Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Seamanp911 - you say: “Just seems ridiculously low now and a complete disconnect with the portfolio values.”

Not sure why you use the word “now”? It’s been like that for years. And there are several very good reasons why nothing’s ever going to change, unless Tek’s business model fundamentally alters.

Many on here heralded Lucyd’s IPO as a game changer. Which it was. Only not in the right way.

They then said Microsalt’s float would reverse Tek’s poor run & turbocharge the share price. It hasn’t.

Now we’re being fed some nonsense about AI (purely because it’s the latest buzzword) & are told THIS, Rodney, will turn things round for Tek & we’ll soon be millionaires. Most rational investors get the general picture by now. Tek simply hasn’t demonstrated with a single one of its existing holdings how to extract any shareholder value (other than to pay Clifford his overinflated salary & bonus). Until this radically changes, Tek continues to remain totally uninvestable in my book.

Shano1 - I hear what you’re saying. But sometimes, trusts can get lumbered with a reputation for longer than they deserve. Other times it’s fully justified!

I guess the managers here feel it’s the former and are trying to address some investor disquiet. If their plan works, there won’t be many on here saying they should purely have stuck to the knitting.

Hardboy - I really wouldn’t bother trying to reason with him/her, if I were you!

I think we've done today's RNS to death now.

there is a fundamental difference between the words "and" & "or2.

Anyone who doesn't get that by now really shouldn't be investing in anything.

Shame about the SlimE biome!

Thefrogster - thanks. Whilst there might be a few who - through bad luck, poor advice or recklessness - burn through their retirement funds far too quickly, I'm a firm believer the majority won't.

Give people the option to manage their own destiny and most will do so responsibly IMHO.

Anyhow, I guess we should probably steer posts back to SMT itself now!

Tambo210 - totally disagree I'm afraid.

People are far more likely to research (or get independent advice) when their future's in their own hands & on the line. Sure, some will get things badly wrong still. But that's no different from the risk faced by private sector employees. And why on earth should it be?

Also, I firmly believe public sector employees must be weaned off any feeling they're entitled to final salary protection at retirement. There's currently too much of a cotton wool mentality. Removing these schemes might well mean public sector base salaries aligned more closely with the private sector. But that would still be far less costly than the status quo. Keeping these schemes going when they're placing an unsustainable burden on the state is plain financial illiteracy IMHO.

As I said before, the government has tweaked pension rules elsewhere by extending the retirement age. So it can be done. That too, meant some had to re-think their finances & postpone retirement. I suspect governments of whichever colour still need to go much further & faster on pension reform, if we're ever going to plug the huge gap in public service finances.

Flash212 - it's YOU who needs to re-read the RNS.

It quite clearly states:

"All Share Options will vest at the latter of:

· When the Company has completed a new commercial deal of significant value; AND (my capitals)

· 3 years from the date of issue"

The word "and" means they wouldn't vest at the end of 3 years without a new commercial deal of significant value within that period.

Having said all this, the phrase "significant value" is very wishy-washy. Why not put an actual minimum value on it?

I also don't like the fact that "The Remuneration Committee will determine when these conditions have been met". Talk about marking your own homework.

Laughton - positive yes. But that data relates to the period H&T has already reported on.

I’d argue it’s more what happens THIS year that’ll influence H&T’s share price going forward. Whilst I suspect the economy will pick up slightly, I’m doubtful of any significant improvement. So the environment for H&T should stay fairly benign IMHO.

Tambo210 - on average, wages are still increasing in real terms, so IMHO we're definitely NOT out of the wage spiral danger zone yet.

April's 9.8% National Living Wage increase won't help in that regard (though it WILL benefit those on lower wages, which many will welcome). I guess there's only a certain amount any government can affordably do to encourage the economically inactive back into work. Improvements to childcare is another area that looks sensible in theory. But if nurseries still can't afford - or find enough qualified staff - to offer the extra places, it's not really going to work.

I don't have a great deal of time for the BOE, though I do think they're right to tread cautiously with interest rate drops (largely because they took too long to increase rates in the first place). Whilst I fully expect UK inflation to drop below 2% temporarily this year on the back of energy deflation, I doubt it'll stay there that long. My hunch is that we'll see one, or at the most two x 0.25% falls in UK base rate this year. And that the EU & US will follow a similarly cautious path.

As for public sector final salary pensions, workers seem to conveniently forget the huge benefits these offer when negotiating wage settlements or arguing how underpaid they are relative to the private sector. I personally can't understand why the government hasn't already moved to money purchase schemes for ALL new joiners in the public sector. Suspect it's only a matter of time. Sure, it wouldn't be popular. But neither was increasing the state pension retirement age. Yet they've bitten the bullet on that - and will have to continue to do so.

Just following up on my last post, I know Dallo said " Please contact Tim or Lisa to obtain independent clarification on this".

However, neither of them is neutral. Hence my request to point to where the FDA - rather than IMM employees - has issued this information.

Wildbunch - you're correct in saying "Loads picked this up from nobbygnome on the ADVFN board where both contribute". And I will apologise if it's shown to be wrong.

Whilst nobbygnome & I differ on some issues, he clearly has a great deal of highly relevant experience in this field. He was the one who highlighted the inadequate dosage issue, for example, YEARS before it came to light during the last failed P3 trial.

It would be helpful if Dallo could point to where, exactly, the FDA has stated the following:

"However after further review and consultation between all parties, it was considered that a full Phase 3 incorporating a dosage testing regime , the results of which would be released during a number of interim breakpoints in the trial. The FDA is apparently satisfied with this strategy."

"Apparently satisfied" sounds more like hearsay than fact to me. But I'm not saying Dallo's wrong, just asking for the written evidence, so we can put this issue to bed either way.

GoldGirl - you should be aware they HAVEN’T totally taken the FDA’s advice on board in terms of the new trial protocol.

Going straight to another P3 trial is against the FDA’s recommendation.

Trouts - I totally agree with UK Rail & Telecomms.

But Energy doesn’t work that way - as the now announced April 2024 price cap drop demonstrates.

Nor has Water mirrored inflation historically, though prices ARE set to rise dramatically from April:

www.ofwat.gov.uk/average-bills-press-statement-2024-25/

Re: Telecoms - Ofcom are reviewing mid-contract real term price increases. But their terms of reference look pathetically weak - they’re more concerned about clarity, than whether companies should be allowed to move the goalposts in the first place:

www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2023/review-of-inflation-linked-telecoms-price-rises

Just one more point on inflation. My gut feel is that in the UK (& to a lesser extent the US & EU), its trajectory will be quite uneven.

At home, the energy price cap drop in April - & probably again in July? - will have a major impact on headline inflation. That’s likely to lead to increased calls for the BOE to cut interest rates more quickly & aggressively. But they’ll be looking at underlying inflation & wage settlements too, which may well tell a rather different story. The 9.8% NLW increase from 1 April will, in itself, be quite inflationary.

Having been way too slow IMHO to increase interest rates initially, I suspect the BOE will now have to be equally slow & cautious when it comes to dropping rates. Had they acted sooner, they could have squeezed inflation out of the system far more effectively, but hey ho.

Ubik_Fresh - I agree, market sentiment should improve generally as interest rates gradually start to fall. This could be particularly beneficial for SMT’s unlisted holdings & the prospects of one or more of them IPO’ing.

I don’t think we’ll have to wait until next year for the tide to turn, though I suspect both inflation & interest rate drops will be far slower & more drawn out than current market consensus.

So they announce a buyback of up to £1bn over 2 years (representing about 8.7% of SMT's current market cap) & the share price instantly rises over 5% (despite no new repurchases being RNS'd today).

Maybe they should do it more often!

Seriously, though, such a significant upgrading of their buyback scheme suggests managers are confident & feel the current discount to NAV is unjustified. Will be interesting to see the longer term impact.

I found this presentation useful.

Also, reassuring to know they don't just make the questions up, as mine (about progressive dividend policy) was amongst the ones asked.

There clearly remains a bit of investor disquiet about H&T's latest acquisition. But they were at pains to reassure us it met all their financial criteria & should bring valuable experience on commercial divergence, which they can then roll out to other stores. As well as its valuable pledgebook, Maxcroft has clearly been successful with forex sales, where H&T has experienced slower than anticipated growth recently. So they may be able to help boost this side of the business. Jury's out I guess. And Gillespie avoided saying how long Maxcroft's husband & wife owners would stay on as consultants. But for now, I'm happy to give them the benefit of the doubt, as H&T's management has generally been conservative & sound in the past.

Interesting they could envisage the store estate rising to 350 in the medium term, albeit probably "only" adding 8-12 units this FY. Also, good news that after a strong January, the first half of March has been similarly robust.

Spinal_Tap - it could.

On the other hand, so could the Guident, Lucyd & Salt holdings have been.

And look how they've turned out in terms of Tek's share price.

Good luck if you really added. I personally think Tek is totally uninvestable right now, even at this beaten up SP.

Elrico - surely that sort of information is potentially market-sensitive, so should never be divulged to an individual prior to the general public?