Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Leistertheinvestor - there’s a reason why the FDA suggests their preferred trial protocol. And I think it’s safe to assume it stems from their vast experience of previous comparable trials.

Of course, every trial is different and IMM is perfectly within its rights to say it wants a different design. I suspect this was motivated as much by speed (& cost) as the likelihood of a better readout, though obviously all parties ultimately want it to succeed.

My understanding is that the FDA wouldn’t normally prevent ANY trial design from proceeding, unless they had concerns on patient safety grounds. So in this instance, IMM would have been free to proceed. After all, it’s their (our!) money. But IMHO that doesn’t mean it convinced the FDA their alternative trial design was better - or even as good - as a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial.

PJMaaa - there certainly does appear to be resistance around £9.

But it doesn't largely seem to be "thanks" to any widening NAV discount. Give or take 2-3%, that's remained fairly stable since April.

I guess what may be needed to move the sentiment dial is for one or more of SMT's private holdings to stage a successful IPO.

SpaceX? Well maybe not an IPO just yet. But in May 2024, Bloomberg reported SpaceX plans to sell shares at $108 to $110 apiece in a tender offer that could value the company at roughly $200 billion.

GoldGirl - Immupharma HASN'T fully gone "in line with FDA suggestions" as you suggest.

Their "recommendation" was for a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial and IMM initially agreed to this. Before subsequently changing their mind & opting for a Phase 3 study including dose range.

It's rarely sensible to go against FDA guidance, but we'll see.

Dallo - I don't know Lisa's style (having never contacted her). But wouldn't she still reply, if only to say she can't comment right now due to the closed period?

Sounds a bit ominous to me (unless she's away of course). But then presumably she'd have set an out of office auto reply.

How do you know it was a buy?

Whilst the price might have suggested that, IQE traded lower for most of yesterday and ended the day down, so I'm not totally convinced.

Either way, it didn't do us any great favours!

Nolupus - Do your figures take into account the terms of the Definitive Licence Agreement? These included Incanthera making a licence payment to ImmuPharma of £1m via new ordinary shares in Incanthera?

Either way, the move looks sound, given Incanthera's subsequent dilutive placing at 15p announced this morning. Doubtless IMM were - ahem - "given advance warning", without any insider trading laws whatsoever being broken.

Thanks formerlyeasyp.

Interestingly, when a 12 month extension to the warrant instrument was agreed on 21 August 2023, Incanthera's shares cost 6.35p. What a difference a year makes!

Moneymule888 - you say "Those warrant options won’t be activated as IMM can’t afford to do so."

Clearly that's wrong.

IMM has just realised £1.5m from the sale of its Incanthera holding. Exercising its c7.3 million warrants at 9.5p would cost it less than half that at around £694k. Assuming Incanthera's share price holds at around 20p, why on earth wouldn't IMM double their money & exercise the warrants before they expire on 6 Sept 2024?

I suspect that's exactly why they just sold their full Incanthera holding. Reatian just over half & fund the warrants with the other half. Assuming the two Tims have enough brain cells between them to work out this fairly simple bit of maths.

BillfromBristol - yes, obviously those Salt sales are from last FY (ending 31 Dec 23).

And yesterday they added "the rollout of MicroSalt across new and/or further B2B product lines has been slower than hoped during the current year to date".

I agree Microsalt's fortunes could change rapidly. But as things stand today, you've a company generating scarcely over £500k in annual sales, producing £ multi million annual losses, yet capitalised at almost £43m. That's plain nuts. Barring the announcement PDQ of some huge new sales contracts, I suspect today's bounceback will be very short-lived.

Theoakbloke has a point.

But what he fails to mention is that post-this morning's slight rebound, SALT's market cap exceeds £41m.

That value is taking an awful lot of growth for granted, when current FY sales are c. £470k & the company just lost around £2.75m.

Openheimer - I'm only an indirect holder of Salt (via Tek), but I agree with you.

Amongst all the jam tomorrow stuff, there were two other salient (geddit) points in today's results:

1. FY 2023 revenue of US$ 0.6m (2022: US$ 0.6m) and net loss of US$ 3.5m (2022: US$2.5m)

2. 2024 set to be a key year, whilst acknowledging the rollout of MicroSalt across new and/or further B2B product lines has been slower than hoped during the current year to date

Cm22 - I think you're mistaken about SALT when you say "Slightly disappointing that the new customers haven't shown up in the revenues yet, although it was 2023...."

Their RNS states "2024 set to be a key year ... whilst acknowledging the rollout of MicroSalt across new and/or further B2B product lines has been slower than hoped DURING THE CURRENT YEAR TO DATE." (my caps).

To me, this references a slower rollout than expected in 2024 to date, NOT 2023.

I did say all along that Tate & Lyle couldn't make commercial success of a similar product - Soda-Lo - years ago. Jury's still out as to whether Microsalt - with far more limited experience & resources - can succeed where T&L failed:

www.tateandlyle.com/sites/default/files/2017-08/SODA-LO%C2%AE%20Salt%20Microspheres-Sell%20Sheet%20EMEA-112216_A4_EN-GB%20(1).pdf

Legin252 - if, as you claim, it was "very likely that the appraisal well will be positive", it's very UNlikely the current share price would be where it is.

You say yourself "the SP will be in the £’s at production". Firstly, that's just an opinion wrapped up as fact. Secondly, why would the current share price be less than a fifth of what you claim it'll get to on production, if the odds were so favourable?

I am a holder here. But I think it's important to point out that however good the management's experience & however strong the funding in place, this is an out-&-out gamble still. Very high potential reward, but very high risk.

Hmmm. Whilst Microsalt COULD be on the cusp of bigger things, their YE results show it's currently still jam/salt tomorrow:

"FY 2023 revenue of US$ 0.6m (2022: US$ 0.6m) and net loss of US$ 3.5m (2022: US$2.5m) reflecting efforts focused on R&D and preparation for the launch of the first two major food manufacturing customers within the Company's B2B solution.

2024 set to be a key year where MicroSalt is expected to receive recurring commercial volume purchase orders for its bulk product, whilst acknowledging the rollout of MicroSalt across new and/or further B2B product lines has been slower than hoped during the current year to date."

Meanwhile, Tek continues to build on its sum-of-the-parts discount, as predicted.

Spinal_Tap - whilst you’d think so, there hasn’t been that strong a correlation to the upside between Salt & Tek’s share prices to date.

Same applies with its other holdings, which is why Tek trades at such a huge discount to NAV.

Lordmakealot - well Aim HAS reacted. But - perhaos unsurprisingly - not in the way you thought.

Always best to go by the official company figures.

Trek - I’m no expert on gas exploration shares. But to me, Hex is likely to follow a similar pattern to a drug entering the make-or-break approval phase.

Speculation will likely drive the share price up immediately pre- & during drill. A bit like a drug entering Phase 3. Then, depending on the success of this stage, the price either rockets or plummets. We’d have a multibagger on our hands if the appraisal indicates commercial levels of helium. Equally, we could be talking a 95+% share price drop in the worst case scenario.

Do you think that’s a fair summary?

Badsterman - I’m sure you’re right. Seems a pretty daft rule though, when it can easily be overridden just by doing a share consolidation.

Surely Nasdaq should be more concerned about companies rapidly losing most of their market capital, than whether their share price simply dips below some arbitrary value.

Shano1 - that analyst may be right. Then again, they may not.

But when you’ve already made a 50 fold+ return on a holding, it’s only prudent to bank a few profits. Even after this, NVDA remains SMT’s biggest holding by value. And there may now be other opportunities for that cash which are more likely to go up 50 fold than Nvidia is to repeat its previous success.