Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Oldapache - I am indeed speculating here. As is any investor with any share to a greater or lesser extent.

All I'm trying to do is inject a bit of balance into this board.

Otherwise I fear there's a danger of being blinded by highly speculative long term predictions & valuations. And insodoing, completely overlooking the many downside risks.

Overall, I've taken the view that the potential reward outweighs these risks. But I don't think it's nearly as one-sided as a few on here are suggesting. And before you ask, I'm not pointing at you in particular with that comment by the way!

Cm22 - I assume you're referring to when Tek's lock in period with Microsalt ends.

Let's hope we finally reap some form of special dividend reward, after being promised it from multiple holdings for so long.

Only problem is, share prices have a nasty habit of adjusting (downwards), just before/as significant lock in periods expire.

Oldapache - we’re in the realms of total speculation there. Regardless of whether the BOD alluded to a future market cap of that magnitude.

The BOD is hardly a neutral commentator when it comes to valuing the future potential of their company.

PompeyM - Personally I'd be amazed to see anything like as much as 93p by the autumn, even if all goes to plan. But we'll see.

My hope is to sell half - having doubled my money - (I got in post-IPO), then to let the rest run as a "free bet". But I also recognise I could lose pretty much everything here if there are unforeseen developments. Which is why I'd never bet the house on anything like this.

Badsterman - your points may be valid. But all Tek shareholders care about is Tek's share price.

And that has been an abject investment failure for most so far. And we've been waiting for the upwards re-rate more than long enough already.

Oldapache - 600k shares @ £3ps. Where does your £3 figure come from?!

Tiburn//PompeyM - I think we’re broadly in agreement, all of us presumably being holders here and viewing the same thing - only from slightly different angles. I have to say though that if Oak Securities’ (or anyone else’s) valuation was so nailed on, how come the current share price is barely a fifth? That in itself illustrates all the uncertainties & possible pitfalls ahead, as well as the potential for a significant upward re-rate.

Contingent resources means POTENTIALLY recoverable.

Adjacent means adjoining, but not in the exact same location.

Targeting means aiming for but not necessarily achieving.

I don’t mean to be negative as I like the way the Rudyard deal was structured. And it could turn out to be a real goldmine. But could does not necessarily equal will.

Tiburn - the key word in that quote towards the end of your post is "adjacent".

I like the de-risking element provided by Rudyard, but it, too, isn't proven yet. Adjacency isn't the same as on-site.

Aquae- agreed.

They should maybe push a subscription model far harder in future marketing.

I see they offer it on Amazon, with a 10-15% discount, depending on re-order frequency.

H&B offer some even deeper discounts for subscriptions on selected products, which doubtless encourages a fair proportion of customers to lock in.

Whilst the discount would erode margins, it might well still pay off overall in terms of lower advertising & customer acquisition costs.

Forget newspaper ads.

Online’s where it’s at. They seem to be selling OK on Amazon, but should maybe trial an Amazon specialist consultancy & see if there’s any significant sales uplift.

Customer reviews there are average but not great which is a slight concern.

As I said before, the right influencer capable of creating a credible viral campaign could also really transform things.

With any investment, you need to look at the total return.

Sure, the yield here is great. But over the past 5 years, the share price has trended lower.

If you make - say - 30% over 3 years from the dividends, but lose 30% in terms of the share price, you've actually made zilch.

I don't think anyone doubts the demand.

The issue remains whether Hex will be able to meet any of it. And we won't begin to know that for at least another few months.

PompeyM - I'd say Hex is a huge gamble, whatever the size of your holding.

Sure, it could be more lucrative/more devastating if you bet the house on it.

But, as I said before, it's largely a binary bet on the drilling outcome. So a huge gamble in that it's totally unpredictable (however good the omens might appear).

Hard to tell what'll happen to the share price in Q3 whilst we're awaiting updates.

I've always thought HEX might react in a similar way to a drugs company awaiting its P3 endpoints read out. In which case, the likelihood is it'll rise significantly as the drills progress (but before the outcome's known).

Then once results are published, it'll either zoom up like a newly-filled helium balloon or plunge rapidly back down to earth & explode, like one of Musk's early SpaceX launches.

Growmorecash - some probably did sell at the peak.

Others will have held out for more, then seen they weren't going to get it - in the short term at least.

Once the share price started to slide, human nature dictates that some will have panicked & locked in gains as the SP began drifting down from 25.5p to today's level.

The uneasiness is fairly easily explained. Drilling will soon be starting & the share price is a fairly binary bet on the unpredictable outcome.

Growmorecash - some who got in around the 10p mark will probably want to recoup their original capital by halving their holding now the share price has doubled. They can then keep the balance as a "free" bet.

As HEX has slid slightly from its closing peak of 25.5p on 14th June, more of those early investors are likely to "panic-sell" around half of their original investment to lock in gains & keep their initial outlay safe.

I plan to do the same. But having got in later, I'm having to wait longer. And I run the risk the price never reaches my target of a doubling.

I'm guessing there's a slight lemming effect going on at the moment, as early investors crystallise gains. And that could well be partly responsible for the current price drift.

Sure, helium is a highly sought after commodity. But whatever Hex's skills & expertise, there are still no guarantees any of its drills will lead to commercialisation.

I liken this to a XXXX or bust share, with better prospects than some other explorers, but a huge gamble nonetheless.

Q3 & Q4 will dictate whether today's SP was ridiculously cheap or hopelessly expensive.

Bazzaman - the real muppets are the institutions that keep voting Cliff in.

Crozy - feathering his own nest more like!

I used to think SOH was a straightforward kind of guy, with plenty of skin in the game.

I suspect that's still the case. My main worry now is whether he - & his fellow cronies - are just a bit clueless when it comes to sales & marketing.

Elrico can bang the drum all he likes about Slimbiome's latest reach announcement.

However, despite his protestations to the contrary, it is (using his words) a "nothing burger".

Studies are all well & good. But there comes a time when the science is established and further research is superfluous.

If the science is so compelling, how come the sales aren't?

Forget any more scientific studies. Instead, just try marketing your products effectively. Oh, and stop paying yourselves way over-inflated salaries until the sales & profits actually justify it.

Here endeth today's rant.

For me, alarm bells sounded when my (admittedly awkward) questions for May's "Investor Meet" were all totally ignored.

I now hold purely on the hope (but not conviction) that Sweetbiotix will eventually gain traction, leading to a re-rate.

Tempting though it might be to add at this beaten up level, I'll resist the urge. History suggests you could just be throwing good money after bad.