Member Info for lootgaloot

Good find Echo, I've said it before but my one concern is my inability to value Fed simply because so much is unknown regarding revenue. The article you linked to is another piece added to my understanding; good that the secondary market could be up and running by the end of this year (I was thinking mid 2021) but a little concerning that there appears to be some debate on whether the big operators will participate in the secondary market.

I'm still happy to be invested here. The article gives two examples (sports events and schools) where organisations may wish to lease spectrum short term for a particular time/location. The examples make sense to me and I can think of many other instances. My faith in capitalism leads me to believe that if there is a customer need; then of course the big operators will see an extra source of revenue and will be happy to participate in the secondary market.

It helps to be aware of these hurdles as I will need to continually reassess my investment as we into 2021. This is a new business model after all. Nothing is set in stone but uncertainty can also be opportunity.

I sold out yesterday as I'm expecting a bit of a market wide correction and GFS will not be immune. I'm now 50% cash and judging from today's 5% fall on NASDAQ, I may have got out just in time. Not like me to get my timing right so we'll have to see how things pan out.

I believe BAKK are focused on the 'oven ready' convenience part of the market. Busy 'double income' families who want fresh/chilled but don't have the time for all the prep. This market sector has probably suffered more than most.

C band auction in US in December but we also have the Ofcom 5g auction in UK in January 2021...

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/08/ofcom-uk-aim-next-5g-mobile-spectrum-auction-at-january-2021.html

Once the dust settles on the NASDAQ correction then I predict a decent December/January as we go into 'auction season'.

Also, as we go through 2021 I expect to see 5G technology gain greater prominance in the popular media. I expect to see the first 5G enabled devices on the market and for the average Joe on the street becoming more aware.

At the moment everyone is Covid-19 obsessed. The next big investment theme could be 5G. There are very few companies on the market with the level of exposure to 5G as Allied Minds. I think we are flying under the radar of many investors but I am sure this will not be the case for long.

NASDAQ down almost 5% as I type. The tech bubble in US may be finally busting. Not before time, some of the valuations were just getting silly especially as we enter what's going to be a pretty harsh recession. Bound to have some effect on ALM share price.

Seems like a few of us have a break even of 43p. I may take the opportunity to average down if this returns to low thirties.

The whole market has taken a bit of a hit this afternoon. Ocado down 6%, not sure if that's related. Just checking and most of the supermarkets not too badly hit so I assume Pro4321 is correct and Monday's results will be pretty dire.

The auction is ongoing but looks like revenues are stabilising at around $4.5 bn. I believe this is on the lower end of estimates. I know the auction still has a few weeks to go. Does anyone expect the bidding to increase as we get near the end?

https://auctiondata.fcc.gov/public/projects/auction105

Trades reported in blue or text indicate whether the trade was executed above or below the spread mid-price. While this is generally a good indication of buy/sell, it is not always the case. SGC generally has a narrow spread so be careful in assuming that a trade appearing in blue text is necessarily a buy.

Also, a market maker may have a large sell order to fill behind the scenes so it can make sense to maintain or even lower the share price to encourage lots of buys. This is more likely to be the case in lightly traded, illiquid stocks. Unlikely to be the case here.

I'm not saying either of the above is the reason for your observation. I'm just pointing out some possible reasons. There may be others.

It looks like the 50p floor has become a ceiling. I think the only thing that will get this moving now is a vaccine. Until then there could be opportunities to average down.

Just the Newark site; also, no mention of the site closing although I'm sure there will be some disruption while everyone gets tested....

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/more-70-test-positive-covid-220051400.html

Not exactly great news but to put it in perspective; Bakkavor employ 20,000 people across 45 locations worldwide. The Newark site in Nottinghamshire employ 1,600.

Hi Echo,

To explain; I don’t need to understand the intricate detail of every company I invest in, but I do need to at least follow the business logic to the extent that I can anticipate revenue from future activities. So, like you, I see FW as the golden egg; even though there are many aspects of the business I don’t fully understand.

For Federated Wireless the business model is to manage shared spectrum, not to own spectrum. Once the auction is complete, a secondary market will exist where unused spectrum can be leased between participants. Feds ‘Spectrum Controller’ will track and manage ownership along with all leaser data. I think Giggs linked to an article a while ago in which FW was described as a sort of AirBnB for spectrum. I still have many unanswered questions but at least I can see how FW can generate revenue from such a service.

However, Spin Memory still feels like a bit of a ‘moon shot’. They are described as the leading developer of magnetic RAM (MRAM). If MRAM were to replace ‘power hungry’ SRAM and DRAM then clearly we could be talking about the next Intel or ARM. But MRAM is not the only horse in this race. Other emerging technologies like phase-change memory (PCM) and resistive memory (ReRAM) exist. There must be challenges with each of these memory technologies otherwise we would be using them now. The advent of AI and IoT creates a more immediate opportunity for one of these memory technologies to become commercial; but which one (if any)?

For me, FW is ideally placed in a soon to be existing market whereas Spin offer a greater prize but with a lot less certainty. This is the advantage of investing via a vehicle like ALM. We have a pipeline of companies at different stages of maturity. Two to three years from now FW may be ready for IPO by which time Spin may have solved many of the technical challenges that must currently still exist.

Future collaborations and partnerships between Spin Technologies and other participants in the market should help us gauge the acceptance of MRAM but for now, I’m happy to let that story evolve in the background. My interest is solely on FW as I believe this alone will drive the ALM share price for the foreseeable future.

I think Spin are at least 5 years from being where FW are today hence the difference in news flow. FW simply have more market relevant news to tell. Spin may or may not get there but, at the moment, the news from Spin seems mostly technology/engineering focused; not the stuff of RNSs which are meant to inform on market relevant news.

This may be an unpopular opinion but personally Spin is the type of company I would never invest in. The fact that it is part of the ALM stable is fine by me but it's not why I'm invested. I bought in to ALM because I was looking for a play on 5G (which I believe will be transformation). FW are the purest play on 5G I could find in the market and the NAV estimates of ALM further convinced me to invest.

So why would I never invest in Spin? I simply don't understand what they are doing. I'd argue that only a very select few industry specialists are in a position to know if Spin have a chance of making it. If they do, there's no doubt that they would dwarf FW in value. But the whole thing seems a bit academic. As Dorsett said; we may know a bit more on the 20th but I'm not particularly interested. It's not why I'm here.

The share price is over 40% higher in the last 30 days driven by a series of encouraging news releases.

Since the beginning of the year we are down 15% but 'FTSE-100' and 'FTSE All Share' are both down around 20%. In that time we have had a special dividend pay out almost 30% of the current share value.

I can understand someone who bought 5 or even 2 years ago being frustrated; the price was much higher then. But personally (just like you NuckyT) I'm around break even at my entry price and in profit when you include the special dividend.

Given all of the above I am more than happy with my investment in ALM. I repeat 40% share price increase in the past 30 days.

If I have an issue with ALM its that I cannot really value FW because I lack the understanding of their business to calculate future revenue stream. But that's hardly the fault of the company. I rely on commentators like Edison to assign a value to the company and I am happy to stick it out and be patient.

Not sure what happened today but I'll take a 12% rise just before close of business. Could there be news tomorrow morning?

Things seem to be really happening atm. As the CEO said on today's RNS; "2020 is proving to be a breakthrough year for the business."

I’ve noticed a change in the public mood since the use of face masks became widespread. Regardless of the effectiveness of the masks, it feels as if ordinary people are becoming more confident going about their day to day lives. You could say the face mask is acting as a kind of security blanket.

“I’m safe now that I’m wearing the mask. I can see the other people on the bus wearing masks so we’re all in it together.”

I say this as someone who has never taken this flu seriously from day one. I’m not going to live my life in fear of a flu with a 0.001% death rate. However, unlike the libertarians in the US, I will wear a mask in public because it is polite and considerate of others. It feels like the ‘British’ thing to do.

Interesting indeed; especially this...

"After the CBRS auction, the FCC is scheduled to begin the C-band auction in December, which is scheduled to release far more spectrum – and generate far higher bids – than the CBRS auction."

Does this mean we're just having the starter and the main meal is still to come in December?

Exactly what Bucklerfern said. PFP own 0%. The UK ruling dates from over 6 years ago. However, as the original contract failed to specify 'English Law' the Supreme Court in Moz has final jurisdiction. Supreme court in Moz recently ruled PFP are NOT the owners of the licence. There is no higher court in the land. However PFP can appeal. The process dragged on for about 5 years for the initial ruling so an appeal is unlikely to be an option for PFP given time/money.

Do yourself a favour and avoid.

Don't leave us Nucky the fun is just beginning.

I wonder if our 200K buyer will return tomorrow? 2 x 200K buys in the afternoon followed by another 200K buy after hours. I promise it's not me.