Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Yes, an interesting development, though I’m slightly dubious the Senate will pass it.

And even if they do, how enforceable would it ever be, what with VPNs etc?

TW’s hardly in a better position than SOH to know the likely launch timing.

Baffles me why anyone would give him the time of day.

I should partly retract my previous comment today, as I've just seen this partersnhip was referenced in their 27 Feb commercial update with "forecast sales for OptiBiotix in Y1 of £1.2m and Y5 of £6.7m".

So it looks like it's forecast to build gradually, but with some sales from Y1. How these sales (if achieved) will translate into profit is yet to be seen.

Martinu - the wording in SOH’s forecast is weaselly IMHO.

I take it to mean he estimates £6-7m revenue p.a. after 4-5 years.

That could be via gradual year-on-year increases. But it could equally mean very low sales in the early set up stages, followed by a large lump of cash once set up is complete. Any figures are a welcome development, as they’ve been sadly lacking with past partnership announcements. But more transparency is still needed.

Thanks Hardboy

I take your point about dividends. However there’ll be some institutional & many private investors (myself included) who bought in partly for the decent yield. And whilst 13% growth isn’t to be sneezed at, it’s out of step with the annual increase in most of H&T’s other business metrics, notably EPS.

So not quite my definition of a progressive dividend policy - and a dangerous area to meddle with too much if you value shareholder loyalty.

Traditionally they’ve been pretty successful at putting capital to good use and I welcome the news of modest store increases & a significant estate refurb programme. The IT upgrades make eminent sense in theory (& so far so good), providing they deliver in practice without cost overruns.

I’m more sceptical about their acquisition of Maxcroft (or at least the price paid), even though diversification into short term small business lending makes sense. Time will tell I guess.

Out of interest, do you (or any other posters) also hold Ramsdens? They issued a fairly bullish update on 11 March, leading to a c. 10% up-rate. But it too remains around 15% below its recent share price peak.

I view all broker notes with scepticism & wouldn't pay too much attention to Liberum's latest.

Owning H&T shares, I certainly don't recall them issuing THREE downgrades in the past year. There was one in January '24, but can anyone point to the other two?

H&T has - in any case - since reassured the market with its Prelims this morning. And its share price has responded well so far.

Hopefully some of this will eventually rub off on RFX too. I don't hold Ramsdens currently, but view this whole industry as pretty attractive & significantly undervalued right now. Decent dividends from both players too!

5percent - filtered.

Others might do the same after running through your posts on H&T. To me, they smack of someone with a clear agenda.

Pokerchips - I agree with your comments.

Oscar22 & Moneymule888 are pretty much at opposite ends of the spectrum here, whilst reality probably lies somewhere in between.

I suspect IMM's share price will - at some stage - rise significantly above its current level once Lupozor's next Phase 3 readout is imminent (assuming we ever get that far). But assuming this is the case, I won't wait for the trial result to sell the majority of my holding. This could mean I miss out massively. But it could equally help me recoup my current losses (and some, hopefully), before reality - once again - hits.....

Hardboy - a sense of relief seems to be the general market reaction to today's Prelimary Results.

It was certainly mine, as there were no new nasties I could see.

My main takeaways:

POSITIVES

* Recently increased loan interest rates should boost FY pawnbroking margin

* Retail prices have now been increased & margins are expected to improve in 2024

* Retail held up well through January & February (after a sticky December)

* Retail mix to shift slightly, from new (lower margin) to pre-owned (higher margin) jewellery, as the pledge book grows

* Stores acquired/opened in the last 3 -4 years all trading at/above original forecast level

* ROE up 25% YOY & targeted to increase a further 25% or so in the medium term (from 12.4% to mid teens %)

* Store numbers likely to grow 4%-5% annually

NEGATIVES

* Employee costs will continue to rise above the headline inflation rate in 2024

* Relatively modest dividend growth for 2023 of +13%, from 15p to 17p

* Continued roll out of IT upgrades. Whilst they've integrated smoothly so far, these sort of projects have a nasty habit of imploding &/or generating significant cost overruns

CaptainPicard - agreed.

However, I’d like SMT to publish monthly share VOLUME updates on all its holdings, which I think are only divulged periodically at the moment.

The problem with relying on percentages alone is that they often fluctuate wildly with shares like Nvidia. Simplistically, if a company SMT originally held 2% in rapidly triples in value, all other things being equal it would subsequently show as 6% of the fund’s total holdings.

This might lead you to conclude SMT had been extra canny, adding further volume to its winners. Whereas in reality, whilst the initial selection WAS canny, the fund hasn’t actually increased the share volume in that particular holding at all.

Not sure if I’ve expressed that very clearly (it’s late), but hopefully you get the gist!

Lambo222 - you totally misinterpreted IMM's radio silence as a sign a dilutive fundraise was imminent.

Now I fear you're also misinterpreting today's RNS as a sign"partner deals clearly very close".

There are NO guarantees any partner deals are close. However, there IS clarity IMM has sufficient cash for now, having slashed its overheads & acquired warrants & a near 11% holding in Incanthera.

Incanthera finally seems to be going places, following the announcement of its commercial deal with Marionnaud, an A S Watson subsidiary.

So yes, this news IS positive for IMM in the short to medium term. Just not for the reason you give.

5percent - get well soon.

Flash212 - you say "nothing new in todays update apart from saying we are not going bust".

For now, that in itself dispels a HUGE cloud that was hovering over investors' minds.

I also think you've (deliberately?) ignored the clarification on significantly reduced overheads & the value of IMM's shareholding & warrants in Incanthera, which are exercisable any time.

Before today, the biggest worry was that IMM would simply run out of cash before it could monetise any of its drug developments.

After today, that fear has - at least in the short to medium term - disappeared.

5percent - I wouldn't presume to call anyone an idiot and am sorry if that's what you felt.

I was, however, questioning what seemed like a contradictory set of posts from you recently.

The fact that the charts seemed OK when you bought but don't now, just shows why charts are of very limited value to investors IMHO. Relying on the recent past to predict the future can sometimes work. But it's equally likely not to.

If everything's cool & there's no need to panic, how come the share price is constantly trending lower?

Only reason I can think is that investors are spooked by the lack of any update. And they suspect funds are running dry.

Given the sharp share price drop, when news finally comes, investors are currently assuming it ain't gonna be pretty.

5percent - so you bought into H&T, despite admitting you hadn't done much/any research into it.

Now you're looking at their chart & deciding it looks bad.

All I can say is either your posts & motives are suspect - or you've a VERY bizarre way of investing.

BTW - a recession/weak economy has GOT to be good overall for H&T & other pawnbrokers. As I explained before, the bulk of their sales & profits come from lending rather than retail activity. When times are tough, more people need loans.

Puma33 - you've missed my point (so apologies if my last post confused the issue).

What I meant to say is that not so terribly long ago, Topcatz confidently predicted Tek would smash its way upwards, leaving the 45p SP level trembling in its wake. The reality is somewhat different.

Badsterman - enjoy Tenerife. I always try to post positively when I feel a company is being well run and has decent short to medium term prospects. In Tek's case, my negativity is kinda justified by the share price direction over the past 18 months or so, no?

It never ceases to amaze me how some apparently keep the faith in Tek, despite the way it's currently being mismanaged. I almost reckon there'd still be a handful of posters confidently tipping it as a screaming buy as it fell into administration. Not that I'm suggesting that's even remotely likely. But you get my drift.

Whilst there's some overlap between SMT & PCT/ATT, there are significant differences too. You're not really comparing apples with apples.

So IMHO referring to them in the same breath doesn't really get us anywhere. Yes, PCT/ATT have recently significantly outperformed SMT. But you can selectively choose other periods where the opposite's true.

I'm not saying PCT & ATT haven't been great long term investments - PCT in particular clearly has. But that doesn't make SMT duff. Nor is it necessarily a reliable indicator of their relative future performance.

5percent - since you say you're invested in H&T, I presume you've already researched the various strands that combine to make up their sales & profit?

I'd be rather puzzled if you hadn't bothered doing this before committing to their shares. But if that's the case, I'd suggest taking a look at their previous years' results fairly pronto.

Whilst retail sales are important, they only form one element of H&T's revenues. Some of the other large elements (pawnbroking, gold purchasing, pawnbroking scrap etc) are far more likely to excel in a recession, thus counterbalancing any potential retail softness.

In FY 2022, H&T's sales were £173-941m of which retail represented "only" £45.197m.

Hopefully you get my point now?

Alex - I hope it works out for you. But with all due respect, buying under £4k's worth of bombed out IMM shares is not really a huge vote of confidence in anything.

Just a straight out gamble, putting it all on black at the roulette table.