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Badsterman - so "Topcatz thinks the TEK chart looks good", does he?

Well that's a huge relief to all concerned.

Oh wait, is that the same TopCatz who tipped Tek as a Buy at 45p just over a year back?

We've already just experienced a recession. Whether or not this technically continues into Q1 2024 is largely irrelevant IMHO.

The UK economy's hardly going to grow at all this year, people will still be experiencing price pressures & pawnbrokers are likely to benefit overall from this (even if their retail sales remain soft).

AConceptIsABrick - Yup. Though sadly, Tek hasn't banked ANY proceeds from Salt's IPO. That's the whole problem. It's locked in there for a year.

Which is why it's having to go cap in hand elsewhere. Diluting the very investors it enticed years ago with promises of special dividend payouts well before now.

Scoobydoo321 - It's certainly on a VERY undemanding P/E for a company that's consistently profitable, with a progressive dividend policy - and a decent yield.

That said, market sentiment for this sector has definitely deteriorated in recent months (check out RFX too). So even at the current SP level, I guess things could get a bit worse before they get better. But I'm not too worried about holding at this level.

I had hoped to recoup my entire outlay this month, in return for selling 75% of the shares I bought in January at 319p (day of TU). But they've not hit my limit sell price yet. H&T's recent acquisition RNS did little to help! So it looks like I'll just have to be slightly more patient, consoling myself with a higher than anticipated dividend payout in the meantime.

Alexbottlier - fair enough to disagree with lambo, but all your toing & froing is little more than a smokescreen IMHO.

Assuming he's wrong, you STILL haven't explained why IMM's share price has more than halved over the past year, with almost consistently downward momentum in recent months.

Brushing this uncomfortabke fact aside with the following flimsy excuse doesn't really cut it I'm afraid: "It's important to remember that the current trajectory of ImmuPharma's share price doesn't always reflect its true value or potential, especially considering the volatility often seen in the AIM market. Short-term market dynamics and speculative trading can heavily influence stock prices, sometimes obscuring the company's long-term outlook."

The same argument could easily be applied to many a company that subsequently went bust.

I know you go on to highlight "key partnerships with Avion and Simbec-Orion, alongside efforts to reduce operational costs and secure funding". Which is all well & good.

But my question remains. If everything's really so fine & dandy, how come there's almost CONSTANT downward pressure?

THAT RNS IN FULL:

Clifford M. Gross Ph.D., Executive Chairman of Tekcapital plc commented:

"We're pleased to consummate this funding round which will enable me to continue paying myself a huge - yet fully deserved - salary & bonus, as well as forming a Generative AI portfolio company, guaranteeing further regular dilutive funding rounds for the foreseeable. PS: Sorry about my repeated special dividend promises - would love to chuck long-suffering shareholders a crust, but unfortunately the cupboard's bare right now."

IP3LY - I agree with almost all of your post (other than the 80% loss bit. An 8p drop on 18p is a "mere" 44% loss!)

Only yesterday I wrote:

"There's a lack of clarity about how investors are ever going to reap the full rewards, should any of Tek's holdings really take off. A steady stream of positive revenue news from SALT over the 12 month lock in period might help to an extent. But not if investors fear most of these gains could simply be pumped into Tek's next venture. As for Tek looking to muscle in on AI, well good luck with that, but I think you're already a bit late to the party/ hype."

So here we are - just a day later - with most of those illusory Microsalt paper gains flushed down the loo to fund an "exciting" new AI venture. Which, as you say, is likely to be hugely capital-intensive (i.e. highly dilutive to existing Tek shareholders) & way too late to market to reap any significant reward.

Tek continues to be totally uninvestable at the moment (to all but the most masochistic who get a thrill from losing money).

Hardboy - you're welcome! Not sure whether you're anticipating a big move up or down?

Personally, I'd only be expecting a big move if there's further bad news (i.e. an extension of retail softness into January & February). They said January had got off to a strong start, so this seems a little unlikely. But December's downturn also came out of the blue (to them), so you never know.

Assuming everything's panning out as highlighted in 23rd January's RNS, I suspect any SP reaction would be fairly muted. But H&T's certainly been harder to call since November, so anything's possible.....

Alexbottlier - you may be right. But how do you explain the current (relentlessly downward) share price trajectory in that case?

Cm22 - yeah, but there's one big difference.

Tek is really little more than a shell holding company. Unlike early stage growth companies which create their own sales - and eventually huge profits for the most successful - Tek has no real intrinsic value beyond that of its holdings.

So if investors can't see a clear route & a rough timescale for some of that value to be crystallised & distributed back to them, what exactly's going to persuade them a) to buy in the first place & b) to hold thereafter?

You may not be impressed with the argument. But the fact is, Tek has consistently traded at a huge discount to NAV. IMHO, this has nothing to do with "narratives" and "vibes". I think you'll find the average investor is a bit more sophisticated than that - particularly when it comes to institutional holders. You yourself suggested two of Tek's four IPOs have gone awry. Which isn't entirely true. What's gone awry is their share price in the months POST-IPO. Which is why I've consistently said Tek should realise some value on IPO day. Not months after (or worse still not at all, as appears to be their current strategy).

Badsterman - I think you're pretty much spot on with that summary.

There's certainly still potential in Tek. But there's also high risk. And a lack of clarity about how investors are ever going to reap the full rewards, should any of Tek's holdings really take off.

Reward isn't guaranteed from any trickle down effect you might expect a higher NAV to produce. Microsalt's IPO amply demonstrates that - with Tek's widening NAV discount cancelling out much of the increase in SALT's rising SP. A steady stream of positive revenue news from SALT over the 12 month lock in period might help to an extent. But not if investors fear most of these gains could simply be pumped into Tek's next venture. As for Tek looking to muscle in on AI, well good luck with that, but I think you're already a bit late to the party/ hype.

Stuartrm - it's true there are countless potential threats to stability & security right now. Which is why many markets (US excluded) seem fairly moribund ATM.

However, there's also a possibility some/none of these nightmare scenarios fully (or even partially) transpire. I suspect Trump will get back in. But I also suspect this would have less impact than some fear. Whilst he may feel even more emboldened by a second term, his last Presidency didn't spell disaster for global markets. Far from it. And indeed, given his "Make America Great Again / America First" mantra, he might give US firms a major boost (where SMT is heavily skewed with over 36%).

Of course, I'm not suggesting for a second any US trade war with China would be in the least bit desirable or smart. But there's already strong momentum (not just from America) to pivot away from Chinese supply dependency. Trump would probably accelerate this trend, but I suspect it would still be fairly gradual & sector specific. Even he might just about be able to grasp that an all-out trade war with your country's biggest supplier might not end well.

On the other hand, we are talking Trump here ......!

Hardboy - I'd be wary about engaging with TopCatz if I were you.

I can only guess from your reply roughly what he posted, as I have him on filter. But he & I have never seen eye to eye on another share, where he predicted great things, whilst the share price of the company in question (TEK) continued to plummet. And so far, it's regained only a small fraction of the losses compared to the price level he kept tipping it at.

Since then, he's tracked me down on various other boards, posting similar nonsense, which is why I eventually decided to filter him.

Given your reply, he seems to be suggesting a Labour government would do for H&T's prospects. If so, I'd simply respond with the following:

a) an election is probably still the best part of a year away

b) Assuming Labour gets in, don't you think they might have slightly bigger fish to fry in their first term, rather than going after pawnbrokers? Quite apart from anything else, they'd risk being accused of attacking a regulated industry that's serving a recognised consumer need & is generally highly regarded by the very people using its services (check out H&T's Trustpilot reviews). Such actions could easily lead to them being accused of inadvertently encouraging the re-emergence of more unregulated loan sharks.

Anyhow, up to you, but I personally wouldn't keep engaging with TopCatz. No doubt he'll respond to this post too, despite knowing I no longer read any of his comments (even though he seems to think I still waste time on them).

I'm not a holder here, but have been watching Ensi since it was recently highlighted elsewhere.

This placing looks a bit underhand & concerning to me. It hasn't raised that much capital given the short term cashflow pressures highlighted yesterday. It has cost approx. 10% (raising £1m, yet costing c. £1.115m pre-expenses).

Most importantly, the dilution is at a share price of 50p, which largely fails to reflect yesterday's stong re-rerating following the company's trading update. Clearly, the factoring arrangement is still some way off being agreed and wouldn't be sufficient anyway to fully plug the gap.. Otherwise, why not just wait for that, rather than dilute, offering mates' rates to the least-deserving City brigade?

Hardboy - I wouldn't pay too much attention to Gary Greenwood (or any other analyst come to that).

In Feb 2023, he was predicting for FY 2023: "£32.6m profits, 57.9p earnings and a 23.0p per share dividend".

Now it's "£26.6m, with earnings of 48.4p and a dividend of 17.0p per share".

Most nomads & house brokers simply blow with the wind & are no better at foreseeing bumps along the road than you or I.

In fact they're probably worse, because as paid advisers they're prone to positive bias. And when events change, they just change their mind.

You're far better off going with your own research & gut instinct IMHO. And my instinct - fast-forwarding 12 months - is that today's price level will look like a pretty decent time to have bought in/added. I base that largely on fundamentals as well as the duration & scale of past H&T share price corrections.

Hawker - I hope you're right to feel bullish, but don't really think you can read anything into their latest update.

To me, it's the usual vague jam tomorrow optimism we've been fed for years.

I'm not saying the mood music won't improve, as I think it probably will. But I doubt there'll be a significant uplift between now & May. More like the back end of 2024 at the earliest IMHO.

5RINGS - "Tim will get us across the finishing line". Now that DID make me laugh.

Thanks hardboy

Good luck to you too. And indeed to all H&T holders.

Stuartrm - PCT has certainly had a far better run than SMT recently.

However yesterday’s leaders can prove to be tomorrow’s laggards & vice versa. Investors disenchanted with SMT’s performance might possibly be better off diversifying altogether, choosing a fund with totally different geographic & sector emphasis to spread risk?

The current storm clouds here remind me of the period when H&T was under FCA investigation for its HCSTC loans. All was doom & gloom then, with the share price feeling like it was on a permanent downtrend.

I took the view/gamble that any fine (& reputational damage) was likely to be fairly insignificant & short-lived. So I added several times at prices between £3 & just under £2, as the share price continued to nosedive. Not only have I benefitted from the dividends since, I've also made a half-decent return on capital - even allowing for recent corrections.

I'll be doing the same again this time if March's Preliminary Results cause any further significant correction (unless there are any further curved balls of course).

So - reasons to be cheerful?

Well, it's perhaps worth reminding ourselves that H&T:

1) Expects to report record profits in 2023

2) Trades on an increasingly undemanding P/E (currently around 9, dropping to around 6, assuming annual PBT of £27m-£30m)

3) Pays a decent yield with a progressive dividend policy

Change in sector sentiment is very much at play here currently, with Ramsdens also suffering a significant share price drop in recent months. I suspect both will prove fairly short-lived. P/E ratios that low for consistently profitable companies paying a decent yield rarely last.