Member Info for lootgaloot

Interesting that now the BOD have secured their future salaries with the fund raise and secured their jobs by passing all resolutions at AGM; they can now return to calling their negotiations with the General a "long running DISPUTE". Well, at least honesty has been returned to shareholders if nothing else.

I think you're spot on. Investment Trusts etc. nearly always trade at a discount to NAV. It's true that ALM have a way to go yet, both in terms of closing the discount and in increasing NAV. But as you said a share price north of 70p would be very tempting to take some profit.

I have confidence that FW will become increasingly easier to value as the adoption of 5g becomes apparent and revenues grow. However, Spin is a different matter. I'm not qualified to have an opinion on the technology and even if the tech took off, it still seems difficult to predict a fair price. Spin seems a more binary play and I'm not sure I'd stick around based solely on the potential of Spin.

50p -55p would be a good target price once the auction is complete. I'd then expect some news flow around broker re-rating. Edison could come out with a revised NAV for FW and I can also see Investor Chronicle flying the flag a little more now that it has done its alpha report. So fingers crossed for a good run up to the end of 2020.

Decided to buy more to take advantage of recent momentum. I may regret it as this takes ALM to 20% of my portfolio. Not really comfortable with that level but I see my latest tranche as short term; if it rises or falls 20% then I'm out. It's also a bit of a milestone day for me because I've now reached break even on my average purchase price; I also bagged the special dividend earlier in the year so I'm in profit overall.

We're seeing almost daily share price increases at the moment and this is directly related to the CBRS auction which has another couple of months to run. I think the auction also focuses investment on 5g again, at least for those that can see beyond Covid. Finally, and it's been said several times on here, over 80% of the company is owned by institutions. I cannot see a significant sell off in the near to medium future.

I believe the auction process takes 2 to 3 months and after only a couple of weeks into the process we are seeing almost a daily rise in share price. If this continues I'm tempted to buy more ALM even though I've always considered ALM a minority hold in my portfolio. What do people think? Can we really expect this to rise as the auction proceeds with regular reports of increasing gross proceeds.

Thanks Jeffa and Dorsett,

For anyone who doesn't have the time to read through the document linked by jeffa; here is an excerpt...

Is Federated Wireless involved in the PAL Auction?
We are not bidding for PAL licenses. Our business model is to manage shared spectrum, not to own spectrum. We are involved in two key ways, however. First, we have developed a Spectrum Evaluation Tool that allows our customers to analyze spectrum use on a county by county basis in order to make informed decisions about which counties to bid on for
PALs. Several of our customers have been using our tool in order to sharpen their knowledge in preparation for the auction. Secondly, we will take a strong role in the secondary market that is expected to develop once the auction is complete. Our Spectrum Controller will allow this market to flourish because it will track and manage PAL ownership along with all leaser data.

If FW are successful in bidding for some of the licences, when would we know. Should we expect RNS soon?

I'm more surprised by yesterdays rise on the back of results which were more or less in line with expectations. I don't think we will see much action this side of Christmas.

Great set of results. Disappointed about the dividend but that's to be expected in the current climate. I'm actually not too concerned if (as stated) the dividend is used to pay down debt. Leverage is already reducing; 2.58 versus 2.90 in 2019. I'd like to see it a bit lower as this has been a stick to beat us with in the past. Otherwise I cannot fault the performance. Looking at the results you wouldn't know we have just been through a major hit to the economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53501738

I was going to buy in yesterday but glad I didn't given today's drop. Anybody know why -6.8% today; seems out of kilter with the rest of the market.

Uncharacteristically optimistic from NuckyT. There must be Sunshine on Leith today.

I sold out recently at £8.80. Looks like it may have been the right decision but too early to know.

The markets are currently very sensitive to Covid-19 related news. I was uncomfortable with exposure to a region where I have no concept of how the flu will impact the economy and no idea whether government figures can be trusted. Too many unknowns plus some very interesting 'bounce back' opportunities in good solid companies with a UK focus (GFS, SGC, BAKK) are now looking more attractive.

Also playing on my mind was JP Morgan recent exit and I see today Schroder have dropped below 5%. Why? I don't know but there is simply not enough information for me to get a feeling on what's happening on the ground.

You may be right to drip feed cash into this stock over several months. You may benefit from lower entry price which I anticipate to be the case well into next year. For me however, I believe developing economies like Georgia may have dodged the first wave of Covid but I'm not so sure they haven't just delayed the inevitable.

All guess work but that's all any of us can do.

Should get an RNS at about 7:30am. Click on RNS icon above.

I do not expect them to be 'hugely upbeat' regardless of the figures. It would simply be irresponsible to be anything other than cautious. I therefore expect the results to be largely down beat.

However, I believe most of the bad news is already priced in to the share. 50p seems to be a very strong floor to the share price; we have bounced off this level several times. My only worry (although I don't expect it) is for some unknown bad news to emerge which would crash us through the 50p support.

For me, the big news will be if they intend to pay the interim dividend in October. I believe market (and my personal) expectation is that they won't. Having taken government help, I cannot see how they could pay a dividend.

It will be interesting to see what happens First Group and other smaller rivals. Even if passenger numbers decline by 20% in the 'new normal', SGC could take a larger share of the market. A larger slice of a smaller pie.

Back to normal in August, good to hear. You will laugh at this price in five years' time.

Hi tweedledee,

It's good to have a poster with first hand experience. How are passenger numbers looking atm? What's your view on how quickly we can get back to normal?

Agree 100% with the two previous posts.My feeling is that once we get into Q1 2021 this current price will start to look very cheap. Until then however it's a rocky road. I'll stick my neck out and say I don't think sub 40p is likely but if we has a second wave of the flu and another lockdown then all bets are off.

Hopefully this draws a line under historic fraudulent activity and the company has implemented the changes to ensure this never happens again. A little uncomfortable for us shareholders to be reminded of this in the news again but as I say hopefully we can draw a line and go forward from here.