Member Info for lootgaloot

It trades on a very high PE ratio and while revenue is still growing, margins are lower. In other words, this is still a great business transitioning to maturity. I expect PE ratio will fall in coming years but underlying earnings should support share price.

Trading update as good as can be expected in these challenging times. It will be well into next year before we get back to business as usual. No nasty surprises, steady as she goes with plenty of cash and no debt.

MCPrice, Lots of stocks discussed in that video but with the exception of BWNG nothing really grabbed my fancy. Couldn't believe the love for RCH; it sounds a complete basket case and that guy was talking like its the next facebook.

MCRO not really my thing either. One of those stocks that require a lot of research.

I believe there is an opportunity post Covid to pick up a lot of 'household names' cheaply. Middle-of-the-road cash generating companies.

FOUR, AVAP, BAKK, HSW, MGP, MAB, NEX, RNK, SGC.

All solid companies trading well below pre Covid levels and on my list for recovery. I'm interested in hearing of any others?

Early next year I want to build a diverse holding of what, only a year ago, would have looked like a conservative, safe, dividend paying portfolio. But at a fraction of the cost.

I'm really interested in hearing other recovery stocks. My plan is to split my SIPP into about thirty of these recovery stocks.

I think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to supercharge your SIPP and retire several years earlier than planned. A 300% upside while still following the rules of diversification in business' with long trading histories and dividends.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/why-think-ftse-100-stock-114904637.html

Article is about Antofagasta but still interesting to see copper beginning to grab the headlines.

Carvegyber, all good points and you put forward a strong case for inflation. I agree that we are running out of road for many of the factors which, in the past, have kept a lid on price rises. Trump or Biden; I expect we will have to redefine our relationship with China and globalisation in general.

Your 4% inflation prediction in 4 years seems very ‘goldilocks’ and it would certainly help the western world as it would slowly eroded away our current debt. I am more pessimistic. I expect public debt to rocket in the next few years and how we deal with that debt is what concerns me.

Eventually debt has to be repaid. Just as fiat currency is created out of thin air when someone borrows money, the flip side is that it is destroyed when debt is repaid. Sooner or later the debt must be repaid and when it does the velocity of money is greatly reduced.

Inflation or deflation; we will have to see. It’s always good to consider both sides of the debate and to prepare oneself for one outcome and exclude the possibility of the other is a risky strategy.

Holding shares in gold/silver miners is a good decision in times of high inflation but I believe it may be the least bad option in times of deflation. Deflation would be terrible news for the stock market and a complete nightmare for those holding a large amount of debt.

Low inflation is a fact in just about every consumable in our day-to-day lives and this has been the case since the mid-nineties. There may be less discounting in shops since the Covid hysteria but it remains to be seen if this will cause anything other than a blip to the inflation figures. High oil prices may also cause inflation but then again, they may not; the oil price was consistently around $100 per drum in the early 2010’s yet inflation remained stubbornly low.

You may be right that we are about to enter a period of high inflation but it is far from the certainty that you have proposed. Central banks in both Japan and the Euro area would be happy if this were the case but most central bankers today consider the threat of deflation, and not inflation, to be the greater concern. I certainly would not encourage anyone to take on high levels of debt at this time in the hope that it will be inflated away in the coming years.

Your view on the relationship between money printing and inflation is overly simplistic. Most economists attribute inflation to ‘money velocity’ with ‘money growth’ being significant only in that it sometimes (not always) feeds into ‘money velocity’.
Trillions of $ in fiat currency have been printed since the 2008 financial crisis but this money has gone straight to bankers who have allocated this cash into the non-productive parts of the economy such as real estate and asset prices. Relatively little of this cash has found its way to industrialists, entrepreneurs and into the hands of working people. As a result, ‘money velocity’ has been lower than hoped and wage inflation has been mostly non-existent.

As an alternative view, I propose that the post-Covid economy will be characterised by deflation rather than inflation. Once the mania subsides, then comes the realisation that we have burdened our economy with mountains of debt. Consumers will rein in their spending, industry will cut back on investing in innovation and the ‘velocity of money’ will fall further as everyone seek to service their debt. As prices begin to fall (for both assets and consumables) people will delay spending further in the expectation of even lower prices in the future and thus a vicious cycle in which deflation feeds on itself is established. This may not necessarily be a bad thing.

Japan has been trying to stoke inflation for thirty years and it still hasn't happened. The Fed is not doing anything that the Japanese haven't tried already.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7nvORAcnJs&feature=youtu.be

Starts at 1:40

Very sensible Nucky. A final salary pension started at 18 y.o. is very rare in this age. It would probably cost you £1m if you had to buy an annuity with the same inflation proof income for the rest of your life. You can count yourself very fortunate.

Regarding investing in shares; I think it's something you have to enjoy. If it causes you worry and stress then definitely knock it on the head. As for me, I enjoy it. I spent many years losing money but I like to think I've got the hang of it now. I aim to retire at 52 (three years from now) and I'm pretty sure I can make a steady income from investing in shares as well as my pension when that kicks in.

ALM is a good share to just leave and forget about. Check every so often but don't stress about the short term movements. It may take a few years but I'm sure this will come good. As for tomorrows results, I expect some news but nothing major.

Well I’ve answered that question Nucky because, as of this morning, I’ve completely sold out of ALM. My average buy price was 43p and average sell 40p. So a slight loss but the special dividend earlier in the year means I made a modest profit overall.

I still believe Fed Wireless has potential once 5G is implemented and I will keep ALM on my watch list because it is one of the few companies with exposure to 5G while still being small enough for success to have a material impact on share price.

So why did I sell? Nothing to do with ALM or the companies in the portfolio, it is simply because the roll out of 5G has not been as anticipated when I first bought last year. I bought thinking 2020 was the year, now I believe it could be as late as 2022. Yesterday’s underwhelming launch of the new iPhone has just confirmed that belief.

We all know the reasons; Covid, Huawei as well as infrastructure issues. All of which can and will be overcome but it could take several years for 5G to hit the critical mass required for Fed to start generating revenues. Actually, I now believe Bridgecomm are more likely to achieve revenues first.

Which brings me to my second point; by now we should have some idea on revenue expectations for Fed. There has been very little detail and this makes me nervous. Don’t get me wrong; I realise both Fed and Bridgecomm are pioneering new business models and a certain degree of uncertainty is to be expected. However, I strongly suspect both companies simply do not know themselves.

The ‘Field of Dreams; build it and they will come’ business model is popular in US and it has worked splendidly for Amazon, Facebook etc. However, we are entering a new reality in the next few years. With a recession and a falling NASDAQ I’d like to see a bit more clarity regarding the future.

Looking at the short to medium term, I’ll watch the C Band auctions with interest to gauge ongoing interest in 5G. I shall also turn my attention to some of the more traditional business with proven revenue streams which are now at incredibly low valuations due to Covid (SGC, BAKK, RNK, FOUR).

I haven’t written off ALM, I just think I invested too early and for now there are other opportunities with a better risk/reward profile.

You could always try your luck with my sister. Big house in a very nice area. You may as well move in because as a taxpayer you've been paying her rent for the last 20 years while she sits on her fat ar$e raking in £30K p.a. (Net; because tax is for mugs)*. I will pmsl when her youngest hits 18 and all the bennies dry up. She'll probably try to bang out another one if she can.

* I'm guessing £30K net; wouldn't surprise me if it was a lot more. Added together she's probably managed about 12 months in paid employment in her entire adult life.

Could be an interesting week coming up. On Tuesday Apple will launch the iPhone 12 and on Thursday we have H1 Results.

Let’s face it, 5G has been a bit of a damp squib so far. It’s understandable as all eyes are on Covid atm. We also had the Huawei issues which, according to one article I read, has put back 5G infrastructure by 2 years.

If there’s one company that can put the oomph into 5G it’s Apple. As yet, I don’t think the consumer has been given enough reason to get excited about 5G and it’s unlikely Apple will have the ‘killer app’ that will change that perception. Nonetheless it will still be interesting to see how Apple can spin the 5G story.

Yes. Click on 'SGC Share News' icon on top of this page. Click on the latest news item for 'next 7 days' news; see Friday.

If d2p technology is based on silver technology then I can see why they are reluctant to reveal this as there is nothing to stop a competitor doing exactly the same. The biocidal properties of silver are well known and have been used in antimicrobial applications for many years. There is no intellectual property as such. However, while understandable, it is nevertheless disingenuous of the company to imply that this is a novel technology and unique to Symphony.

What we see in these auctions are PALs being assigned to the Telcos. FW are not directly involved but in the sense that this is relevant to FW; I’d say it provides the framework in which FW’s ‘Spectrum Controller’ can operate.

Once the auctions are complete, a secondary market should exist where unused spectrum can be leased between participants. FW’s ‘Spectrum Controller’ will track and manage ownership along with all leaser data. One journalist described FW’s ‘Spectrum Controller’ as a sort of AirBnB for spectrum. As I understand it, FW are the only SAS administrator providing this service.

Looking back over old posts; Echo1 found the following article which I think is well worth a read…

https://www.fiercewireless.com/regulatory/secondary-market-for-spectrum-primed-for-big-change-thanks-to-cbrs

My take away from the article is that there appears to be some debate on whether the big operators will participate in the secondary market for spectrum. So this is the big risk for us investors; it really comes down to whether you believe the secondary market in shared spectrum will take off.

Nevertheless, the article says that the SAS administrators will meet the FCC in September to discuss the arrangements for the functioning of the secondary market (I’m not aware if this has already occurred).

Again, I’d encourage you to read the article; it gives two good examples (sports events and schools) where organisations may wish to lease spectrum short term for a particular time/location.

But you have raised an interesting issue. Everything that I have seen regarding shared spectrum and how it relates to FW’s ‘Spectrum Controller’ has mentioned CBRS but with no mention of C Band. Until now I’ve just assumed the principle applied to both. Why wouldn’t it? But now that you mention that you have been following the CBRS authorisation process for years and you are not aware of a similar process for C Band; well, that’s got me thinking.

If anybody can find any information that confirms C Band spectrum can be shared via FW’s ‘Spectrum Controller’ then that would clear things up. I’ve had a brief look on the website but will do more research later in the week.

I suspect that the biocidal d2p technology is also not unique to Symphony. They are very coy when it comes to mentioning the active chemical and make no mention of patented tech etc. There is no need for this secrecy as the active chemical has to be made public by registering on the BPR. Yes, I believe it will be effective against Covid-19 but I do not believe it is unique to Symphony.

Hi 123ABC, I'm interested to hear your understanding of C Band and why you believe spectrum sharing is not possible. My only reason to be cautious here is because I'll openly admit that I'm not an expert in this technology and any contributions, positive or negative, are welcome. But let me begin by explaining my understanding and if anyone has an alternative view then I'm happy to reconsider.

I believe C Band is just another part of the spectrum (3.7 and 4.2 GHz) and due to its higher frequency than CBRS (3.5 GHz) it has a greater capacity to carry data. Although C Band transmits over shorter distance than CBRS, C Band is seen as a sweet point on the spectrum having a balance of capacity and geographical reach ideal for 5G. C Band is currently used by government, military and satellite to cable TV providers. But the FCC are now making some of the spectrum available for 5G with the remainder still available for TV programming.

Already, 23 countries have auctioned or allocated C-Band spectrum for 5G usage. I cannot say how many of these countries are considering spectrum sharing and if we are honest, none of us can be 100% sure that spectrum sharing will establish itself as the de facto protocol in any region. However, it makes perfect commercial sense to me that if you paid the money to own spectrum, you will want to lease unused capacity when available as a means to claw back some of that expenditure. See the following link for an introduction to C Band..

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200106/spectrum/gsa-c-band-is-most-important-spectrum-band-for-5g

Regarding the 'New Thinking' project (along with similar projects in US). I have previously described 5G roll out as a chicken and egg situation where consumers are reluctant to invest in 5G enabled devices before the industry provide 5G services/infrastructure while at the same time the industry may be hesitant to invest until enough consumers own 5G devices. In such a situation it is understandable that the industry invest in projects where revenue is not a motivating factor.

Thanks, I had a look at OPRO website and within 5 seconds I was able to identify the technology is based on silver ions. With Symphony however I must have spent over an hour last week trying to find a simple answer regarding the technology used - nothing, no patents, no explanation, website deliberately vague.

Why the smoke and mirrors? I've been investing for 25 years and I've never come across this level of secrecy regarding the technology behind the investment. Very frustrating, as an investor I cannot put my money into a 'nod and a wink'. I thought the snake oil sales technique had been discredited many years ago.

I've asked on this blog a couple of weeks ago if anyone knew the active ingredient behind d2p, nobody seems to know. This information should be freely available in the public domain especially as the chemical would have to be registered with the BPR for sale in Europe. Are Symphony being this secretive with their customers?

Something isn't quite right here. I found this interview with Michael Laurier to be cringeworthy...

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/929018/symphony-environmental-technologies-marks--significant-breakthrough--in-coronavirus-technology-929018.html

Stilted conversation, awkward pauses, a complete lack of conviction. Call it a sixth sense but he looks like a guy who knows he isn't playing with a straight bat. If I met this guy in a business scenario I'd just want to get as far away from him as quickly as I could. Others may not agree but sometimes you got to go with your gut instinct.

Interesting. Confirms by belief at the time that the $4bn raised for CBRS was indeed at the lower end of estimates. So lets see what happens for C-band. At least we now have a target from Morgan Stanley against which we can judge the success of the December auctions. I'm pretty sure that if it wasn't for Covid we would see a lot more enthusiasm for 5G. Fingers crossed that come December the market can see beyond the Covid news.