Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

dynamofc - That may be so, but RM also imposes minimum volume rules for its business services. All I can say is we've been with Evri over a year now. Initially alongside RM, but now almost exclusively with Evri. During this time, our sales have grown, with increased repeat purchases too (so it can't be putting too many customers off). Sure, it hasn't been faultless. But then neither was RM - and Evri's tracking is more comprehensive, not to mention far lower cost. AngerSharkz - it's a fact - NOT anecdotal - that RM's domestic parcel volumes are currently in decline. Ofcom states "Royal Mail’s domestic parcel volumes have fallen back slightly, by 4% compared to the same period in the previous year." While according to Hannah Burrows of Credit Suisse "analysis suggests Royal Mail has lost share of the UK parcel market, which we do not think is widely appreciated and is a cause for concern." Burrows forecasts a slight decline in Royal Mail's parcel volumes in this fiscal year, in contrast to market expectations of a 3% growth, as outdoor movement increases and testing kit volumes decline while shopping habits only partially normalised last year.

For the second time in as many months, Royal Mail has increased its fuel surcharge on business customers - to 8%. Meanwhile, Yodel & Evri (facing exactly the same cost increase & already significantly cheaper on parcels) have absorbed the increase in their costs completely. Guess where many businesses are heading? Clue: it ain't RM.

Guess it depends who bought what Royal Bank of Canada sold. Not usually viewed as positive when a major shareholder reduces - and has possibly contributed to the recent price weakness? But without knowing the circumstances, it's all pure speculation really.

Thanks for the offer. But no thanks.

To an extent. But NAV has also increased over the past week (admittedly not by as much as the share price). I guess you could argue NAV is also market sentiment-driven. But then, ALL share prices are really. Otherwise you wouldn't get bull & bear markets to the extent we do.

denby69 - I now see why you said "you should never pay attention to what people post". Last Wednesday you claimed "I will start shorting this share and I believe that I will make loads of money doing it". Two days later you proudly announced your short at £11.68. Since then, the price has risen to £11.91 at the time of writing. So far so bad.

All credit to Lemos for trying to squeeze some money out of government for IQE’s expansion. Given the state’s current finances though, I imagine they’ll tell any private company coming cap in hand to do one and use a placing if they need extra funds. Whilst this might be short-sighted of government, I’m pretty sure it’ll be their approach.

"you should never pay attention to what people post"

I'd suggest there's no real point in sniping at one another. Nobody knows when the war will end and how long it'll take to bring inflation back under control. Sadly, I don't see the latter happening by year end though YngGun27, but as I say nobody knows. I don't think it's right to imply SMT has no core tech holdings. They may not all be fully established tech yet (i.e. Microsoft), but they include several profitable & well-known brands. Equally, tech isn't SMT's sole focus. In fact it has a higher proportion of holdings in the consumer cyclical & healthcare sectors. As to where it'll find a level price-wise, again nobody knows. But one thing I would put money on is that if SMT falls to £4 before the year's out, value shares will also have dropped significantly from their current level. Nothing will be immune from global inflationary pressures & an increasingly likely-looking recession. Indeed this may make "value" shares start looking cheap for a reason.

Few shares (even value ones) have done particularly well in recent months. FTSE100 - & more especially FTSE 250 - down YTD. Ditto CAC 40, DAX, Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, Nikkei etc. etc. War & inflation have seen to that. Sure, there has been some significant rotation from growth to value stocks and this may continue. But given the huge rebalancing already experienced, I'd be reluctant to say "The move from extremely over valued growth stocks held by SMT to value/core stocks WILL BE massive". HAS BEEN might be a more appropriate term.

Ridiculous spread at the moment (Bid 345p, Ask 373p). All so the market makers can report an imaginary share price drop of 17p on the day? Mark my words, this will show a decent rise again tomorrow morning, when the imaginary drop is reversed, as if by magic.

denby69 - in your own words from 4 February "these boards are like the beano comic and ... you should never pay attention to what people post".

Angersharkz - You'll be relieved to hear this is my last post for the time being. So please don't expect a reply if you respond to it. I just didn't feel I could let your latest comments go unchallenged. So here are a few final facts (not opinions) 1) Market consensus has NOTHING to do with the press. The clue's in the word "market". And on the day RM released its latest results, the share price dropped from 342p to 300p. Sure, it's regained a bit of that since. But only a bit. 2) We're agreed - it's no surprise parcel volumes are off their lockdown peak. And as the following ONS chart shows, online sales as a proportion of total retail sales are around their lowest level since Autumn 2020: hTTps://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi. So yes, online sales (and by association, parcel volumes) are still well above pre-pandemic levels, but they peaked last year. Problem is, far from the economy "kicking back into gear again" any time soon as you put it, I think we can all agree LOWER retail sales are pretty much baked in this year. So with online sales representing less of the total retail pie and the total retail pie shrinking, we're unlikely to see parcel volumes rocket as we head towards - if not into - a recession. Added to which, hopefully for all our sakes, RM won't benefit again from the multiple tens of million Covid tests & the half a billion PPE items it delivered on behalf of the UK government last FY. As you're presumably a RM shareholder, I hope your "reasons to be cheerful" end up winning out over my "reasons to be cautious". But I can't see it myself.

I'd say the following was fairly conclusive evidence that operational errors/pricing/decades of system underinvestment will dent shareholder returns: 1) Latest operating profit below market consensus 2) Recent cost savings short of target 3) Parcel volumes tapering off lockdown highs 4) CWU spoiling for (yet another) fight with management. The latter increases the risk either of strikes (leading to service deterioration & customer migration) or increased costs if management bows to union pressure. Anyhow, I won't waste further time on this board for now, as I can see some investors only like to hear positive comments. I fear those will be in short supply over the next year or so, but good luck if you feel otherwise. Bye.

simx - no single month's figures is very representative. Particularly around March & April, as Easter falls differently each year, skewing the figures. In terms of longer term online v. high street sales trends, the following is more helpful: hTTps://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi. AngerSharkz - if you look on any marketplace seller forum, you'll see the opinions I gave are widespread. Not just my personal views. Equally, there are some who swear by RM, so admittedly there isn't total consensus. I agree with your comments about broker upgrades/downgrades BTW. They all blow with the wind, very often have a vested interest and are totally useless. After all, Peel Hunt's previous target for RM was 550p. Now it's 307p. They're all utterly clueless.

Google it and you'll find some interesting forums on marketplaces like Amazon & Ebay, where sellers share their experience of using Evri, RM, Yodel & others. You'll find some nightmare stories about each of them. But the general consensus is that Yodel & Evri have improved these past couple of years, whilst RM's service has got significantly worse. As well as becoming far pricier than its competitors. It's almost like RM shareholders don't want to hear the facts. Which is fine. After all, it's your money. Just trying to give you a bit of inside knowledge. I made a few similar posts last winter when RM's share price was over £5. Got shouted down by some then too. Which is a shame, given what's happened since.

gssvejk - Easy to say, but do you actually run a business using Evri to deliver the orders? We do, constantly tracking their service levels. And your comments bear NO relation to our experience. That's not to say Evri are perfect. Far from it. But they're much better value than RM, with more comprehensive tracking. Plus they actually include £20 insurance cover on their entry-level service. When things go wrong (as they will occasionally with any courier), Evri aren't easily contactable unless you know the system. But they've always paid up eventually on our claims. Unlike RM who used to waste hours of our time form-filling, in the hope we'd die trying.

SIMX - try this: hTTps://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/march2022. ANGERSHARKZ - That's a fair summary. Speaks volumes though that RM has only recently admitted (or at least publically stated) that parcels are the future, not letters. hTTps://www.statista.com/statistics/1006816/royal-mail-volume-of-parcels-and-letters-delivered-uk/. Where have they been living all these years? And don't they think 1st & 2nd Class price increases - particularly in recent years - may have had a teensy bit to do with letter volumes falling off a cliff? Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden egg.

ANGERSHARKZ - I don't disagree. But as a proportion of TOTAL retail sales, online's % has decreased in recent months. And since total retail sales are currently also in decline, this obviously means fewer parcels overall. BLOCKFIRE - People's experience of any carrier (RM included) are largely influenced by how good their local delivery driver/postie is. As a business, we closely monitor customer satisfaction, on-time deliveries & delivery problems. As I said previously, Evri are far from perfect. But nationwide, their performance matrix for us has been at least as good as RM's. And they were significantly better than RM last Christmas.

OliGarch - quite. I work for an online business. Royal Mail's answer to everything over the past few years has been to raise prices. As well as their annual (& now more frequent?) price increases, they recently introduced a fuel surcharge for business customers too. As a result, we moved to Evri some time ago who are significantly cheaper, offer full tracking even on their basic service and actually pay up if they lose/damage a parcel. They're not perfect by any stretch. But then neither was Royal Mail, especially last Christmas. We now only use Royal Mail for Channel Isles, Scottish Highlands etc; which other carriers surcharge. Probably a loss-making customer for RM as a result. But that's what happens when you get complacent and think price increases are the only answer (rather than modernising & introducing higher tech systems). Evri's business price increase this April was less than 1.5%. Royal Mail's was 7.5%. Go figure. On the issue of online sales - anecdotally, the proportion of online to bricks & mortar has dropped in favour of the high street in recent months. In any case, it ain't going to be a bumper year for parcels (or the high street), as everyone will have significantly less to spend. And Royal Mail's share of the pie will almost certainly continue to decline for as long as they insist on pricing themselves out of the market.