Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

If you can buy at 37p, surely your theory that it'll reach 45p WON'T have been confirmed! Even though it may get there subsequently.

Sector classification is a grey area. Moderna, for example, is presumably classified under Healthcare. But as a biotech, you could reasonably argue there's a strong overlap with the Technology sector.

You wot?

Still puzzled why Creightons haven't come back for a third bite at it. Unless they no longer see a way to turn things round.

madabout - I know exactly what market cap is thank you - total value ascribed to any company. So if the value is sky high (as with SBTX), whilst sales are minimal (as with SBTX currently, though I accept they could accelerate rapidly), it shows a shedload of growth has been taken on trust & is already priced in. Anyhow, I get the distinct impression nothing I say will make SA's groupies even vaguely query the risk they're taking. So I shall stop wasting my time and hope for all your sakes (& mine with my Opti SBTX stake) that things turn out as well as you seem to be taking for granted. Bye.

AQUAE - I won't be posting on here for a while after this. But to answer your query: by "a lower starting base", I obviously meant SBTX's sales are currently a fractin of Opti's. And yes, I know they're at very different stages of commercialisation. But their respective market caps (Opti's currently being LOWER than SBTX's) suggest that either a) Skin's growth is VERY fully priced in already or b) that Opti's is currently being overlooked by the market. CLIO - Admittedly things have moved on since Dec 2021. But if you think £22K of sales up until then suggests a Lewis Hamilton style CEO, I suggest you think again.

Just a sign he can afford it, after years of being overpaid for putting the company into reverse.

Had there been a Lucyd buyout, they'd have had to RNS it yesterday.

DorsetLSE - agreed, though always easier said than done! And of course, things could fall further still. But at least you'd be getting in at a far better time now than six months ago. Walp - all credit to you for the invaluable work you do. There's no such thing as a "humble" staff nurse in ICU!

Anyone know why LUCY's IPO appears to have been delayed? I understood it was scheduled for today.

Toyin - I can assure you SOH I am not! Madabout & Phat - I wasn't trolling. Just giving some reasons why, in my view, Opti is a safer investment than SBTX. You disagree with me - which is absolutely fine. But getting all heated & making it personal with comments like "load of old tosh", "trolling" & "you have no clue", suggests an underlying insecurity in your thinking. So I won't waste further time on here for now. As I said before, best of luck with your SBTX investments. It'll be interesting to see who was right in 5 years' time.

walp - good to see our views on SMT are pretty much aligned (though we could both be wrong of course!). Not sure I agree with everything in your latest post though (sorry!). Whilst all things are temporary, so too is life unfortunately. And that dictates people's investment timeframes. So if you bought into SMT at almost twice today's level, thinking you'd be quids in in 2 or 3 years' time, you might be in for a nasty shock. Though of course, things could equally have settled down again by then (I'd question investing in SMT anyway, if your timeframe is less than 5 years). You mention the price seen in downturns having no real reflection on actual value. That's often true. But to some extent it also applies to any sudden upturns. Much of SMT's price rise from March 2020 for example was driven by a very specific catalyst - Covid. Initial ignorance about the virus and its likely impact led to some irrational revaluations, particularly in the tech sector. Many of these have started to unwind, now the general consensus is that Covid is becoming controllable and was hopefully a bit of a one-off - short term at least. Which, to my mind, slightly calls into question your final comment "the further down we go the further we go up in the future". I'd certainly expect SMT to be significantly higher than today's level at some stage within the next 5 years and I share your broadly optimistic outlook on it. But - whilst very different from SMT's holdings - surely the likes of Carillion, Thomas Cook, Debenhams, BHS etc disprove the theory what goes down must always come up.

aquae - I'd agree with most of that (though Opti HAS done a limited amount in the B2C space too). But assuming you're right and Skin's future growth trajectory is higher than Opti's, my point is it's from a FAR lower base. Yet SBTX's current market cap is HIGHER than Opti's. And unlike Opti, it has no stake in the potentially valuable spin off companies. Also, as you say, Sweetbiotix could still prove to be Opti's jewel in the crown. Whilst SOH has repeatedly been over-optimistic on Opti's timescales to achieve specific turnover targets & breakeven, he's generally been rightin terms of the eventual outcome (albeit with a significant time lag). I wish SBTX investors the best of luck. After all, to an extent, their fortune is tied to mine, given Opti's remaining stake in Skin. But I know where I'd rather invest my money. And it isn't with SBTX.

HeadingNorth - whilst you could be right, it's unlikely IMHO. Especially as all the things you mention are already known knowns (though they could get worse of course).

Governments across the world have been slow trying to get ahead of the curve on inflation. I guess they were all too preoccupied with Covid - and now the war in Ukraine. Trouble is, the longer you leave these things, the worse - and more expensive - they are to correct. Andrew Bailey (current BOE Governor) strikes me as a real lightweight compared to his predecessor Mark Carney. At least Carney took decisions. And Fishy Rishi squandered a major opportunity in his spring statement, failing to boost public confidence by offering sufficient financial support to struggling families NOW. Instead, he seems to be adopting a drip feed solution, with further intervention now almost certainly being needed in the autumn. Problem is, this bit-by-bit approach ends up costing as much if not more. But without the confidence-boosting effect you'd get from more dramatic intervention now. After all, he went big on the furlough scheme and - whilst eye-wateringly expensive - most would agree it's paid off. Have to say, I admire France's approach with EDF - capping 2022 energy increases to 4%, then telling state-owned EDF to suck up the resulting €26bn profit hit (albeit with the French state backing a €2.5bn capital raise).

walp - I hope you're right - but as you say no-one has a crystal ball. To me, the most likely fly in the ointment is stagflation. Whilst global inflation is already in the headlines, its impact is yet to be fully felt. Here in the UK, another substantial (& seemingly inevitable) energy price rise in October - when usage is much higher - will really hit home. And if too many workers start viewing these dramatic price spikes as permanent (which they won't be), demanding higher wages as a result, things could really turn nasty. Hopefully it won't come to that though!

Given Opti's stake in SBTX, I hope phat & toyin are both right and that SBTX generates the vast growth its current market cap dictates. But personally, I wouldn't be putting my money on it.

phat - if you re-read my post, you'll see I said "even if strong growth FROM MULTIPLE AVENUES is forecast from here." Fact remains, a valuation of 38x current sales is taking an awful lot of future growth on trust. toyin - Stripping out ProBiotix Health, Opti's current market cap is LESS than SBTX's - at around £29M. Yes, here too progress has been slower than originally signposted. But at least Opti's now around the breakeven level with turnover in the low millions. Plus it still owns potentially valuable stakes, both in SBTX & PBX.

I'm only a "passive" SBTX investor via my Opti holding. But IMHO the endless debate re £21,949 sales to end Dec 2021 v. £1.2M originally forecast by Jun 2022 misses the point. Even with the substantial share price drop, SBTX currently has a market cap of around £45M. Were they to hit £1.2M sales (NOT PROFIT), by end June, that still means they'd be valued on a multiple of around 38x annual sales. That's just plain bonkers in my view, even if strong growth from multiple avenues is forecast from here. For a while now, global markets have been scrutinising the net present value of "growth" stocks against a high inflation environment. And increasingly, the conclusion is they're far less compelling than previously thought. SBTX hasn't been immune to this, with its share price falling from around 75p last October to under 30p currently. Whilst it's in an exciting sector with some strong growth potential, I believe that's more than factored in still and certainly wouldn't be buying - even at the current lower share price level. I appreciate this opinion won't be popular with many here, but am just saying what I think as a relatively neutral bystander.

Haha - too much meddling is rarely good. Though I'd suggest keeping a SLIGHTLY closer eye on things than that!