Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

I'm not in the least sensitive about it. Just find it slightly tedious when someone repeatedly asks the same question. In my book, overall performance is all that matters really. Not the success rate. Though the two will obviously be linked to an extent.

Sure the fund is down significantly from last year's highs. But it wouldn't have gone up nearly as much in previous years without major bets like Tesla paying off handsomely.

DorsetLSE - no & anyway it's totally irrelevant. Fact is, SMT bought into Tesla early & benefitted hugely as a result. So yes, had they NOT piled into Tesla when they did and had they NOT reduced this holding when the price neared its peak, things could have been very different. But they did. So things aren't. End of.

Cruusoe - sure, but he would say that wouldn't he. Market movement has been pretty dire since his over-enthusiastic bid went in. Especially in the big tech sector. Musk has a history of trying to manipulate share prices with his tweets.

Most likely reason for Tesla's ranking drop is that its share price has fallen 30%+ in past month. Musk overbidding on Twitter, then scrabbling for reasons to pull out hasn't exactly helped credibility there. Private company investments' ranking rise could either be because they're faring better than average. Or (let's hope not) because they're awaiting revaluation and are currently artificially high still.

DShox - I fully agree with you. But sadly many investors probably won't distinguish between the two. They'll simply see "tek" in the share name and associate it with the broader tech sector which is out of favour right now. No real other explanation (except possibly the delayed LUCY IPO) for why TEK's share price would be down so far this month, despite positive YE results. It's driven by bearish sector sentiment. But that'll change eventually.

DShox - in the medium term I think (& hope!) you're right. But short term, tech stocks are out of favour, so we're likely to see further volatility.

Yup, this has certainly been a good share to hold in recent months, with an increased dividend as the cherry on top. And I think there's more to come still. As you say, weird share price tracking. The trades at 374p & 375p this morning were all for relatively low values. Still doesn't explain why the current share price (375p) is 8p more than the Ask (367p). Perhaps the MM's fond of liquid lunches...

Here it is in black & white:

Share Price Information for H&t Group Plc (HAT)
London Stock Exchange
Share Price is delayed by 15 minutes
Get Live Data
Share Price: 375.00 Bid: 361.00 Ask: 367.00 Change: 11.00 (3.02%)
Spread: 6.00 (1.66%) Open: 365.00 High: 375.00 Low: 365.00 Prev. Close: 364.00

Backing up my previous post, the latest share price being shown on LSE is 375p (up 11p). Yet they show the Bid @ 361p & the Ask at 367p. They can't all be right!

Always impossible to know when you're buying the bottom until after the event. Even SMT's managers won't be able to do more than take an educated guess. But I'm keeping the faith for the longer term.

Unless I'm much mistaken, one thing with HAT is that its daily share price movements often seem to be misrepresented. Its share price will often show a rise or a fall, when in fact it's just the SPREAD that's widened or narrowed. So whilst the mean price might suggest a rise or fall, the bid is actually no different. Current example at 3.30pm today: Bid = 357p, Ask = 361p, showing a fall of 7p. But yesterday, the CLOSING price was 357p, which was then swiftly marked up to 364p in early trading this morning. The following chart shows this, when you select "Today" from the dropdown on the right: hTTps://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HAT/h-t-group-plc/company-page. In other words, what's shown as a 7p drop today is actually NO CHANGE in price from yesterday's close.

Refreshing to own shares in a company that's actually hitting or exceeding its forecasts! I can't see any way HAT can fail to outshine over the next year or two, given the general economic climate.

Sadly jim_w, that was a forlorn hope. But at some point, what looks like increasingly indiscriminate selling of anything other than "value" stocks will end.

At their most recent valuation, unquoted stocks were around 23% of SMT's total value. So the fund's approx. 50% share price drop, implies all unquoted holdings have been totally written off, with the remaining 77% of the fund taking a 35% hit. Unless quoted stocks have lost even more than 35% in aggregate, which I doubt. Of course, the other explanation is that with all the market uncertainty right now, SMT is trading at an abnormally high discount to NAV (around 11.5%), which history suggests is likely to unwind at some point. Whilst it ain't looking pretty right now, it also ain't looking totally rational. Which is not to say it couldn't get worse in the short term. But at some point, that heavy discount to NAV will reverse out.

cashmonies - I hope you're right. But let's face it, nobody knows. I top-sliced late last year when the price went above £14 & again above £15, as these levels looked "frothy" to me. More recently, I've reinstated these two stakes & added further at prices from just below £12 downwards, setting limit buy orders at ever-decreasing £1 intervals. Apart from yesterday's buy at below £8, the rest are currently underwater, so far from ideal. But if I hadn't sold higher up in the first place, I probably wouldn't have bought back in on the way down either. I'm not as hopeful as you of any fast bounce in the coming months. I suspect it'll take a good couple of years (at least) for the current wave of inflation to work its way through before hopefully being countered to some extent by initiatives from central banks & governments. And until then, given the sectors SMT's in, we're likely to see plenty of volatility and some further scary moments. But I'm more hopeful that within the next 5 years, my recent top ups here will start bearing fruit.

Don't know about Walkers, but generally you can taste the difference (& not in a good way) when products are low in salt/sugar. So whilst Salarius is probably fairly peripheral to Tek's overall value, I do think it has a point of difference.

Ironically, increased talk of inflation leading to interest rate rises leading to recession may actually help solve some of the current headwinds longer term. The price of natural gas on 4 March 2022 was just over 460p per therm. Fast forward to today and it's below 135p. That's a drop of over 70% in just over 2 months! hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt/natural-gas. Energy companies forward buy, so some will already have committed to next winter's supply at higher prices than today's. But if the trend continues (and admittedly that's a very big if whilst Putin's still around), it will reduce some inflationary pressure.

Really volatile swings again this week. Bizarrely, US markets surged yesterday, despite the Fed announcing its biggest interest rate hike since 2000. Perhaps everyone thought this would help slow inflation, without leading to a recession. Then today, just when you thought yesterday's news had been absorbed, everyone re-visited it. And this time, their conclusions were very different. Result? US markets down between 3% & 5% at time of writing. OK, deep breaths, then repeat after me: "In three years time, this will largely all be forgotten."

Always good to have a balance of views. I only invested here just before the Bank Holiday (anticipating imminent good results) and am currently in profit (just!). I share kunningken's concerns about LUCY's IPO (or the sudden lack of it?), but suspect there's enough good news elsewhere to support Tek's price around its current level. Here's hoping anyway.