Member Info for lootgaloot

Interesting you should say that. I was just talking to a friend yesterday who works in a casino and he's happy because he finishes at 10pm. Now he can get the bus home instead of spending £50/week on uber. I'm not sure if it will make a huge difference but many people who work in leisure are young and can't afford to run a car. I know we have a few bus drivers on this forum so maybe they will start to notice new regulars on their route at this time.

'taxpayer funding' would be more accurate.

https://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-12-ios-14-rumors-apple-likely-to-launch-new-5g-iphone-in-october/

Thanks Spotthecat.

I'm still learning here so its good to know that ‘Spectrum Controller’ isn't the only source of revenue for Fed. The AWS and Azure tie in are great exposure to AI and cloud computing but again it would be great to have some idea on revenue.

The news item linked to by jaffa is the kind of announcements that will demonstrate the utility of shared spectrum. Some more news at of after the results would be good but I still don't expect too much.

I sold most of my position in ALM earlier this month so I have the cash to get back in at a better price. Even with today’s 7% rise, I think I’ll wait until after the results and probably after US elections.

Yes. some revenues, even a small amount, would be useful as it may provide an indication on margins and some ability to extrapolate to when the market becomes mature. At the moment we are flying blind.

I also agree that the results may surprise. I'm still trying to get a handle on FW and I can't claim to be aware of all revenue sources. For example, we know there is tie up with Amazon AWS but again I do not know when we could expect revenue from that.

I can only call it as I see it and I'm always happy for people to poke holes in my posts; I'm certainly not an expert. You've been in ALM a lot longer than me; I'm wondering what you meant by 'initial deployment to 40 customers'.

shares down = opportunity

I'd be very surprised if we see significant revenues from Fed Wireless this year or even next. My understanding is that the spectrum licences are still being auctioned and allocated. I can make the analogy of expecting a train company to make revenue while the track is still being laid.

Even once the auctions are complete, it will still take time before the public start to use 5g in significant numbers. At the moment very few people own 5g enabled devices and the incentive to upgrade will depend on the industry launching 5g products and services which are attractive to the consumer.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. However, I'm not pessimistic because the industry has been here before with the adoption of 3g. There will always be 'early adopters' on both sides who will drive the market. But even these 'early adopters' will not be sufficient to create a market for FW. Feds ‘Spectrum Controller’ relies on a secondary market for bandwidth developing; and this will only happen once the network becomes busy enough so that bandwidth begins to have a scarcity value (not all the time but at certain peak times and locations).

So there are many hurdles that exist between now and when FW start to generate revenue and of course nothing is 100% certain. We assume 5g will be widely adopted and we assume there will be a secondary market for bandwidth but neither is as certain as death and taxes.

So, no; I don't expect revenue in the foreseeable future but that's not to say that the share price wont rise in anticipation of these things happening. I hope to see a rising share price at the end of the year as we will have C band and Ofcom auctions in December and January. As we head into 2021 and Covid is no longer hogging the headlines then I can see investors looking around for the next big investment theme and I hope that will be 5g. By the beginning of 2022 I'd expect the general public to be aware of 5g and the new services that it enables. Only then do I anticipate significant revenue.

So Covid has delayed things and stretched out what may have happened in 12 to 18 months into a 2 to 3 year time frame. I agree with people who say that the underlying investments and potential are still unchanged; however, that's not to say that the investment case is unchanged.

If I think back to why I invested initially, part of the reason (not all) was because the share price was greatly discounted to NAV. ALM was therefore a value stock. That is still true but since the recent stock market correction 'value stocks' are no longer that rare. A typical value investor may now be more attracted to Restaurant, Airline, Hotel stocks than to ALM.

This sounds like a negative post but I think it's important to look at the reasons why we are where we are. We cannot continue to deny that Covid has thwarted the adoption of new business models and we must face the fact that the reasons why we bought ALM initially may still exist but the investment case i

Clearly the drop in share price is related to sentiment in the wider market regarding lockdown. However, SGC along with FGP,NEX,GOG seem to have been disproportionately effected. I just wonder how much of Mondays drop can be attributed to the DfT announcement that the taxpayer is effectively taking on the expenses for current rail franchises along with taking the revenue (such that it is atm).

This is effectively nationalisation of the rail network; is it not? See the following link...

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-uk-railway-privatisation-nationalisation-public-160701896.html

So here's a thought. Perhaps SGC are being marked down along with the rail operators even though SGC do not own any rail franchise. These anomalies sometimes occur in the market especially as institutional investors can sometimes get lost in the news cycle rather than judge individual companies on their merits. If this corrects itself over the coming days we may possibly 'gap up' 10% or is that wishful thinking?

10% may not seem a lot given how much I am down on SGC already but I feel this company owes me something; so maybe a quick speculative buy tomorrow with a view to selling at the end of the week? I'm still a long term holder (people will continue to use buses long after Covid) but the opportunity for a short term trade is probably the only way of making some money in this market.

When we finally reach £1 I think I'll be more happy for Nucky than myself. No more crying into his porridge every morning.

I'll admit to being surprised by the extent of the share price decline and it's perfectly understandable to be a little frustrated. But as Echo and Nix already said; nothing has changed regarding the underlying investments. Unfortunately this could have further to drop in the short term. I'm looking to after the US elections when sentiment may improve and the auctions in Dec/Jan will add further upside. Long term I'm still confident but it's sometimes difficult to see through the current sentiment.

And we've still not even hit winter yet. If Covid-19 is seasonal then there's a lot more bad news to come.

Thanks Hounddog, they seem unusually secretive even though the chemical would have to be registered with BPR and therefore in the public domain.

Does anyone know the active ingredient in d2p i.e. the chemical name. It should be registered with the European BPR. Is there patent protection? I'd greatly appreciate any information regarding the basic chemistry.

So from your reply it appears that you are only interested in price movement and have no interest in the business behind the share price? If this is the case then you should look into 'technical analysis'. Personally I believe TA to be a load of hogwash but some people swear by it.

If your only concern is the movement of share price then every share on the market has a price that moves up and down but you chose to invest in ALM. I still can't understand what is the attraction of ALM to you? Why did you invest here in the first place? You must have had a reason.

Hi Nucky; if it helps, here are the two questions I asked myself before I invested in ALM...

Do you believe 5g will be the new generation wireless standard in the near future (12 to 24 months from now)?
Do you believe Fed Wireless provide a service which is fundamental to efficient functioning of 5g market?

If your answer to one or both of the above questions is 'No', then I would also encourage you sell out now. However, if your answer is 'Yes' to the above two questions then please tell us where your concerns lie.

Personally I'm almost 100% certain to answer 'Yes' to Q1 and probably about 90% certain of Q2. As an investor, those are about as good odds as you'll get anywhere. Nothing is 100% certain in this world but as long as I can answer 'Yes' to the above questions then I'm happy to be invested and I just need to be patient.

However, nothing goes up in a straight line. Full disclosure, I actually sold 75% of my ALM holding last week because I expect a period of weakness. I don't expect the upcoming results to tell us anything new and I believe tech stocks will be a little out of favour in the foreseeable future. At the same time I expect the price to rise again later in the year with the C Band auction in December and Ofcom auction in January.

My point is, there will be periods of weakness; I've taken a risk of selling short term to buy again next month at a hopefully cheaper price. Others will have decided to hold even though they are aware of the ups and downs. Each to their own; but what I cant understand is; if you answer 'Yes' to my two questions above then why are you not confident in your investment? Maybe you can explain?

Even though I'm gutted to have sold out and missed this unexpected news, I still think 190p is a bargain. I wouldn't be surprised to see a refusal followed by a higher bid.

I must have the worst timing on the market! Sold out earlier this month. Oh well, good luck to current holders.

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/watching-and-waiting-for-the-us-to-unlock/27714/

Not too late to buy in. At a little over £1m revenues this is still in its infancy.

NASDAQ down another 3% on opening. I think tech stocks are in for a bit of a correction in the near term. I must admit I sold half my ALM today at 39p with a view to buying back if we get to low thirties. My long term view of ALM has not changed but I was a little overexposed and I'm not comfortable holding any tech stock at the moment. I've also sold out all of my KWS. I expect both ALM and KWS to be higher than today in 12 months time but its the next couple of months that concern me.