Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

time2retire - cause & effect surely? At the moment, a bear market would most likely be caused BY inflation.

Who knows. It's usually when everyone's upbeat & no-one's even thought of a bubble that the bubble (which no-one spotted) promptly bursts. So positive that it's being discussed at least. I don't foresee a total meltdown, but markets could easily shed 20% or so, as fears of prolonged inflation become a reality, stoking multiple, relatively rapid interest rate rises. Just a shame the FED & BOE were both asleep at the wheel for so long. It was blindingly obvious they should have acted much sooner. And if they had done, they could have got away with fewer rises. Andrew Bailey (current BOE Governor) strikes me as ineffective & almost totally invisible compared to Mark Carney. Problem for investors is that people have predicted the sky falling in for some time now. It will happen eventually, but if you've sat on cash in the meantime, you've already missed out on a fairly spectacular rise. And when the correction does finally happen, how will you know when it's hit rock bottom? I'm about 15% in cash currently, leaving me some firepower if there's a dramatic correction. But meaning I also don't miss out too much if current turbulence proves short-lived.

Apart from that, spot on denby69.

denby69 - well done on both counts. No RNS today & since you filled your boots yesterday, the share price has fallen a further 3.3% at time of writing this morning.

Probably a good sign. Analysts are nearly always wrong. They just use a moving target (current share price) to guess where it will be at some future date. Then when that prediction doesn't materialise, they use a new moving target (latest share price) to do the same all over again.

basscadet - That's as maybe. But as we all know by now, there's been an unfortunate disconnect these past 4-5 years between the wider sector's prospects & IQE's own fortunes. Something Edison has repeatedly failed to mention. So, sadly, it's repeatedly reached the wrong conclusion.

As is often the way, Edison's research is paid for by IQE. So in true "don't bite the hand that feeds you" style, it's hardly impartial. And as Gotrader points out, even by analysts' usual appalling standards, it hasn't exactly been a great indicator recently.

I suspect some of the posters asking whether the managers know what they're doing bought in at higher levels. In which case, it's human nature to feel this and to ask awkward questions. But I don't think you can really argue with SMT's long term performance, whichever 3-5 year timeframe you care to pick. And few were questioning the managers' risk appetitie last year or in 2020 when things looked pretty rosy. Any fund will go through periods of underperformance. Some do it almost all the time, so are well worth avoiding. But you can't in all fairness say that of SMT (for now at least).

As previously pointed out, SMT's current Moderna holding is way below 10%. You're looking at the fund's Nov 21 holding, since when Moderna's share price has dropped over 40% (and with it, SMT's % holding as a proportion of total fund size). SMT also divested a large chunk of SMT's Tesla holding close to the top. So its managers were clearly aware of the potential risks and acted accordingly. True, they still hold a fair number, but nothing like the amount they had a year ago.

Kick - it might have been around 10% in Nov 21, but will be a lot less now - unless SMT has added to their holding since Nov. Moderna's share price has fallen 40%+ since Nov 21. So the value of this holding as a percentage of SMT's total market cap will also have dropped.

There's already been a Nasdaq correction of sorts, though I agree it could have much further to go. Whilst this would undoubtedly impact SMT, I'd question a direct correlation between the two. SMT has - through deliberate changes in its geographical focus - become more susceptible to Asian stock movements. And by default SLIGHTLY less influenced by US trends.

Surely you don't need to be bullish to expect H2 2022 to be a vast improvement on H2 2021 (when there were still lockdowns & heavy restrictions). When people weren't socialising much last spring, they were less likely to care if they looked suitably tanned. Barring a severe new variant (which admittedly could happen), the government has clearly signalled lockdowns are no longer on the cards.

Surely standard accounting convention is to book sales once a firm order has been received and the corresponding invoice raised. There'll always be a lag between invoice date and funds hitting the bank account.

But remember, that Moderna valuation was at 30 Nov 21. Dividing the market value by the holding qty, I make it around £267 per Moderna share. Whereas today's valuation is approx. £156. So around a 41% drop. As SMT's price hasn't fallen by anything like the same amount, Moderna would represent a much lower % holding today than 1.5 months ago.

Rather than scoff at others' mistakes, shouldn't posters on this forum be trying to help their fellow SMT investors? Tips & views - always welcome. Ridicule - not so much.

When I last checked (admittedly a while ago), customer reviews for Nuthing were almost universally poor. I suspect that's why marketing spend has been reduced. You can put lipstick on a pig, but until you've got the product right, you're wasting your money.

phixion - the key word in your post is "planning". Those planning on retiring now should really have been de-risking their portfolio a few years ago. Unless they're happy to remain invested and they still have enough capital to sell, say, 4% p.a. and live off that + their state pension. That pre-supposes you've built up quite a pot though (or that you lead a very frugal life!)

As this week has already shown, SMT is a highly volatile investment. So if you're soon going to be dependent on retirement capital from it, you probably shouldn't have left the money there that long in the first place!

Quite. SMT's managers frequently state that 5 years should be the very minimum timeframe by which to judge (and therefore hold) this IT.

Thanks for the link. Interesting article, though bit of a stretch for them to say the SBTX "holding effectively provides a source of non-dilutive funding if required." It's already massively diliuted the potential dividends we were promised when SBTX was spun off!