Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Sure, but not worth reading too much into one morning's movement. If you look at performance over one month for example, SMT has outperformed PCT. Though this is equally irrelevant IMHO.

It's the long term trend that counts. For now, PCT has significantly outperformed over 5 & 10 years. So you either switch to PCT if you think this pattern will continue. Or you stick with SMT if you don't.

In any case, how would anyone - other than employees - know when the trial was about to start. It hasn't been announced.

Yorkshirehussar - then (s)he should have said so.

If anyone thinks we're "nearly there with Lupuzor", they really don't understand the whole process AT ALL.

Worse than a running commentary on the gee gees.

FOMO is never a good reason for buying shares.

Vrunk - you’ve posted on the wrong board. IQE has never paid a dividend.

* the frogSter. Apologies!

Thefrogter - you're welcome!

Given their interventions elsewhere, I think it unlikely Elliott are in it purely for a short term flip. Quite apart from anything else, they'd have probably bailed already, when the share price nudged £8.94. But you never know.

Meanwhile SMT's buybacks continue apace and volumes will hopefully increase in line with any continuation of the share price drop.

Fact remains IQE is heavily loss-making - and is projected to remain so this year.

I think things will improve within the next year, but a lot of that is now already priced in.

Thefrogster - thanks for that. Though I can't vouch for its accuracy, I've since found the following article on re-valuation frequency, which states: "Valuations for Scottish Mortgage’s private holdings, and all of Baillie Gifford’s trusts with unquoted exposure, are carried out by internal committees with input from an independent third party, IHS Markit. The private holdings are re-valued on a rolling-three-month cycle, with a third of the unlisted holdings valued every 30 days. However, pricing is monitored daily by Baillie Gifford’s private valuations team."

The full article, dating back to June 22 can be found here:

portfolio-adviser.com/are-scottish-mortgages-unquoted-valuations-detached-from-reality/

Wiltshireman - I suspect lemmings have a lot to do with it. The results were pretty awful, though admittedly this was known well in advance. The outlook statement was cautiously optimistic - nothing more.

Throw in the word "AI" currently & everyone goes wild. Regardless of its relevance.

Walp - I can’t comment on SMT’s performance relative to ATT/PCT as I don’t hold or follow either of those.

I suspect SMT’s fairly high proportion of unlisted holdings is still a drag on sentiment. So this might explain part of the disparity. Though the managers have suggested these holdings are regularly re-valued & that this is done independently of the fund managers (& more often than once a year I thought?). Sentiment here could change though, either if one or more unlisted holdings IPO’s. Or when inflation is finally seen to be tamed and rates start to drop, which is then likely to make growth stocks in particular - and shares in general - more attractive compared to cash.

I actually think it’s better in the long run if the Fed & BOE take their time to ensure inflation is properly under control before introducing any rate cuts.

They’ve sometimes jumped the gun in the past, only to see inflation creep back up again.

Guess I’ve a slight vested interest here too! I moved cash savings into long term fixed / base rate tracker accounts around the middle of last year, suspecting rates might stay higher for longer than market consensus at the time.

As for SMT, most of the impact of Elliott’s initial intervention & the boosted buyback scheme feels like it might be priced in by now. It’ll be interesting to see how Elliott’s endgame unfolds. Will they be happy to encash their stake within the next few months, assuming they can realise a decent profit? Or are they in it for the longer term, intent on agitating for more radical reform? Answers on a postcard please!

Brighty1 - things ARE sounding slightly more positive, but I'd hardly call FY 2024 revenue of between £133.7m to £153.7m exciting. If correct, the company would still be losing shedloads of money AFTER interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

So in my book, a triple digit share price remains a pipedream in the short to medium term. That said, my guess is the share price COULD double from its current level within the next 2-3 years. But there'll be plenty more bumps along the road.

Formerlyeasyp - Firstly I disagree the gains are modest - IMM closed at just 0.85p on 4 March.

Secondly, I don't think it's "just optimism driven". Earler this year, there was real concern IMM would run out of cash, necessitating another placing.

Their 6 March RNS allayed those fears somewhat, stating "the financing position of the Company is sufficient for its immediate requirements and it has no current plans to raise equity through the capital markets". IMM's share price responded accordingly.

Admittedly, the exact wording in this RNS was somewhat qualified (IMMEDIATE requirements .... CURRENT plans). But it was better than nothing & helped reassure investors. For now at least.

Why M&A now, when a CVA - at a lower price still - appears by far the most likely outcome?

Businesses aren't daft and the lack of any offers to date suggests suitors aren't exactly queuing up here.

So the gamble for any interested third party is:

a) bid now to gain first mover advantage, but be forced to pay a premium for the "privilege"

or b) hold fire in the belief there isn't a great deal of bidding competition and that you'll be able to pick up the pieces you want far cheaper post-CVA, assuming that's the end result here.

Spinal_Tap - that's OK for now - IF you bought directly into Microsalt.

SALT's share price is currently still around 40% above IPO, though also around 40% off its mid-February peak.

But the problem is, none of the above has done Tek's share price ANY favours whatsoever. Which simply reinforces my point that Tek's current business model is totally uninvestable.

I really don't see why this is so difficult to grasp.

Seamanp911 - not sure how many times you need to be told Tek's current business model is uninvestable before the penny drops?

We already know the results aren’t going to be good, with yet another loss-making year.

The only thing that’ll drive the share price next Wednesday will be the outlook statement. And it’ll need firm new order numbers if our fortunes are to improve. Not the usual vague jam tomorrow promises, which never materialise.