Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Whilst positive for SMT, the UK only represents a small fraction of Moderna's global sales and this vaccine an even smaller portion of that.

StarKnight - it's clearly going to end the day way down still. But as global trading conditions are likely to worsen this autumn/winter IMHO, I'm just glad they got it away at all. One day's share price is fairly meaningless in the scheme of things.

I'm amazed anyone buys the Investors Chronicle any more. In my experience from the deep & distant past, its hits were about as common as its misses.

I wouldn't base any TEK buying decision on that if I were you. Even if Lucyd rose well above the indicative price initially, the Nasdaq is volatile currently. Many IPOs there have soared ahead at launch, only to sink below the launch price subsequently. That said, TEK still looks a good investment to me, but only really if you got in pre- the recent rise.

These arguments all seem pretty academic to me. Bottom line is if FDA approval is granted, share price should go up. My hunch is it'd still be in single figures once the dust settled, but who knows. And if FDA approval isn't forthcoming, Avion will pick up IMM's "assets" from the administrator. I'd largely ignore Tim'n'Tim's recent bullish outlook presentation to investors. Whilst they've plenty of share options, the amount invested with their own hard cash is hardly an overwhelming vote of confidence. How come if they're SO confident of FDA approval & a successful subsequent P3 trial?

I really wouldn't pay much attention to stockanalysis.com. They earmark a date for an IPO, then simply shift it to the following week when it doesn't materialise. The same happened in April/May, when Lucyd's IPO was first pulled. I doubt IPO info on stockanalysis is much more than an AI bot, spewing out random figures once the initial scheduled date has passed.

I think not. On 22 July 2019, IQE appointed Peel Hunt as its NOMAD & Citigroup as joint Corporate Broker. So presumably a routine review three years later led them to replace Citigroup with Numis. Panic over peeps.

And whatever people think about Tesla now, it made SMT a shedload of money. They got in early, banking some profits a good while ago by reducing their holding.

Only problem is, exactly the same thing happened last time. An estimated IPO date was given, then pullled at the last minute. If you click on Mogli's link, it says "Innovative Eyewear will go public soon. The estimated IPO date is August 12, 2022." Not saying it won't happen, but by no means a certainty. That said, I'm a holder here and am reasonably optimistic the share price will be higher at some point within the next 12 months.

Agreed, though IMM is really only funded for the next 12 months assuming the FDA allows Phase 3 to proceed. Otherwise it's basically all over. I know Tim'n'Tim's recent presentation stressed all the other potential revenue streams. But these were much further into the future (assuming any succeeded). If the FDA's final guidance unexpectedly threw a spanner in the works, IMM would have an IMMense funding problem. So let's hope the BOD's confidence is finally justified this time, as we've been led down the garden path before. And the resulting share price wasn't pretty.

Morning TopCatz

Agreed. You could well be right, but it's always good to have a balance of views on these boards. Particularly when it's done in a civilised manner as you have. All the best and I hope your theory ends up being closer to the mark!

Market rally. Really? September is often the month of reckoning. With increasing inflation pretty much baked in globally for the next 12 months or so and energy prices soaring, I can't see markets remaining this sanguine for long. So where you anticipate a rally Sept onwards, I predict the current rebound will fizzle before the year's out, as the harsh reality of recession starts to bite. That said, I plan to continue holding TEK. Unless the share price goes much higher. In which case I may sell half the units I recently bought at 24p (having bought my first tranche at 32p).

Based on nothing more than thin air?

Would be deeply concerning if it WAS a military blockade. But it's not. At least, not yet.

oscar22 - resorting to rudeness. A classic sign you’ve lost the argument. Never mind.

The valuation is this low because IMM is now basically a casino stock. Tim has form looking at everything through rose-tinted spectacles, only to find the storm clouds gather & investors are then promptly struck by lightning. If the FDA approves P3, the share price should rise quite significantly. If it doesn't, the share price will fall like a stone. In the latter case, IMM would soon need further funding (which might not be forthcoming). So worst case scenario, it would simply go bust. Investing here offers little more certainty than betting the house on red.

Luckily for SMT, its fortunes aren't closely correlated to the UK economy. Whilst other countries are experiencing similar pressures, they've either reacted more aggressively (US) or more creatively (France's gas price freeze & 4% wholesale energy price cap imposed on EDF for a year, costing the company €8.4bn). Meanwhile, the BOE only started raising interest rates in December (and then only gingerly). And the best the government has come up with so far is a £400 support package per household (trickle fed in bite sized blink-and-you'll-miss-them instalments) when energy prices are forecast to rise over £1200 by October. That's really going to help sort inflation and avoid a recession. Not.

uggy100 - Andrew Bailey & his fellow BOE cronies were asleep at the wheel for far too long. They've finally woken up to the fact that inflation isn't transitory (as they'd previously pronounced). The upshot is they're now playing catch up, which means inflicting more pain for longer than if they'd done their job half properly in the first place. Some of what Bailey said today is probably also deliberate scare tactics. Shock people into reining things in and hope that this reduced demand will eventually bring inflation back down. I guess there's some merit in this, as using interest rates alone has always been a blunt tool in the fight against inflation. Whatever, I very much doubt Carney would have let this mess happen. Bailey really is a total tool, looking half asleep even when he's announcing something as important as an imminent recession (partly of his own making). I despair.

Given Tim's track record, I wouldn't believe a word he says. Not saying the FDA won't approve, just that it's still an unknown whatever he might like you to think. Does he really expect us to buy into Lanstead being so naive, they've not even done a risk/reward analysis before stomping up more cash? I mean really.

Cassandra29 - hard to tell how long the current inflationary spiral will last. But I'm slightly more optimistic than you. Inflation was caused by multiple factors. Covid meant some built up savings, as they weren't spending on the usual things like commuting, entertainment, meals out etc. This subsequently led to a temporary online spending splurge which increased prices, as stock was short whilst demand soared. Post-Covid re-opening then created an unscheduled surge in energy demand, further increasing goods prices. Putin subsequently made matters far worse for everyone - particularly the Ukrainians. IMHO, the single biggest factor determining future inflation is what happens in Ukraine. I suspect within the next 6-12 months Putin will find it much harder to sustain his current level of war funding. Many of his European energy customers will either have found alternative sources by then or had their supply shut off by Russia anyway. (A spectacular case of cutting off your nose to spite your face!) That may well cause Russia to climb down (no doubt they'll then promptly re-write history, claiming an emphatic victory just as the Russian economy implodes). An ending/reduction in hostilities should ease the pressure on energy prices. Though if Russia is still sanctioned by the West, its supplies may not be fully utilised unless China can mop up the surplus. Rising interest rates - and potentially global recession - should also curb inflation. If demand for goods and services falls, so will oil prices. So my best guess is that inflation will start falling some time next year. But it's still really anyone's guess. Shorter term, I think recession is almost inevitable in the UK (and in the US - at least by our way of measuring). So I don't see current market strength being sustainable much beyond this month. As I said before, September is often markets' month of reckoning. Which is why I'm planning to liquidate some of my trading shares PDQ.