Member Info for lootgaloot

Looks like the big seller is back again today; 2 x 500K this afternoon and 800K on Friday. The two 870K sells on Thursday may also be from this seller. Whether it's one or more sellers it really feels like stock is being dumped in the lead up to the Big One results.

I made the point on reading the Luanshya Project update that the market would not like hearing that more drilling was required at Big One next year, yet there was no mention of JORC and application for mining licence. We shall see what the company announce (probably this Sunday) but it will be very disappointing if they are not going for JORC and licence immediately following this campaign as this was promised.

I don't want to get ahead of myself but one has to ask why the change of plan. Are the latest drill results below expectation hence the need for further drilling? I'll try not to speculate too much because we are still waiting for the official RNS but this concern would explain recent selling and the falling share price.

I didn't vote for Brexit but I have to admit that Brexit is doing exactly what it was supposed to do; putting power back into the hands of working people. Nobody likes inflation, especially the middle class who want everything for nothing. The Eastern Europeans will not return now they realise the standard of living and job opportunities in their home countries is far better than UK (I lived/worked in Wroclaw, Poland for 3 years and saw it first hand). We will all have to get used to paying a bit extra and if some of that goes to working British people to give them a fighting chance of a comfortable life then we all benefit as a nation.

Surprised it's taken this long to reach mainstream news. The news has been about HGV driver shortages for several weeks now; why should bus drivers be any different?

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-bus-services-cancelled-due-115401606.html

@aprogerson, I agree we are progressing at pace and I was very surprised to read that drilling will begin at Zambia this year. This should maintain news flow during the raining season at Queensland.

I’m impressed with how much progress the board has made this year, it’s a little over 12 months since they listed in London and in that time they have raised £6.4m cash, appointed the necessary technical expertise to the board (Geoff Reed), made plans to divest Broken Hill and made significant progress at Big One. By the end of the year initial drilling at Arya and Luanshya will also be complete.

One wonders what needs to happen before any of this progress is reflected in the share price?

I’m a little disappointed that the latest announcement didn’t mention JORC and mining licence at Big One. Instead, we are told of plans for further drilling. While the need for further drilling isn’t a surprise to me, I understood the plan was to JORC and apply for licence first. Has this now been postponed? I think management should clarify this.

There’s actually quite a lot to digest in tonight’s announcement…

IP survey significantly enhances the probability for a discovery.
Inaugural drilling campaign potentially commencing in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Big One drilling campaign now complete and expect to report all assay results shortly.
Planning for another drilling campaign at Big One.
Drilling at Arya on track to commence in September.

News on Zambia just released

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CCZ/02414904.pdf

How proven is the Arya resource? The simple answer is, not at all. BHP discovered the Arya prospect in mid-nineties from aero-magnetic data showing an anomaly in otherwise quite surrounding terrain. It was classified as a priority target and subsequent chemical analysis of surface rock chips (up to 1.8% copper) led BHP to recommend drill testing, but this was never carried out.

Castillo’s three drill holes in September will be the first cores from the area and no, I’m not saying anything will happen quickly, we are at the first steps in a very long journey. However, if these drills find nothing, it would be a body blow not just to the Arya prospect but to Castillo as a company.

Before anyone jumps in to say there are several other targets within Arya; yes I know, but I stand by my view that the current drilling at Arya are high risk but also high return should we hit significant copper intercepts. I must admit I was counting on Big One to move the share price higher so that I could sell enough for a free ride on Arya. That hasn’t happened so I’m now feeling a little over exposed going in to this drilling campaign.

The timing on Big One remains on course for completion before the end of the year and the onset of the raining season. Some assay results have been delayed due to a backlog at the laboratory but the drilling itself should have finished now. They have said they may go back to drill a few more holes if they get time before the raining season. I’m expecting visible core results around early October with assays hopefully before the end of the year.

Assuming the assay results are good, the company said they would JORC and apply for a mining licence early next year. However, it is my personal belief that further drilling at Big One will take place next year; both for further exploration of areas of interest arising from this years campaign and also to explore some of the other targets at Big One identified from Geophys.

Indeed, Geophys results suggest an area a few hundred yards north of current drilling could be several times larger than the currently explored region. For this reason, I believe an initial JORC resource estimate in 2022 will be later revised; but this is just speculation and not of immediate concern.

Welcome to the board Shorn. Your early research covers the important aspects of this investment. I’m glad aprogerson has given a balanced reply; we’re all investors hoping for the best, but it’s good to consider both the pros and cons.

The Big One appears to be near surface, continuous and of decent mineralisation. But as aprogerson points out, the size of the resource seems modest; perhaps because drilling and assay results have focused on only a very small area to date.
However, the current drilling extends along the line of lode and results expected soon should provide a better estimate.
Geophys has also identified several other areas of interest at Big One which, taken together, may amount to a sizable resource. The hope is that JORC and mining licence application will follow but more drilling will surely be required and a revised resource estimate expected at a future date.

Nevertheless, Big One is unlikely to be the ‘company maker’. It’s attraction would be as a shallow, open cast mine from which unprocessed ore can be readily extracted and trucked at low cost to nearby processors in the Mt. Isa region. In this respect, it could provide the cash flow necessary for the much bigger project at Arya.

Arya both frightens and excites me. On the one hand, as potentially one of the largest copper discoveries in Queensland in decades, a proven resource could launch Castillo as a true mid-tier copper producer valued at many multiples of the current £25m market cap.

On the other hand, if the current drill is a dud then we are reliant on Zambia which could be several years from providing value, if at all. This is the nature of small cap miners, it’s a gamble and a lot rests on the outcome of the Arya drill which will become known later in the year.

Finally, the IPO of Broken Hill seems to have divided opinion on these boards. Personally I’m in favour. If Big One and Arya come good then this more than justifies my investment in Castillo. Free shares and the option of buying more in Broken Hill at discount offers diversification in terms of management of assets and fund raising. I’d rather make progress at Broken Hill with separate management than have it sit on the shelf or act as a distraction.

Old news from February

It’s probably my frustration showing. I expected the share price to move on several occasions and now wondering what it will take? I think a resource estimate for Big One with justification for open-pit operation should help; if only for the fact that it gives investors something tangible in terms of ‘net present value’. If further exploratory drilling is required next year (which I believe may be the case) they can always upgrade resources at that point.

My concern is that they don’t give us a resource estimate in September/October but instead just tell us further drilling is needed. Then I see the price languish at 2p and I’m trying to think ‘what else will move the price’. The Broken Hill IPO didn’t seem to have an effect, nothing is expected from Zambia for at least 12 months and Cangai barely gets a mention these days. Even the scouting drills at Arya, according to SI Capital, only refine the geophysical model so I’m not sure we should expect too much this year.

The price of copper and other listed copper explorers have done well since CCZ was first listed in London. Yet the CCZ share price is actually lower than its opening price almost exactly one year ago. In my opinion, some of the reasons include; slow progress in terms of meters drilled and number of holes, too much focus on one small area rather than extending along the line of load then coming back to more interesting intercepts later and finally, poor use of twitter and other social media to communicate a strategy beyond what is possible via RNS statements.

We seem to be in a cycle of; release drill results, a statement from Ged Hall read from pre-prepared notes, thumbs up from SI Capital and then the market shrugs its shoulders. Then repeat for next results. Other listed companies are doing Q&As and zoom meetings. I think a lot more could be said about open-pit possibility and trucking at low cost to refiners in the near locality. Maybe some explanation on how soon Big One could generate cash flow and how this could fund exploration at Arya. Don’t assume the average investor can see a bigger picture by joining the dots between RNS releases.

Midnight Sunday is the norm for CCZ to release drilling news and I agree with Storey89 that news flow needs to speed up given the Big One drilling is set to complete this month and we still only have three assay results from the 26 hole campaign. My guess is that we get assays from 318RC and 326RC midnight/early morning and then visuals from all remaining holes by early September.

So at some point in September/October we will have the full data from Big One drilling and I cannot see them release this without some further interpretation. I think the only thing that's going to move the share price is a resource estimate but I don't see that happening this year as my feeling is that another 20+ hole campaign is planned for Big One next year (just a hunch).

Maybe initial results from Arya give us a bit of a lift early in the new year but I'm prepared for another 12 to 18 months of a share price around 2p.

@aprogerson, just seen your post before I leave for work. Agree, we need to see some decent mineralisation along the load. 1% may not cut it? Other factors may dictate commercialisation but we are in a good neighbourhood.

Along with 318RC & 326RC assays, hopefully we should get 319RC & 321RC which are the first bore holes to the west of current drilling. There are another 19 holes which are located at intervals westward along the line of lode. These 19 holes are being drilled now and should be complete this month so hopefully visible results early September followed by assays some time later in September. Certainly by October we should have a good idea if this is commercial.

I guess drilling starts at Arya in October? and when finished, they may return to Big One if they get time before raining season starts in the new year. My gut feel is that more Big One drilling will be required in 2022 but this has not been confirmed. It shouldn't delay application for mining licence however because I hope, by then, we have a clearer picture of the Big One resource.

There is also a very promising Geophys result a few hundred yards to the north of Big One. They haven't mentioned what they intend to do but it could potentially be three to four times the size of Big One. I believe drilling is difficult because it is located on a steep incline at the surface and it's currently not possible to position a drilling rig in the area. I'd love to hear more about their plans to explore this area but I also understand the need to focus on the current strategy.

I’m not expecting much from the 318RC & 326RC assays.

318RC is yet another drill in the vicinity of 301RC. They seem obsessed with this very small area based on the fact that 301RC returned 3m @ 10.88% and the historical B07 returned 3m @ 12.25%. However, drilling deeper, the market was underwhelmed when 315RC returned 3m @ 1.22% and 316RC returned 5m @ 1.06%.

318RC goes deeper again in the same small area; do we really expect to get anything more than a few meter intercept at about 1%? I doubt it.

326RC is another deep one but could be even more disappointing. I assume this hole is to explore deeper than 303RC which returned 5m @ 7.34%. Yes, the very small area between 301RC and 303RC has yielded high mineralisation at shallow depth but as we have seen with 315RC and 316RC, mineralisation at greater depth has failed to excite the market.

I consider the next assays from 318RC and 326RC as just finishing up on a small area that looked promising from historic and initial drilling but probably hasn’t lived up to expectation. I base this opinion on market reaction thus far but I also accept that the results are good, if not spectacular.

I will be glad once we start getting assays from the remaining holes westward along the line of lode. I don’t expect the high mineralisation found at 301RC and 303RC but I am hopeful of good consistent intercepts of above 1% and maybe the opportunity to surprise on the upside with one or two localised areas of higher mineralisation. This, I believe, would qualify as a solid commercial resource from which we can apply for a licence.

Sorry, my mistake. RNS is also correct but the text wrap in the table is difficult to read.

Lol, looks like someone messed up the header titles on the RNS release. It shows everything was voted 'against'. I nearly had kittens until I checked the website with the correct format...

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CCZ/02402121.pdf

OHCHR stance seems adversarial towards both government and Jubilee. This is understandable at this stage. However, I hope this organisation is not full of left wing ideologues with a "profit = evil" mindset. My understanding is that Jubilee are part of the solution and it is possible to both do good and make a profit. The alternative is to leave the dump just sit there.

If your investment strategy is to actively seek out companies with poor management who deliberately mislead shareholders then you've come to the right place. You may want to consider that the clock is now ticking for SO4. They must secure finance before the end of the year. The would be lender has the whip hand, the longer they drag out negotiations the lower the share price drops and the greater share of equity they can grab for their funding. The share price could very well spiral downwards from here. At the very least I would wait to hear how much cash is needed.

Perhaps I had braced myself for worse but the actual problems encountered are nowhere hear as bad as I feared. Rather than any fundamental flaw in the infrastructure, it strikes me as an operational miscalculation regarding salt feed rate and requirement. The failure here is one of contingency and poor planning combined with borderline criminal communication to shareholders.

These issues, if encountered by a competent management, could have easily been planned for and funds raised well in advance at sensible market rates. The fact that the issues encountered are not wholly unexpected during a production ramp up makes this all the more sickening.

As I said, I was braced for some fundamental design flaw or a list of snagging issues as long as your arm. The fact that we are now over a barrel, having to accept lending terms way beyond what could have been secured in the previous fund raise (or the one before that; there's been so many) is a bitter pill to swallow.

In fact, I think I would have preferred to hear there was a major fire/explosion/design flaw; all these things can be fixed. Poor management, on the other hand, is less easily put right.

I think the next RNS will have to set out a clear strategy with full disclosure on reasons for the delays. Any institutional investor handing over fresh cash will insist on that and imo that information must be made public. If anything good comes from this sorry affair, it is that management will be very clear that this is the last chance saloon.

For these large mining projects, I'm actually quite a forgiving shareholder. I understand delays and setbacks come with the territory; which is why I take a 5 to 10 year view. I also understand that moving into production is one of the most critical steps in a project that has taken many years to complete. For this reason I have been tolerant of past delays.

However, my issue with the latest announcement is that it comes literally days after a succession of tweets on twitter to the effect of "all systems go", "pedal to the metal" or some such junk. I think these tweets are highly misleading and unethical.