Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

trouts - yes, that's quite a turnaround from someone who said just 10 days ago on this very board "just a waiting game until it is back up to 1600". I'd draw your own conclusions about the motives & reliability of said poster if I were you.

stocksr - I agree with your comment about paper losses, though of course exactly the same applies to paper gains! As to whether we've bottomed out or not, it's still anyone's guess. Personally, I wouldn't rely on charts. I don't see how they can possibly factor in the "known unknowns", of which there are currently way more than usual. (Inflation, Russia/Ukraine & potential new Covid variants, to name but three). But I, too, topped up twice recently when the discount to NAV became abnormally large. One of these top ups is currently underwater, the other positive. I've a couple more limit orders in place still, just in case the price drops to the low £9 & the low £8 mark.

Spikeyj - I take your point about recent big tech results affecting over all sector sentiment. That said, SMT owns neither of the two you mention (Meta & Alphabet)!

I suspect this is pure speculation from TW (IT). He appears to have a strong vested interest in Opti/SBTX shares rising. If SOH is feeding him market-sensitive info before it's publically released, that would be a big red flag for me (not to mention illegal surely?)

Robina - hindsight's always the best sight! In any case, how you react really depends on your investment timescale and whether you view any market correction as temporary or permanent. SMT's managers have always said they aren't unduly swayed by short term trends and that any holders should have a min. 5 year investment timeframe. I know some on here regard that as unreasonably long. In which case, they simply shouldn't invest in SMT. Simples!

Cashmonies - if you'd read my previous posts you'd have seenModerna represents a lot less than 10% of SMT's total holdings now. You're looking at out of date figures & valuations from last November.

JoeKing53 - Feb 2009 (in the thick of the financial crash), you could have bought SMT shares for 58p each. Even after the 5:1 share split in 2014 , that's a pretty decent return over a long timescale. So I'd say fund managers HAVE been investing in fundamentally profitable companies. You couldn't create that sort of return over such a long timeframe any other way.

Spikeyj - Quite! In fact I recently took issue with a poster here (no names, no pack drill!) who claimed "A good fund manager can get a return for investors every year, right?". Longer term investors will know even the greatest fund manager can't push water uphill. At least - not for long. I'd also suggest a change to the current thread title (BLOODBATH AS PREDICTED - BY SOME). Whilst new investors in SMT may view the recent fall as a bloodbath, I view it more as a correction, reflecting general market falls & sector rotation out of tech/growth & into value shares. Sure, it's painful whilst it lasts. But it won't last forever. And the rebound is just as likely to catch you offguard as the current fall.

NAV at 21 Jan (published this morning) was £11.14. Today's NAV will undoubtedly be lower. But not 8.5% lower, which is the current gap between SMT's share price & Friday's NAV. Looking back over the past 10 years, that's an abnormally high discount: hTTps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/scottish-mortgage-it-plc-ordinary-shares-5p/share-charts. Whilst value stocks are winning out over growth just now, I'd be surprised if this trend lasted more than a year or two. Which is why I've a couple more SMT limit buy orders in place at roughly £1 decreasing intervals from today's level. It's a risky call. But I'm fairly relaxed about it (for now at least!), even though my initial top up is currently around 9% underwater.

For the record, my 2nd SMT buy limit order was triggered earlier today at a touch above £10.20.

Phyl - as you say, the trouble with selling loss-makers in a falling market is knowing when to get back in. Sitting on cash (currently not earning much/any interest) is in itself loss-making in real terms. Over the years, I've tried to set limit buy & sell orders when markets were relatively calm & stable. Given time, what looks like a decent buy/sell proposition often still looks a decent call a few years later. That's not to say you couldn't have timed your buys/sells better. But volatility - in falling markets especially - often leads to panic. And panic buying/selling is rarely smart, as it's triggered by short term emotion (fear of missing out/losing more) rather than long term strategy.

runner10 - 70 is the new 50 nowadays! Best of luck with your investments.

Runner10 - thanks for asking. As previously mentioned, I've already placed three buy limit orders at £1 intervals (between about £10.25 & £8.25). I'd be surprised if the price went much lower than £8. But never say never - I've been surprised many a time before! However, I think it's worth remembering SMT was priced at around £15.50 as recently as Nov '21. So whilst headwinds are inevitable, some - like inflation - have started to be recognised by global markets. And priced in to an extent - especially with growth stocks - as SMT's already 28% fall from peak testifies. I guess it's the unknown unknowns that could still derail things. Which is why a 5 year+ investment timeframe here is highly preferable.

denby69 - not sure quite what you mean by "I was talking to another member on here". Do you not realise this is a public forum? Never mind! Anyhow, I'm highly relieved you don't give financial advice. Not that anyone's terribly likely to take it when one minute you claim to have "filled your boots" with ABCAM shares (paying around £13.60 each), then stating in the same breath that you "expect it to go down to 12.34 per share". I guess you might be proved right on the second count. Which would make your buying decision look even more daft.

denby69 - so you filled your boots on Monday (buying 3500 shares) when the price was around £13.60. Yet in the same breath you say - and I quote - "I still expect it to go down to 12.34 per share". Now there's some perverse logic if ever I saw it.

Busted. So off you trot paultokyo29

paultokyo29 - you might have an ounce more credibility if you hadn't just written "I wouldn't go near any BG funds , would you? just putting this opinion out there guys ...."

Paultokyo29 - you may expect returns annually. That's fine - providing you don't always expect them to be POSITIVE. Otherwise, why would anyone ever invest in anything else? I really hope you were joking when you said "A good fund manager can get a return for investors every year, right?" If you honestly think that, I'm afraid you're in for a very rude awakening my friend.

If it's any consolation, I too added recently (at £11.24) and am not unduly concerned. I've also got further buy limit orders in place at £1 decreasing intervals below this level. If you buy and the price then moves lower, it can be tempting either to cut your losses and sell or kick yourself and do nothing. However, for now at least, I remain confident in SMT fund managers' long term record. So I'm putting my money where my mouth is and topping up on weakness whenever there's an unusually high discount to NAV. I could be wrong of course and things could also deteriorate once Andersen retires. But I've been handsomely rewarded since first investing here in 2016, so am prepared to take that risk.

joeking53 - try 5 years from when you bought. Things might look very different then.