefold this year. Food prices up. Average wholesale electricity price up 14% on July 2021's level. Car prices up - especially secondhand. Timber over double what it was at the start of the pandemic. I could go on, but you get the general drift. I firmly believe the BOE has been asleep at the wheel, dismissing long term inflationary trends as a temporary blip. Possibly to prevent the UK''s borrowing repayments becoming unmanageable, though they'd never admit this as it would call into question their "independence". The longer they fail to act, the more excessively interest rates will eventually have to rise. And that could be the catalyst for a global market correction, as the UK won't be alone in this. Given this assumption, I've kept a chunky core holding in SMT but have traded a portion of it when the price looked toppy. That has meant selling twice so far this year when the price exceeded £14.00, buying back in three times when the price dipped below £12, £11 & £10 in the spring. I've another sell limit order set if SMT exceeds £15 within the next 3 months, as I'm confident I'd be able to buy back in cheaper fairly quickly.

Not me! Not because I don't have faith in SMT. Simply because I think markets are frothy right now and haven't factored in the hyper inflation we're soon going to witness. I think the BOE have called it wrong here and are being far too complacent about inflation being temporary. IMHO, a lot of the recent price hikes are here to stay. And I suspect more may well follow.

Potentially it could. But potentially, any interested party could have bought it out when the share price was in the low 20s last March. They didn't then. So with little changed in terms of short/medium term outlook, why would they now?

That's as maybe, but clearly the market either sees more risk or less long term potential in Opti currently. Otherwise it would be valued closer to some of the peers you mention. Let's not forget that a sizeable chunk of Opti's market cap represents its SBTX holding. I do see huge long term potential in Opti and am hopeful an upward re-rate will follow at some point. But when it's only turning over £2M or so currently and is barely breaking even, a market cap of £25M-£30M (excluding the value of its SBTX holding) seems about right just now. I'd add that whilst I implicitly trust SOH, I'm always slightly wary of any CEO claiming the market doesn't understand their company or undervalues it. He may be right. The market could well have overlooked the vast potential here. But surely that's down to him and his Board not having made a compelling enough case yet, nor backing it up by higher revenues & profits. These things take time. especially in a pandemic. But we have had the prospect of vastly higher sales, overall profitability and a special SBTX dividend touted around for some time here now. Time to deliver on those targets before you can expect any major re-rate.

Should do eventually, barring a general market slide. That said, SMT has generally traded at a discount to NAV over the past year.

Agreed it's a gamble, which is why I said the jury's still out.

If you were quick, you coud have sniffed that mountain air again briefly at 08.30 this morning! I suspect SMT will break through the 1400p mark for a while this month. Whether it holds might be governed more than anything by wider market movements. Historically, Sept & Oct are months where market corrections are more likely. This time round, a global Covid resurgence (possibly a new variant more resistant to current vaccines) &/or increased concerns over inflation could be the catalyst.

leas - whilst I'm a holder here, I think the jury's still out on why the placebo was more effective in some patients. It could equally be that at current dosage the drug is safe but statistically ineffective in some/all patients.

A very encouraging RNS this morning. The tie up with Amazon can only be good news and should lead to significant incremental sales. Product feedback there will be interesting to follow, as Amazon customers are, as a rule, pretty uncompromising. I'm also pleased they still see potential in Prolong. The JV seems a sensible way to exploit this and I like the sound of an eventual spin off, with Prolong's value being returned to shareholders. Finally, the options grant suggests Directors are confident today's share price can be significantly increased over the next few years. They'll only start gaining from the options if today's share price is at least 25% higher for at least a month in 3+ years' time. And they'll need a 75%+ increase over today's share price for at least a month in 3+ years' time to benefit fully. That's what share options should be - payment only by results.

StrictlyZinc - that's true for most of this year (though in Jan 21, it stood at around a 5% premium). If you look over the last 10 years though, it's traded between about a 5% premium and a 12% discount (the latter being as recent as Feb/Mar this year). So always worth keeping an eye on this measure and topping up / divesting a bit when the premium or discount drifts from its normal range.

An average return of 13.5% might be achievable (even easily) in a prolonged bull market like the current one. But it definitely won't be when the next market correction comes along (as it inevitably will). Tech stocks have fared particularly well since March 2020 and SMT has certainly benefited from this. But they might be the first to have the froth knocked off them in a downturn. So would you then sell SMT and take a hit (compared to the peak) on the basis they're now dragging down your average return? Or hold for the long term, on the basis they've traditionally always outperformed over longer periods? I know which I'd do. And it wouldn't be selling. Though I am trying to anticipate events by moving a bit more into cash now, as I suspect a correction isn't a million miles away. Especially the way Covid & inflation stats are trending. I could well be wrong of course, but a bird in the hand and all that.

skid35 - certainly not an in-depth analysis from IC, but are they ever? I've long given up on following any of their buy & sell tips. Have to disagree with you on the cash position though. At end Dec 20, cash & cash equivalents were £865K. And whilst total admin expenses reduced YOY, they were still £1.99M. With the company currently still loss-making (before adding in gains from SBTX shareholding value), I don't see how they'd have funded another year without either selling SBTX or announcing a rights issue. Surely the fact they chose to raise another £900K from SBTX share sales post-period bears this out. That said, I'm hopeful profitability will rapidly start to improve now, so they're no longer reliant on divesting more of their SBTX holding. After all, this spin off was originally designed to generate a dividend for Opti holders, so we don't want it all to evaporate!

shakx7 - I've asked Baillie Gifford how often they produce portfolio valuations & whether historical holding figures are available per share. Will post any response here.