Member Info for LONGWAIT

Some 11 hours after I had outed 1 DAYMAYBE as TheShen, mentioning his/her aliases on both forums, a post appears from Tom111, making an apparently innocuous remark about the other forum.

Has anyone here (apart from his aliases) ever heard of him?
He has been a member here for nearly 7 1/2 years and during that time, he has posted comments on Sound Energy (until today) a total of - once.
His only previous post was in June.
Within the hour, SHARETRADER123 appeared in order to protest his innocence, followed by oilpimpdxb, both of whom had previously been outed themselves.

tom111 is TheShen.

There are uncanny similarities between tom111's writing style and those of vampirekitten, wolfsonshaz, Bronxville and 1DAYMAYBE, all of whom have been outed, the last of whom just hours before tom111's unexpected appearance.

The other SOU forum has already been taken over by TheShen.
Almost all of the members posting there are aliases of his.

The same thing is starting to happen here.
My advice to any member here who is not TheShen would be to try to stop this forum going the same way as the other one.
Until TheShen was banned, it had become practically impossible to comment on PVR without being verbally abused by him or having to wade through long exchanges between him and himself or, in the case of people who had filtered him, masses of deleted comments.

Don't let it happen here!

Some 11 hours after I had outed 1 DAYMAYBE as TheShen, mentioning his/her aliases on both forums, a post appears from Tom111, making an apparently innocuous remark about the other forum.

Has anyone here (apart from his aliases) ever heard of him?
He has been a member here for nearly 7 1/2 years and during that time, he has posted comments on Sound Energy (until today) a total of - once.
His only previous post was in June.
Within the hour, SHARETRADER123 appeared in order to protest his innocence, followed by oilpimpdxb, both of whom had previously been outed themselves.

tom111 is TheShen.

There are uncanny similarities between tom111's writing style and those of vampirekitten, wolfsonshaz, Bronxville and 1DAYMAYBE, all of whom have been outed, the last of whom just hours before tom111's unexpected appearance.

The other SOU forum has already been taken over by TheShen.
Almost all of the members posting there are aliases of his.

The same thing is starting to happen here.
My advice to any member here who is not TheShen would be to try to stop this forum going the same way as the other one.
Until TheShen was banned, it had become practically impossible to comment on PVR without being verbally abused by him or having to wade through long exchanges between him and himself or, in the case of people who had filtered him, masses of deleted comments.

Don't let it happen here!

1DAYMAYBE does not need to change his name - he has enough already: at least 34 accounts on advfn and 15 here.
He is SHARETRADER123 and also TheShen, who was recently banned by LSE administrators, as well as p5tvr on both forums.
TheShen, Sharetrader123, and 1DAYMAYBE have all used the word 'clueless.'
TheShen, Sharetrader123, 1DAYMAYBE and p5tvr (on advfn) have all used the unusual insult, 'numptie.'
Sharetrader123 and 1DAYMAYBE have both used the word 'muppet' pejoratively. So has chesty1 on advfn.
1DAYMAYBE and chesty1 have both written 'me tinks'. SHARETRADER123 has written METHINKS.
1DAYMAYBE has used the words 'clueless' and '******.'
p5tvr on LSE has used the word 'clueless'.
p5tvr on advfn has used the insult 'clueless ******s.'
p5tvr on advfn and 1DAYMAYBE have used the exclamation, 'love it / loving it.'
1DAYMAYBE has written ggggrrrr ; chesty1 has written 'gggrrrrr!!!'
SHARETRADER123 = TheShen = p5tvr = chesty1 = at least 45 other accounts.

Today's news and market response seem to confirm what many of us had already thought: the share price has bottomed out.

On 22 April of this year, there was an argument between Manyana and Bronxville.
Manyana mentioned a company called Blinkx, in which I too had invested, and whose share price rocketed after having collapsed and after I, having allowed the doom and gloom of posters to influence my judgment, had sold my entire holding.
Manyana alleged that Bronxville was one of those who had castigated Blinkx; Bronxville retorted he had never heard of Blinkx and that Manyana was losing his memory.
Just after that, I was surprised when Bronxville wrote, in response to my complaint that TheShen was being extremely offensive: 'Longwait I'm not surprised The Shen takes the pizz out of you.. maybe investing in shares is not your forte..'
The following day, I posted the following;
'This is a short thank you to the administrators of LSE for removing TheShen's comments posted at 17:56 yesterday, in which he made extremely crude and insulting remarks about me.'
It so happens that an LSE member called Graybird DID castigate Blinkx:
hi six years i sat watch blinkx share dive just after Harvard man spoke, looks like he was right blink sp 270p down to 16p took 20k loss , was fed up with r n s we on track on track , what a load of lies
(Graybird, 20 April 2019, 11:02)
A coincidence?
Hardly.
Bronxville, Graybird and TheShen are one and the same person, the main proof being their use of certain peculiar words and expressions.
Bronxville sometimes 'asks' his friend 'papillon' on advfn for information, and papillon always 'reads' his request on LSE and publishes a reply on advfn.
Papillon has described Bronxville as 'a very knowledgeable Irish investor' and states further: 'What Bronxville states is very true'.
Of course, because, as I revealed months ago, papillon is TheShen.

I have just done a rough calculation: EOG's share of profit from Wressle, based on an estimated average of production figures, is about half of its market capitalisation.

That is quite apart from the considerable exploration potential.

It seems that the bottom reached last year when oil price futures went negative - 0.75p - was the all time low.

The price now is just 0.4 pence off the all time low.

Unless there is something wrong with this company which has not yet been divulged, the shares are - regardless of all the doom - ridiculously cheap.

My last post, in reply to MadCrann, timed at 00:10, still appears under my Member Info, but no longer appears here.
In reply to Neocantus: yes, I intend to go ahead, but if you really think it's a sign of paranoia, you are free to dispute any of my analysis.
Here is my reply to MadCrann:

You need have no fear that I am going mad, MadCrann!
I thought it was obvious by now that I actually enjoy outing multiple accounts.
I am indebted to you for the new information and agree with you, after reviewing graybird's posts, that he too is TheShen.
I would be interested to know why you think he is.

If you take a look at the comments on 9 May (currently on page 238) you will see that graybird had a series of *****y exchanges with Tommy393, whom I outed as TheShen yesterday.

The exchanges were similar in style to the ones we used to see between TheShen and p5tvr on PVR.
When I saw them, I recognised the similarity immediately.

On the same page is a comment from you to graybird: 'For the record Wolfson also had the same pattern and you appeared to over exaggerately hate each other.'

Only three of Wolfson's 187 posts appear under Member Info, so it's difficult for me to decide about him - EXCEPT for one thing: I long ago outed wolfsonshaz of advfn as TheShen.

graybird = Tommy383 = Wolfson = wolfsonshaz

Only one of them - Tommy383 - is posting at present.
Graybird stopped two years ago and Wolfson four years ago.
TheShen has opened so many accounts that he can hardly even manage them.

My last post, in reply to MadCrann, timed at 00:10, still appears under my Member Info, but no longer appears here.
In reply to Neocantus: yes, I intend to go ahead, but if you really think it's a sign of paranoia, you are free to dispute any of my analysis.
Here is my reply to MadCrann:

You need have no fear that I am going mad, MadCrann!
I thought it was obvious by now that I actually enjoy outing multiple accounts.
I am indebted to you for the new information and agree with you, after reviewing graybird's posts, that he too is TheShen.
I would be interested to know why you think he is.

If you take a look at the comments on 9 May (currently on page 238) you will see that graybird had a series of *****y exchanges with Tommy393, whom I outed as TheShen yesterday.

The exchanges were similar in style to the ones we used to see between TheShen and p5tvr on PVR.
When I saw them, I recognised the similarity immediately.

On the same page is a comment from you to graybird: 'For the record Wolfson also had the same pattern and you appeared to over exaggerately hate each other.'

Only three of Wolfson's 187 posts appear under Member Info, so it's difficult for me to decide about him - EXCEPT for one thing: I long ago outed wolfsonshaz of advfn as TheShen.

graybird = Tommy383 = Wolfson = wolfsonshaz

Only one of them - Tommy383 - is posting at present.
Graybird stopped two years ago and Wolfson four years ago.
TheShen has opened so many accounts that he can hardly even manage them.

In case you are not already aware of this, Greener191,

jtsouthern146 = theshen = theshenagain = theshenagainagain = p5tvr = longwait = bones698 = papillon = mrstevens = rbonnier = catswhiskas = catchingmice = leewain = wolfsonshaz = chimpeska = kakapo1 = hsfinch = goodbloke1 = luisfrg = dawallwork = venomousviper = big brother8 = chesty1 = bad robot = owenski = ngms27 = b33661 = duck_and_dive = flash crash = a catholic man = bigberty99 = jaforsadi = daler1966 = abeljeavons

Not all of those accounts are active.

Over here, he was known as TheShen (now banned) and TheShen = ThenShen = p5tvr = ranger4 = vampirekitten = sylviasmother = Sharetrader123 = Mamms = LuckCounts = StanleyPro = oilpimpdxb

Again, not all those accounts are active.

In case anyone thinks this doesn't matter, consider this: if ten people on a thread post negative comments on a company, an unwary reader might think there must be something wrong with the company's prospects because so many people can't all be wrong.

He would think entirely differently if he knew that all ten were the same person.

I can't answer your questions, Cyril, because, without there being any need to be falsely modest about it, my expertise lies in literary analysis, not discerning what is really going on behind the scenes.
I have been wrong too often in the past in having confidence in a company's management to express confidence any more.
Instead, I await developments.
I'm sometimes reminded of a member who shall remain nameless and who said in advance of a drill result, 'I BELIEVE [there are tonnes of oil down there].'
All they found was water.
I don't understand why, if the asset is as good as the previous management claimed, a new management should be required to market it.

Your point about muppets and Shakespearean quotes is of course valid.
I have never claimed, nor intended to be understood to be claiming, that the fact that two people use the same expression means they are necessarily the same person, any more than the fact that two people share a similar single characteristic of a fingerprint proves that they are the same person.
It is the accumulation of evidence that is decisive.
For example, ranger4 denies emphatically that he is TheShen.
Both ranger4 and TheShen have used the imagery of a dead duck as well as that of a dead horse being flogged.
Both ranger4 and TheShen have made a tasteless remark about LONGWAIT'S knickers being in a twist, and both have used the expression 'SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL', with the apostrophe missing, and also used the expression 'led up (or down) the garden path.'
And they just happened to be commenting on the same company and on the same forum.
You don't need to be an expert on probability theory to see that the chances of their being two different people are infinitesimally small.

Thanks for your reply, Cyril.

'You have no prospect of banning VK or her ghost writers;'
One of them has already been banned - TheShen, although he/she was allowed to pollute LSE with 700 posts, including a link to a picture of excrement, and another to a picture of an animal being strangled.

The characteristic spacing to which you refer has been used by p5tvr, as well as by vampirekitten and Tommy393.
It was p5tvr who together with TheShen once occupied 21 out of 23 successive posts - because they are one and the same person.

Eleven posters - TheShen, ranger4, vampirekitten, Tommy393, StanleyPro (on LSE), catchingmice, catswhiskas, , hsfinch, thedudie, terminator1, and kakapo1 (on advfn) - have used 'clowns' as an insult.

They are all one and the same person.

I have enough similar statistics to fill pages but it seems that the more evidence I produce, the more resistance I encounter.

You mean you didn't notice the similarities between their uses of punctuation?

Thanks for the correction VK
(25 Oct 2021 08:07)

I also would like to use the term Jokers which VK has used this sums them up perfectly .
(09 Sep 2021 06:32)

what is worrying is what VK mentioned earlier about Longreach PLC ,
(09 Sep 2021 05:17)

and like VK perfectly put it , these will drop to cash balance in the bank at approx 50p a share
(08 Sep 2021 23:59)

I've got to take my hat off to VK, he was right when the price was £2.50 he warned us there would be fund raise soon ... Malcy is definitely a paid shill
(Tommy393 on 08 Sep 2021 16:17)

And would it surprise you to learn that another of TheShen's aliases, bones698, predicted that JOG would fall to 60p?

'Tommy, you are starting to sound like VK.'

(Cyril2)

That could be because Tommy393 IS vampirekitten, aka TheShen.

It so happens that TheShen repeatedly accused me of being a 'paid shill' for PVR, and Tommy393 has accused Malcy of being a 'paid shill' for JOG.

That is not the only similarity in their writing styles, either.

There is also the fact that TheShen holds conversations with himself, sometimes running to 20 posts, and frequently expresses agreement with himself.

On 9 September, Tommy393 wrote:

'I also would like to use the term Jokers which VK has used this sums them up perfectly .'

That remark is typical of TheShen.

Two months ago, Tommy393 wrote, 'Happy to be a shareholder !'

TheShen is in the habit of changing his mind completely, as well as operating accounts on both forums, with some supporting the company while most excoriate it and ridicule anyone who invests in it.

You may recall that vampirekitten did exactly that to JOG, predicting that it would fall to 50p by the end of August, before suddenly and unexpectedly becoming an enthusiastic supporter of the company.

' if you're willing to hold, the potential growth is exponential!'

You mean the share price could go back up to 80p?

If I understand newtofo correctly, Tamboran's market capitalisation is almost double that of Falcon, but a reasonable valuation of Falcon's assets would be double the market capitalisation of Tamboran.

That suggests that Falcon's share price should be four times what it is now, which would make it nearly 32 p.

I must say that I'm still wondering what it would take to get the share price to that level, bearing in mind that it almost reached that level BEFORE the moratorium was lifted, when the possibility existed that the whole project would never even get off the ground.

'The chart was useful and nice to see if 100% successful with 138bcf supply we hit 731p!!!!'

Well, if the share price goes through 700p it will certainly leave people who sold at about 7p feeling rather regretful!

I think that chart, showing percentage chances of success and corresponding valuations, is misleading.
it gives a valuation of 73 p for a 10% chance of success and a valuation of 731p for 100% chance of success.

In reality, if the drill is unsuccessful the valuation is 0p, not 73p.
I don't think it has anything to do with whether it is '100% successful' .

It is just the way analysts ascribe value, but it doesn't relate to reality.

I stand corrected on that point, but the substance of what I said is still valid because FAR behaves just like an AIM stock.
These energy/mining penny shares' prices are largely determined by the behaviour of traders, not investors.
They are also determined partly by such companies' need to raise money, which frequently results in big corrections.
For both these reasons, big rises in share prices are invariably short-lived, all the more so because this fact has become so widely-known.
The upshot is that it is better to be patient and wait for such corrections than to chase the price.

The board are not responsible for the gyrations of the share price; the speculators are!

Here is a selection of comments which were posted after the price peaked and was on the way down:

topping up today
(deepbluediver at 31.5 p)

now and again I'll buy some more in low 30's and sell in late thirties early forties
(mikodx at 31.5p)

This should be above 40p by COP this week
(Sp28 at 35.25p)

Surprised this has'nt gone over 40p today
(ROCKLAWN At 35.25p)

I wouldn’t expect us to drop below 30p
(Danmcguigan)

Seems some good support at 33p
(Matt121)

Im expecting this to move towards 78p in the coming days/weeks/months
(iceman888 at 32p)

Sit and hold this will move soon.
Back to 40’s.
(FINTECH at 32p)

I can't remember now who it was who said that there seemed to be rock-solid support at 30p.

People have been buying the shares since the bubble burst and consequently are making paper losses.
The price went rapidly from 7p to 46p, and whenever a rise like that takes place on AIM, the price collapses.

Other recent examples are CHAR - down from 14p to about 5.1p (with a rights issue at 5.5p), AYM - down from 10p to 3.1p (with a placing at 6.6p), and FOG (down from 14p to 7p).

I'm not making any judgment about long-term prospects for the share price of any of these companies.
I'm just explaining how AIM works.

'The naysayers say the price is depressed and underperforming peers as we are too hedged so missing the upside.'

As I understand it, if you hedge and the price goes up strongly, you do not miss the upside at all.
You simply forfeit the price of the hedge.
It is an insurance against a fall in the price.