Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Resipsa - I guess it could alter the growth/value balance. But if recession hits, most company profits will decline, be they growth or value. And IMHO, an increasing number of profit misses this autumn/winter would likely spook markets in general.

CaptainP - I imagine we'll certainly see £10 again at some stage. But nobody knows how soon. SMT has definitely perked up since mid June. But whether this trend proves sustainable is anyone's guess. Having recently returned from the US, there's a LOT of news talk there about a potential recession. Indeed, by our standards, they're already in one - having suffered two quarters of negative growth. However, they calculate things slightly differently there (how handy!). I think it's almost inevitable the UK (& probably the US) will go into recession. But it may well look different & slightly less painful than previous ones, as jobless figures remain low currently. September is often the month when markets catch a cold. I guess everyone returns from their summer hols to huge credit card bills & feels a bit gloomier! Given the global outlook, IMHO the chances of a market downturn this autumn/winter are high. And whilst SMT isn't directly linked to the Nasdaq (or any other US index), it would certainly be pulled back by any significant downturn there. For this reason, I've already sold one of my recent SMT trading tranches (bought just below £7 this June). And I'll ditch a second tranche if the price moves above £9. However, even with these sales, I'd remain heavily invested in SMT. I'm just keen to de-risk slightly, as markets seem to be going up just as business conditions worsen. Which will, I suspect, prove unsustainable - short term at least.

RS16 - if you read my previous posts, you'll see SMT doesn't essentially track the Nasdaq. Whilst there is some mirroring, SMT fell far less than the Nasdaq in the tech downturn. Whilst it has also risen less in the subsequent uptick, it has performed better than the Nasdaq overall in recent months.

leas - on the other hand, IMM may be gambling (like many of its investors) that the FDA will approve the trial. That would likely lead to a rise in the share price, which would mean they'd dilute less with any fundraise. High stakes, but that's pharma for you.

Logic suggests that when there's finally some form of end in sight to Russia's invasion, those shares most sharply hit to date may also rebound the most. Which would of course be good news for SMT. One of the main triggers of inflation (and therefore a flight from growth to value stocks) has been Russia's war on Ukraine. Though the hangover from Covid - & its resulting supply chain problems - has also been instrumental. When major inflationary pressure from energy price surges starts diminishing (which it would if the war ended), interest rates shouldn't have to keep going up. That, in turn, would make equities in general look more attractive - and growth stocks in particular more palatable. Of course, no-one knows how long Russia will continue its aggression. Or what the final outcome will be. But I can't help thinking that beyond Winter 22, things might start looking a lot stickier for Russia's finances. Many nations have pledged to significantly reduce their reliance on Russian oil - & to a lesser extent gas - by the end of this year. And whilst Russia could possibly offset part of that shortfall via China, it's unlikely to recoup all the losses that way - even with energy prices at their current high levels. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA): "In 2021 Russia exported an estimated 4.7 million bpd of crude to countries around the world. China is the largest importer of Russian crude (1.6 million bpd) , but Russia exports a significant volume to buyers in Europe (2.4 million bpd)." The US could be instrumental here, if it can keep its pledge to boost gas imports to the EU.

Yes, by far the highest it's been over the past 10 years: hTTps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/scottish-mortgage-it-plc-ordinary-shares-5p/share-charts. Which isn't to say it won't widen further of course. But if the discount starts reducing again going forward, it might be a decent buy/add signal. My holding's already a decent size, otherwise I'd be tempted if we revisited mid-£6 territory at any point.

I may be wrong, but I think that last note just means they currently have accrued losses which they'd be able to offset for tax purposes against any future profits. However because they haven't made those future profits yet (and it can't be certain they will), these tax losses haven't been recognised as at 31 12 21.

I guess they alluded to it indirectly by saying a fair proportion of the admin expenses were one-off senior recruitment costs. But yes, they could have been more transparent. And you can only pull off that trick once of course.

lambo - the RNS states "Further to our last update on 4th May 2022, Avion has submitted, via a Type C Meeting, the positive results from the Lupuzor™/P140 Pharmacokinetic ("PK") study to the FDA". To me, that suggests the Type C meeting has already taken place. What makes you think different?

Reading between the lines, a tacit admission that issuing umpteen "exciting new partner" RNS's no longer cuts it, unless sales & profits rise significantly as a result. So fewer updates going forward, but hopefully more significant when they're issued. As Aquae says, 1) disappointing there's still no real update on Sweetbiotix. And 2) this FY, Opti won't be able to rely on an increase in the value of its SBTX holding to flatter profits. In fact, likely to be quite the reverse. I also sense their repeated stress on sales becoming more lumpy might be a slight warning bell. Hopefully they can still manage to boost sales significantly again this year, whilst proving that last year's admin expenses were largely one offs. If not, Final Results to 31 Dec 22 ain't going to be pretty.

Quite

The bulk of my SMT shares were bought in Autumn/Winter 2016 at an average of 324.2p. So any inexperience doesn't seem to have done me too much harm.

learningtrader - I clearly outlined the risks and all I can say is it worked for me. Your nickname suggests the inexperienced investor may lie elsewhere?

showmethemoneyy - I agree. This latest RNS is significant, though a bit more meat on the bones in terms of numbers wouldn't have gone amiss. The bit about IQE being Lumentum's epitaxy partner of choice for LiDAR in autonomous vehicles has got to be good news, given the potential market size (& likely growth). And assuming Lumentum does what it says & begins to "ramp high volumes of differentiated solutions into even more demanding applications in the coming years", that too will be positive for IQE.

Worth reminding holders the share price back in March 22 closed at 277.5p (and 244p last July). So we're still WELL above year lows. Whatever the longer term impact (if any), I can't see this changing fundamentals for the next couple of years at least. So if the price falls back below 300p, I'll be topping up. A yield of around 4% with decent growth/earnings visibility is about as good as it gets in the current market!

Here's more info on the No Interest Loan Scheme: hTTps://fair4allfinance.org.uk/news/plans-announced-for-new-uk-wide-no-interest-loan-scheme-pilot/. A 2 year pilot's being rolled out in up to 6 deprived areas starting Autumn 22. So in any case it wouldn't hit H&T significantly during that extended trial period. But initial share price reaction suggests it might impact longer term, as a full-scale roll-out (if implemented) could eventually reach 500,000 people according to a feasibility study conducted before the pandemic.

Nonegspleeze - According to the BBC article, "a full scale roll-out could reach 500,000 people.....They can borrow between £100 and £2,000. The average amount borrowed is £500." Seeing as it's an interest-free loan, I'm surprised you can't see any negative implication for the pawnbroking industry. I still believe H&T will have a sound business, but surely this could impact it?

Hopefully the company will comment at their August interims (if not sooner).

I couldn't work out what was behind HAT's share price weakness over the past couple of days. Perhaps the following explains it, though I can't see it having a huge impact for now (though I guess it could eventually if there's a full scale rollout): hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61826209

aspex - yes, PBX has been spun off from Opti. So anyone holding Opti before the record date (25 March 22) automatically qualified for a dividend in specie of PBX shares, even if they subsequently sold their Opti shares. Given the distribution ratio of Opti shares : PBX divi entitlement, Opti shareholders were awarded less than a full PBX share per full Opti share owned. At PBX's current share price, this equates to roughly 12p worth of PBX per Opti share held. Hope this helps - and makes sense!