Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

IMHO, this article gives a fairly balanced account of where we're at. And how a more benign economic backdrop in 2024 might shake things up (assuming it comes).

Mind, the author does own shares in SMT. So he's not exactly neutral.....

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/what-should-investors-do-with-scottish-mortgage

I don't hold SDRY shares. But I do wear their clothes, as I like their style & quality (less so the price).

TBH, I'm surprised there was any share price bounce here today. The RNS about press speculation simply confirms it's correct and that they ARE - as we already knew - in talks with advisers.

Friday's update is truly dire. For any retailer - particularly in the run up to Christmas's key trading period - a 23.5% fall in sales is fairly calamitous. And whilst the update only covered to end October, things sound like they haven't improved through to January.

Blaming the weather is just desperate. Next & M&S had exactly the same weather - and look at their results.

Sure, SDRY is right to be cutting costs - & stores - dramatically. Question is why it's taken them all this time to realise.

Trouble is, costs can't be halved overnight. And whilst a £40m saving a year might sound a lot, it's really not enough in Superdry's case. Plus, there's only so much IP they can sell off. And they can obviously only do this once.

Maybe Superdry will survive. I certainly hope so. Not least for all its employees & suppliers (though most of the latter are probably Chinese, so I'm less bothered about them). But assuming it does, it'll likely be a shadow of its former self. More a lean machine with genuine fashion & brand innovation. Problem currently is that its core market has largely deserted them. At which point, continuing to slap prominent Superdry branding onto most of your garments becomes an abject lesson in self harm.

D.monies - thanks. You pretty much answered Seamanp911's question for me!

No - I haven't sold my stake as I'm still hoping to claw back some of my losses. Being realistic though, I can't see breakeven ever happening in my case. Reduced loss at best.

I suspect sentiment towards the type of holdings Tek owns may improve in the year ahead, as inflation plummets and interest rates slowly but surely react. However, as I've said multiple times now, I think Tek's strategy of holding long term, rather than part-selling out around IPO stage is DEEPLY flawed. And Tek's share price suggests I'm right. Never mind the fact it seriously jeopardises our chance of EVER receiving those much vaunted (but never issued) special dividends. Which was the main reason I invested here in the first place.

Hookumhall - It's an inexact science. Transactions are logged as buys or sells, based on whether they're priced north or south of the midpoint. Also, you do realise the London Stock Exchange only logs genuine transactions as opposed to fantasy ones?

Lordmakealot - as I've said before, unless anyone intends selling their Tek holding the day Microsalt IPOs, it's largely irrelevant what Tek's share price does on the day.

Sure, it may climb a bit initially. Then when Microsalt's SP drifts/crashes back to earth - as both Lucy & Bell did - Tek will be left in much the same position as before, ruing the day it hung onto its full stake. This will be followed by further dilutive fundraises as Microsalt raises cash for future orders. Who knows, Microsalt may end up doing OK (though I doubt it, given Tate & Lyle's lack of success with a near identical product). Either way, Tek will be left holding an ever-decreasing slice of the pie.

History tells us that Microsalt's IPO market cap is TOTALLY irrelevant.

Unless TEK capitalises on the IPO by reducing its stake promply whilst the going's good, it's likely to see the value of its holding plummet. As both Lucy & Bell did.

Seamanp911 - you say "if Microsalt is indeed valued at 30mil remember our own Mkt cap is currently only 12mil". Two things wrong with that. Firstly, Microsalt ISN'T valued at 30mil, but 18.5mil. And probably only very briefly at that. Secondly, if this was such a game-changer for TEK, how come its share price has FALLEN this morning, currently standing at a miserable 6.5p BID, 7p ASK?

Moneybags1 - you mean IMM & Tim McCarthy's track records WOULDN'T influence your investment decision?

I really think you should do a bit more research in that case. As Adastra points out - & by the way, I'd totally ignore him in your decision-making - previous trials have consistently failed to achieve statistical significance. The forthconing trial has been significantly adapted as a result, so it does stand a better chance. But still only a chance. IMM has also ignored some of the FDA's advice in terms of their latest trial, which is rarely a sensible move. And, as you say, IMM's finances look incredibly shaky.

There's a reason why the share price is where it is. Despite the potential for huge gains in a few years' time, there's also the very real risk that IMM will fail and that its share price will sink much further between now & then. Even if it eventually comes good.

Adastra - by far your most informative post yet.

Londoner7 - fair enough & good luck wherever you choose to invest instead.

Not sure why you were puzzled about the company’s comments re pledge book pricing structure though. “Improving yield” was just a posh way of saying they were putting their prices up.

Adastra - give it a rest.

You're starting to get REALLY boring now.

Why would ANYONE pay the slightest bit of attention to TW?

Talk about the blind leading the blind.

EarlofAIm - you OK?

Your posts remind me of a fly, buzzing ever more manically around a UV light before being zapped.

Martinu - possibly. I'd certainly classify TW as noise that's best cancelled.

EarlofAIm - not sure that twit on Twitter has their facts straight. Fully funded until trial completion? Hmmm.

Lambo222 - I'm not sure you realise how daft your posts appear sometimes.

At 7.21am today you say: "Huge volume day yesterday as the seller left the building, any volume today and this shoots straight back over 2p imo won’t take much".

However, when a fellow poster then counters with "not sure the seller has left quite yet", your tone takes a screeching u-turn at 8.59am today, with:

"Agree, let’s hope it’s not a TR1 holder as some of these trades are very big and selling at any price."

I wouldn't read too much into it.

Until something positive is RNSd, short term share price volatility is just noise.

I've just bought the whole company for 5p & have decided to take it private. Sorry guys.

Don't know what TopCatz posted as he's filtered. But judging by others' replies, he's suggesting MicroSalt's float is imminent.

That may be the case.

But unless/until TEK issues an RNS to confirm it, I'd take anything TC says with a very large pinch of salt. If it ain't officially announced, it ain't known. Period.

Adastra - you really are a totally transparent ramper.

Yes, we get it. IMM is a great investment opportunity. Except that the recent share price trajectory suggests otherwise.

Hardboy - averaging down (or in your case, increasing the stake at nil cost) never did anyone any harm! Best of luck anyhow.

I actually think H&T could float back up to the £4 level faster than you might think. Assuming March’s prelims contain a reasonably upbeat outlook statement, with no further deterioration in retail trading. And also that no other fanatics come along, thinking it would be a jolly good idea to wage war on their neighbours. Peace, man, peace!