Member Info for lootgaloot

Yes, I agree they have increased their share of FW but my point is that it is false to say 0.8% = $6.85 million. The calculation is more complicated than that.

@ Pablo_escobar “therefore Fed valued 1.2 billion $”
I wish that was true but sadly not; perhaps one day.
ALM did not pay $6.85 million for 0.61%...

From RNS: “Allied Minds committed $6.85 million to the round. The Group invested alongside existing investor Pennant Investors who committed the same amount.”

It will depend how muck of FW is owned by ALM and Pennant already. If that share is already well over 90% (which I suspect it is but cannot find confirmation) then the percent increase in ownership will appear relatively small but that’s only because the two investors own practically all of the company already.

I’m not sue I’ve explained it well but in short, you would need to know the full breakdown in ownership of FW to be able to make a valuation calculation based on the new investment.

buy the rumour, sell the news.

We don't know what the criteria for Government assistance will be but I'd imagine front of the queue will be companies who employ people in UK, who provide essential infrastructure or services to the UK, who are embedded in UK supply chains.

Back of the queue will be companies who have foolishly ignored the need to secure funding even though it should have been easy to estimate future cash needs well in advance.

If they only have enough cash until May then I'm not sure on the relevance of their statement regarding AIM.

Wish I had kept some money on the sidelines. Only 3% of my portfolio was in cash prior to the recent sell off.

The deal between PFP and Pathfinder Mozambique has already been 'agreed in principle'. Read the latest RNS.

The problem now is that the potential buyer is doing due diligence. Not a hope in hell will the potential buyer go ahead in the current economic climate. The Corona virus is a game changer. It takes out the weak and infirm; and that includes companies as well as people.

Nobody will invest at the moment. People need to seriously think before they throw more money into this.

A lot of talk about the General being the obstacle and how it's in the interests of all parties to strike a deal etc.

The previous RNS states that an agreement has been reached 'in principle' between PFP and Pathfinder Mozambique. So if we take the RNS at face value the problem is not with the General. The hold up is because the mystery bidder is still doing due diligence.

I'm not saying I believe everything that the BOD say but the above has been clearly stated in RNS and so should be accepted as a the current state of negotiations.

PFP/Veloso/Align, it matters not one jot now that the Corona virus has overtaken events. I cannot see the potential bidder for the licence going ahead in the current climate.

It showed on my Halifax SIPP this morning.

Fair enough robmythoughts. that sheds a different light on things.

Very worrying in my opinion. Senior members do not generally leave start-ups unless there is some doubt regarding the business. To leave for a competitor is even more worrying.

I just topped up too. We're now trading at almost 50% discount to NAV. It was around 40% discount to NAV before dividend announcement.

Past experience with special dividends tell me we should 'gap up' come 14th Feb as many will re-invest their dividends in ALM. Nothing's ever for sure in the markets but I'd be surprised if we are not back to the high forties by the end of the year and that's to say nothing of the portfolio positions which could be realised at any point. Although I'm not sure my heart can take another special dividend; may be a share buy back next time?

Prior to dividend announcement; sp = 50p and NAV = 83p >>> Discount to NAV = 40%
Today’s close; sp = 41.2p and NAV = 70.4p >>> Discount to NAV = 41.5%

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Google "reclaiming Swiss withholding tax".

I've never had to do it but it sounds a bureaucratic nightmare. Depending on how much you can reclaim, you may decide it's not worth it.

Simon Thompson at Investors Chronicle seems to like these 'special dividend' plays. Usually highly discounted to NAV and with the intention of returning cash to shareholders.

I've followed a few of his tips in the past and I know from personal experience that it's possible to get it wrong. My mistake in the past was seeing the special dividend as 'free money'. But be warned, the return to value on ex dividend day can be a killer.

Perhaps there are people more clever than me who can play these situations but my advice is to remember why you invested in ALM in the first place. If you believe that the company is fundamentally undervalued then play the long game.

I think it's fair to say that a 'special dividend' isn't 'fee money'. It's cash that was held in the company which will be give out to shareholders. So the net effect is that the company will have less cash and is therefore worth less on ex dividend date.

The 'special dividend' is hardly unexpected news and I'm afraid to say that it was largely priced into the 50p share price prior to announcement.

However, I'd expect the share price to continue to rise as we approach 14th Feb and then fall back to a price lower than 50p on ex dividend date. In my experience of other companies paying a special dividend, the share price may then gradually recover to 50p over a period of months. So in the long run you get the benefit of the dividend but it's not as straight forward as some may think.

The reason why investors continue to buy and sell is because market forces still apply with investors trying to second guess how much of the special dividend was already priced into the share and by how much will the share fall after the dividend is paid.

Personally I'm playing the long game with ALM. I'm encouraged to see the BOD are now returning cash to investors and I have confidence that the estimated NAV will be realised over the long term. I am also hopeful that the value of the investments in the portfolio will grow.

Nouryon agreement for both the Chealants and Personal-Care products commenced in Jan/Feb of last year. It seems strange that the deal was stopped for Chealants after 12 months.

Clearly something wasn't working somewhere. I'd suggest the problem was not technical/performance related as the direct customers continue to buy (I assume). Perhaps Nouryon couldn't achieve a margin to justify the business?

It's disappointing because a good distributor can be a very effective route to market.

I think it’s time for the company to declare the identity of this potential buyer. There is no reason why this is being kept secret. If the potential buyer is the same company that PFP wish to buy a new licence from then I see a real conflict of interest here.

How do we know that the potential buyer are not just feigning interest in buying the Moz licence so that PFP can raise the funds necessary to buy another licence from them. This so called potential buyer may just be looking to offload some unwanted licence into the PFP shell and once they do, suddenly they are no longer interested in the Moz licence.
Conveniently, the unknown buyer gets to offload an unwanted licence and PFP BOD get to justify their salaried positions for a few more years.

I’ve always thought the General was the problem with the negotiations but it never made sense because surely it was in everyone’s interest to strike a deal. Now I’m beginning to wonder how genuine is the potential buyer? Surprisingly, in the last RNS we were told that they have still not completed “due diligence”. Ahh, “due diligence” such a wonderful phrase that can mean just about anything and can take as long as you like.

I believe this so called potential buyer was introduced by AFG and wasn’t there some concern on this board when AFG first became involved. I think I’ll have to read up a bit on AFG.

This uncertainty can easily be cleared up by the company revealing the identity of the interested party. If Richard Jennings really wants to prove that he is an “activist shareholder” then he should be pressing for this information. There is no reason to withhold this from the public domain.

@MGXYZ. Lol, remember it well. Sounds like you, me and Ricky Gervais are very familiar with these types.