Member Info for lootgaloot

“Can they do that with the London ruling against the asset ? If they could they would have done it by now. I feel they have to do a deal as courts are deadlocked. Maybe I am wrong ?”

Honestly guys it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Let’s try reversing the story and perhaps you can see how ridiculous your stance is.

Suppose an English guy owns a gold mine in Lancashire. Suddenly a company based in Mozambique rocks up with a High Court ruling from a judge in Maputo saying they own 50% of the mine in Lancashire.

The English guy points out that the mine in Lancashire is wholly registered in his name with the UK authority but nevertheless they go to a commercial court in London which rules that the mine does indeed belong to the English guy.

Then, bloody cheek, the Mozambique company only goes to the Supreme Court in London. You know, the one situated on Parliament Square, Westminster, directly opposite the Houses of Parliament. Yeah, that one, the highest court in the land.

Last time I checked the UK was a sovereign nation and the Supreme Court has ultimate jurisdiction on all things within her majesties realm; which includs gold mines in Lancashire. Anyway, guess what, the Supreme Court in London also tells the bunch of chancers from Mozambique to go whistle.

Now imagine that some investor in Mozambique then said to you the question remains unsettled because “the courts are deadlocked”. You would, quite rightly, p1$$ yourself laughing. Yeah, that’s a real deadlock between some court in Maputo and our own Supreme Court on a matter relating to ownership of an asset within the United Kingdom.

Now of course I’ve reversed the situation for effect and I’ve complete ignored the injustice and corruption existing at the very highest level in Mozambique. However, the cold hard facts remain. Every country, no matter how corrupt, has the right to exercise authority within their jurisdiction.

The ruling will be a bitter pill to swallow and many of you will feel that you have lost so much already that you may as well stick it out to the inevitable end. Fine, that’s your decision, but at least have the courage to face the facts as they are.

I suspect that some people are going to really like the previous post and some people are going to really hate it.

Well I'd say that was an excellent trading update today and pretty much in line with my belief that the impact of Covid-19 in G4S has been greatly overestimated by the market.

Great to hear that since the disposal of Cash Solutions, the higher margin Secure Solutions part of the business now accounts for 90% of revenue. This bodes well for the long term strategy to turn G4S into a consultancy and technology led security provider. The work now must be on trimming the fat and focusing on this future direction.

Regarding the impact of Covid-19...

"Group revenues were 1% lower than the first five months of 2019, with revenues in Secure Solutions slightly ahead and a 16% decline in Cash Solutions. Group revenues in April and May were 7% lower."

So the impact has been greatest in the old Cash Solutions business (which is not surprising) and even though April and May were difficult, revenues are still only 1% lower than the first five months of 2019. This suggests to me that once we put the whole China flu thing behind us we should emerge as a much leaner and higher revenue business. Obviously a second wave of the virus is always a risk.

No mention of a dividend for next year but I can understand not wishing to commit at this stage but I'd say, barring an unforeseen disaster, we should see a return to dividends.

Long term the strategy to become a technology led group is looking good and I am very satisfied with today's update. A little disappointing the share price didn't react to a greater extent but maybe we'll see another few percent rise tomorrow.

I'm really starting to really appreciate what a great company this is. Up another 6% as I type. Covid-19 was easily shrugged off and there's real momentum since the recent cash raise. Yes, it is expensive; the PE ratio is through the roof. But I actually see this as a real endorsement of quality that the company can sustain share price growth even at this level.

I keep adjusting my 20% stop loss upwards. I guess it will be triggered one day but for now the trend is my friend.

RNS looks like JP Morgan have exited.

The moderator has finally figured out that if one person keeps asking for posts to be deleted the problem is more likely to be with that one poster rather than the many others that he accuses of being trolls.

So Herald Investments are the only institution with a declared interest? Hardly a ringing endorsement is it? I had hoped some decent institutional interest would a_) Give credence to the business model and, perhaps more importantly, b_) provide some discipline and oversight with regard to JD inept communication.

Neither. They have been awarded shares under the 'Company's Long Term Incentive Plan'. Nice work if you can get it. Clearly the directors feel their performance deserves to be rewarded.

No idea but mixed feelings about the drop as it may present a good buying opportunity.

The BLM riots don't help; a perfect breeding ground for as second peak of Covid-19. However I'm not sure Covid-19 was quite the global pandemic we were promised. As many commentators have already said; the economic/social consequences of the lockdown will cause far more damage to peoples lives than the flu.

Strange share; seems to burst into life every now and again for no reason.

Thanks for your replies TruroTrader and Surprised,

My investment style is to ‘buy and hold’ for several years. So I’m not looking for a quick 10% before moving on. However, I also employ stop losses and because of this I am cautious of buying shares that may have a lot of ‘hope factor’ already in the price. If these deals don’t materialise by August I could easily see my stop loss triggered.

Yes, it’s a case of risk/reward and my cautious approach has already cost me a lower entry price on this share but I am comfortable with missing out on opportunities because past experience has taught me that you can nearly always buy at a lower price at some point in the future; not always, but often enough so that I avoid feeling hurried into buying ‘the next big thing’.

I agree that the fishery protection and security issues continue to be relevant regardless of Covid-19. But these drivers have been relevant for a couple of years now and still the company has difficulty getting over the line.

I agree with everything that has been said about the cash position and the fixed cost base. In fact, this is what is attracting me to the company. I just don’t feel I can pull the trigger just yet and, no offence (I appreciate your advice), but I haven’t heard anything from either of you which assures me that this time it’s different regarding potential further delays.

For now I shall keep this on my watch list and look again later in the year. By then I will probably have missed the boat (sorry for the pun) but for the reasons given above, I’m OK with that.

I've been reading back through old posts and doing some additional online research into this company. It's a good story and ST comes across very well in podcasts. However, there seems to be a bit of a history of over promising and under delivering.

Looking back on this board you guys have been talking about the Philippines project for about two years. In one webcast ST admitted himself that it's been a learning experience in terms of how long these government approvals take. Now, the latest delay is Covid-19.

Don't get me wrong; I believe the company are genuinely communicating what they believe to be realistic timelines. I also believe some/all of these projects will materialise at some point. However, buying in now would be paying a full price for the expectation of these deals coming through over the next couple of months.

A genuine question; what do other posters see as a likely percent chance of one or more of these deals materialising in June/July taking into account a track record of previous delays?

Yeah, because facts and figures really matter when you're not even the legal owner of the licence.

Totally agree with Snaffle. Not much ALM can do to influence the value of the underlying assets. Nor can they 'create'news. Today's RNS is pretty much as expected. Thanks also to dnwill for crunching the numbers.

@bunsenburner, the reason he/she won't answer the question is because a very inconvenient fact has emerged last week that PFP are not the legal owners of the mining licence. This was the ruling of the Mozambique Supreme Court, the highest court with jurisdiction over ownership. PFP could appeal but given this judgement was over 5 years in the making, an appeal is simply not a realistic option.

In short PFP have lost any leverage in future negotiations. General Veloso is free to cnduct his negotiations with the unknown Chinese entity as both these parties own 100% of the licence.

Currently PFP are maintaining the charade that nothing has changed; what else can they do? Senior investors in PFP are too balls deep to sell out and General Veloso simply has no urgency to tell PFP to do one. So what we have now is the quite before the storm. Unfortunately DShox isn't bright enough to realise this and get out while he can.

At some stage Veloso will meet the Chinese face to face and there will be an empty chair at the negotiation table where PFP would once have sat. Once that meeting occurs the reality of the situation will be clear. Until then, expect to see a long slow decline in share price.

@nomlunga, I also expect a placing soon. In fact, immediately prior to the RNS dated 17 March the company were about to close the book on further financing; so this is not really news.

It was unfortunate timing, but Covid-19 put a stop to that hence the RNS dated 17 March. The company were therefore obliged to provide a RNS with a factual account of the current financing but were unable to expand on remedial action.

However, the following day (18 March) John Shaw appeared on ‘proactive investor’ to state; ‘plan to make it through to August’. Furthermore the company are already authorisation to issue a further 26 million shares (£365,000 at today’s price). These shares a mark to market so to say that any fund raising will be ‘heavily discounted’ is pure conjecture and not in any way supported by facts.

I believe the company will go back to investors for additional funds in 2021 (as was planned prior to Covid-19) but this can be done in an ordered fashion given the existing facility in place.

In fact share price has now recovered to pre Covid-19 levels reflecting the confidence the market has in an ordered fund raise when needed.

Revenue for last year was £1.1 million, that's 59.6% growth over previous year. In fact, revenue has grown year on year for every year for the past five years.

I'm not one for shouting down people with an opposite opinion but let's be fair; this is a well run business with consistent growth. OK you can argue that growth was slow up until year end 2018 but 2019 was a fantastic year for revenue and this year may be even better.

I've said it before, I'll say it again, we are seeing transformational growth right before our eyes. If you're not happy with the performance of this company over the past year then I wish I had the other shares in your portfolio. Now it's true that we still have to make a profit. Well all the indicators are that this is the year we break even.

As I say, transformational change right before our eyes. Now we need the share price to reflect that change.

I have to agree with you New_Dawn. Unfortunately delisting from AIM is inevitable given the past comments from the company. However, I'm not sure when that will happen. Could be several years away. So I am happy to stick with ITX until then as there is plenty of time for significant share price rise between now and whenever.

It would be great news if PFP were the legal owners of the licence. Unfortunately the Supreme Court has ruled otherwise. Big fall in share price starting Monday as reality sinks in.

Clearly in denial. Oh well, it's your money.