Member Info for LONGWAIT

Correction: 'fail' not 'fall'.

Good luck to you, Poods.

As said before, for the share price to reach 28p on expectation that the moratorium would be lifted, to stand still at 25p on the day it was lifted, and then fall to 5p, is not rational.

As Schopenhauer observed, man is not rational.

You may be right, but don't you think LOGP looks overpriced relative to PVR?

I know PVR shares are now being diluted further, but could not the same happens soon to LOGP?

I think it's good news because if the financing does not materialise, Alan Linn will be directly accountable; he won't be able to post an RNS, saying that he is waiting to hear from SpotOn, who have asked for an extension.

But I don't think he will fall, because too much is at stake.

Now that most people seem to be thinking about what could go right - rather than what could go wrong - could someone estimate what a new 1 TCF discovery would be worth to SOU?

And no answers please from any former directors of the company.

'It’s a tiny amount if you put stock in Providence’s calculations that an early development scheme at Barryroe – amounting to 48 million barrels of oil, or the equivalent of 16 per cent of the wider licence area – is valued at $560 million, based on an oil price of $60 per barrel.'

If I remember correctly, Linn didn't say that the value of the development would be $569 million in total; he said it would be worth $560 million to PVR.

'So Sound have spoken to ONHYM and Schlumberger'

(Ducati)

Could you please elaborate?

What is your source for this information?

I have just viewed it.

Wahab says he values SOU at 33p per share, which is far higher than SOU valued itself - 19p as I recall - when it thought it had done a deal to save the company.

He also said that he thinks there will be farminees to SOU's assets, including SM.

I don't know whether he is right, but I think what may have happened to SOU is actually not untypical for an AIM company, with the share price collapse convincing increasing numbers of investors that the company's assets are worthless and that they had been fooled by the management into believing they were valuable.

Ps and I are LT sufferers over on PVR too, where in spite of years of being told that the company would fail, it seems that it may be close to starting the process of monetising 346 mmboe, some nine years after starting the farm-out process.

It isn't over until it's over.

Well, DomDu, we don't know exactly what happened because - as some members have complained - the management never gives the details (presumably for reasons of confidentiality), but what makes me think you could be right is that Alan Linn seems to be planning to go ahead with the same consortium, with SpotOn's model, and with a similar Nordic Bond.

It looks like the same arrangement as conceived by SpotOn, but without SpotOn!

This is a short thank you to the administrators of LSE for removing TheShen's comments posted at 17:56 yesterday, in which he made extremely crude and insulting remarks about me.

I know, ps!

That did occur to me after I posted my last comment on the subject, but then I couldn't think of how to adjust for it.

If you're right that there could be further dilution, then that complicates the estimate still further.

The main thing is that the project gets off the ground, in which case the share price will be multiples of its current price anyway.

Linn said previously that it's the undiscovered oil below that particularly interests him.
Once the oil is flowing, someone might be interested in finding out what's below - especially if the oil price is approaching $100 by then.

The decision to terminate the agreement was not a bad reflection on the Barryroe field, “it is still a superb asset”, Mr Linn said.

“We are going to raise the money and do this ourselves and take control of our own destiny.”

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/providence-ends-barryroe-deal-with-norwegian-firm-40342318.html

Something doesn't 'add up,' ps!

Assuming PVR retains a 40 percent interest, the breakeven would have to be $30.83 to produce a profit share of $560 m.

Assuming a breakeven of $26, a profit of $560 m would imply a share of just 34.3 percent.

I was going to check what happened to Blinkx a while ago and would like to say thank you for updating me, Manyana, but I can't - because you see, I bought their shares several years ago, when they were in the 60s, because they were being hailed as a great company of the future, but got out - I think in the 30s - when the company was being rubbished.

You are of course right and as the old saying goes, 'He who laughs last laughs best.'

If you agree with me that even considering his own lamentably-low standards, TheShen's post timed at 17:56 is about as gratuitously offensive as any post could be, then will you please report it to the administrators, preferably with a request that he too be removed, so that this forum can finally be free of his nastiness and venom.

If you can't stop using lol and laughing at genuine investors, why don't you clear off to a comedy forum?

Two questions: if your requirement is that bonds issued by a company be of 'investment grade,' what are you doing commenting on a high-risk oil company?

Is it too much to ask that members compose the title of a thread without including 'lol' or do you imagine that this is a comedy forum?

People have invested large sums of money in this project and don't need that kind of derision on here.

This should be a serious discussion board, or it should not exist.

'you say there is no doubt BROE has resources ... but Bseye ... if there was no doubt oil players would have farmed in ... there is an issue obviously ...'

The issue appears to be funding, not the existence of the resources.

If there were serious doubts about the existence of the resources, then the consortium could never have been assembled.

Yes, ps.

Another question is why Linn is so confident of raising the capital when his partners in developing Barryroe are the very people whom SpotOn could not get to raise the same capital?

I think some here see this forum mainly as a vehicle for abusing others.

Estimates for the project envisage Barryroe is worth US$560mln (net present value) to Providence based on the recovery of some 48mln barrels of crude and assuming an oil price of around US$60 per barrel. For context, though, the 48mln barrels represents only 16% of the whole Barryroe oil resource.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947344/providence-resources-shares-fall-as-latest-farm-out-falls-by-wayside-947344.html

Even Alan Linn, in an interview, couldn't get the figure right.
It's 311m barrels plus gas equivalent to 35m.
Ps has pointed out that the gas is worth less.

It seems Ashcroft is assuming there are only 300 m barrels and the gas is not extracted.

It doesn't really matter; what matters is that Alan Linn's Plan B - the existence of which had been doubted by some posters - doesn't run into problems, such as a member of the consortium withdrawing due to other commitments.

Once the project is producing, the finance to develop the rest of the oil might appear, especially if oil prices are higher by then, and possibly also to drill deeper and find more oil.

Even with further dilution, the potential rewards are staggering.

We can only hope that the project goes ahead.

In spite of SpotOn's failure, they appear to have produced a usable model to achieve that.

I agree with comments questioning why this could not have been done years ago - when Petronas was considering bidding 600 million euros for PVR and Brent was about $98,