Member Info for lootgaloot

The divestment of Broken Hill is another potential source of funds. Surely it's no big surprise that at some point CCZ will have to issue more shares? That's not a concern for me.

Down another 11.7% on ASX overnight. Also a 1.5m sell at close yesterday. Difficult to understand as I took the RNS as a 'still on course' update. I think the need for addition drilling to determine the depth in combination with an upcoming 'quite period' due to raining season may have scared away some of the short term holders. I'm in no hurry to add more; I think I need to digest this recent fall which is quite unexpected imo.

@adamsmith I agree, ditching losing stocks is a very good discipline. Not least because of the opportunity cost of hanging on while you could have put what remains of your money to better use elsewhere. I'd even say that the discipline to ride your winners and ditch your losers is the number one secret to successful investing. I can't say I always practice what I preach but I am much better than when I started over 20 years ago.

I remember you urging caution on this share a few months back. I'm always happy to listen but I didn't feel you really landed a killer punch. That's nothing against your analysis; in fact, I don't think I've heard anything from anybody as to why this company is a bad investment. Lot's of comments on accounting practices and long lead times on collecting revenues but nothing to shake my belief that the MANO share price can and will increase over time.

And yet, I made the decision to sell at £2.00 (30% loss) following the recent exodus of institutions. I'm happier out than in but I still cannot bring myself to criticise the company. For me, it still appears to have all the features that attracted me in the first place. Yet there are certain facts that cannot be ignored. Clearly several institutions and even the founder of the company consider it wise to exit or reduce their position and if I was still a shareholder that would make me very uncomfortable. I've learnt that sometimes you just need to walk away, even if you don't know why.

I've come to the conclusion that while the company can make money, the revenue is very lumpy and of poor visibility. It leads me to the conclusion that the company really isn't suited to being a plc. Perhaps the Saudi wealth fund is a more natural home for a company like this than the stock exchange. I'm not even sure that the company needs to be on the stock exchange.

All of the recent activity points to a delisting. I may be wrong but it is the only way I can reconcile my belief that the company will generate good profits into the future with the recent shareholder churn. The fact that most of the major shareholders are acting in unison and were prepared to take a 30% haircut says to me that this may not end well for private investors.

If you are right then the next set of results could be a buying opportunity. You would have to be very brave imo. Any idea on how much the Philippines government have spent on this project so far? One hope is that a civil servant realises the need to push things along. Otherwise SRT need to find another £5m to keep the lights on and it's not obvious where that money will come from. I'll carry on watching but I'm unlikely to buy anytime soon.

Ms. Ruddock stressed that the next step must involve a legally robust ban in legislation that, “prevents any loopholes or legal challenges from the offshore oil and gas industry, especially in the context of existing fossil fuel entitlements and leases.”

SRT has been on my watch list for a while. Lots of good things to say about the business and ST but time is dragging on now. Next months results will be interesting to compare to where we were in September. It will tell a story and I'm afraid it will not be pretty. A contract win may give them more options regarding financing but I'm not confident these government contracts will be a priority post-covid. I'd be uncomfortable if this was my largest holding.

@viable. It's refreshing to see somebody on these boards who is prepared to take the time to draw on your network of contact and fully scope out the project before replying. Your expertise is greatly appreciated and I look forward to your reply when you are ready.

Gotcha. A lot of tonnage needs to be extracted to get at the seam which is rich in mineralisation. Subtract for other losses during processing.

Another question; if I may. Knowing what you know now (I accept it's an evolving story) how promising do you consider 'Big One'. I've heard 2% is very good but anything over 1% is still commercial. I'm sure wherever I read that it was meant as a 'rule of thumb'. If a true average for Big One is 1.3% then why the excitement from BOD. Spin? Or are there other reasons beyond just the mineralisation levels that make this attractive?

Thanks for any insights.

@viable "A true average is possibly 1.3% Cu ". Can you explain this please. To a non-techie like me this seems low compared to the figures quoted for each hole.

Expenditure 6 months ended 30 September…
- £6.9m admin costs
- £3m expenditure on product development
- £1.6m investing activities

Going into this 6 month period they had £5m cash (only because they raised £5.5 million in loans and the share issue). But here’s the really worrying part…

£8.5 million in loan debt; £6m of which has a maturity date within the next 12 months.

The only saving grace is there appears to be a £10m credit facility. If I’m reading it correctly, they only have £4m left available. Interest rates 8 – 10%.

So the company is surviving on high interest borrowing and even then it may exhaust that lifeline in the next 12 months.

Two questions…

Why are admin costs so high?
Why is there £7.5m trade receivables sitting on the books? (to be fair they seem to be working on this as it was £15m only 6 months previously).

Surely it would be better for everyone concerned if the minister came out and said that this ban on O&G extraction ALSO INCLUDES BARRYROE....

Greens are happy.
Government gets a monkey off their back.
Minister wins brownie points.
PVR shareholders finally get to know where they stand and can begin legal proceedings to compensate for money sunk on a licence that was previously granted and developed in good faith.

It seems to me that legal proceedings against the government have a higher chance of success than the current situation and could be quite lucrative.

The only loser would be the Irish taxpayer; but then who cares about them?

As mentioned previously, it looks like a token effort from directors to distract attention from the exodus of institutions last week. I sold out today because I don't want to be at the mercy of government policy regarding propping up failing businesses. MANO will come good (the Saudi wealth fund can play the long game). But I've learnt from the housing market to never underestimate the extent to which the free-market Tories will prop up markets for political gain. They've robbed me of the right to a roof over my head and I'm not going to let them do the same with my SIPP.

By the way, yes I have sympathy for 'failing' businesses just as I have sympathy for companies that are owed money by these 'failing' businesses. The sad part is that most of these companies are 'failing' because of government enforced lockdown.

The RNS is just confirmation of Geophys and Jorc going ahead as planned and next assay results imminent. Nothing the market wasn't expecting to hear. But nice to see we are on course.

The current market makes the dotcom era look tame. I've never known anything like this upside down world. Buy stocks in companies that make stuff that people will still want in 20 years time. Or should I say Chinese people want in 20 years time.

Tipped by TW?....

Here come the clowns.

Still waiting on assays from 307-314RC; that's my understanding.

From Jan 11th RNS...
"Further potential upside should become apparent when assays for drill-holes 307-14RC are received, as visible, shallow copper oxides and sulphides were intersected."

And I believe 307-14RC have already been drilled so we are jusyt waiting on lab. Again from RNS...
"Following the completion of drill-holes 307-314RC, Castillo's geology team reviewed the samples and observed visible copper oxide and sulphide mineralisation."

I don't know how this can be interpreted any other way than we have already drilled and waiting on lab assays in the coming weeks.

Furthermore, I believe these pending assay results will be very significant...
"Samples, which have been sent to the laboratory for analysis, should potentially confirm there are more extensions to known copper mineralisation at depth and extend the strike extent. In addition, verifying the presence of incremental copper sulphide mineralisation is significant as this further enhances the potential scalability of the Big One Deposit."

However, further drilling has now ceased and the remaining 8 holes can be drilled after the raining season...
"While there is a pause in drilling activities, due to the commencement of the wet season across northern Australia, a geophysics campaign is being formulated to identify new bedrock conductors (and potential test-drill targets). In addition, the Board has instructed the geology team to commence modelling a JORC compliant resource "

Judging by the latest RNS.

I'd love to see this in double figures but if we have a period of consolidation above 6p that's OK too.

It's been said before but worth repeating; the nature of this industry is that every sale is recurring business. If a customer decides to formulate on itaconic acid then that formulation will not change for many years. The customer will continue to buy itaconic acid for as long as they continue to make that product. It would require significant time/work to replace with another ingredient.

What this means for the next set of results is that any revenues recorded by Itaconix are pretty much 'baked in'. Next years revenues will be higher as new business accumulates. Compare this with a stock which relies on the up/down of commodity prices or winning contracts for fixed term work or selling goods to a consumer who is free to switch to your competitor.

RetiredBanker gives some good advice but I disagree with the 50:50 analogy. The way I see it; even if revenues disappoint this time then just hold on to your shares because next years revenues will be all the repeat business from this year plus any newly won business from next year.

This is a true growth story; the only issue is what market cap represents a mature market where ITX have essentially fully exploited the technology and have effectively saturated the market for their product.

This share is starting to p1$$ me off. Losing patience with week after week declines. Thinking of selling soon and with my trading history; that's normally a strong buy signal.