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I totally disagree with Looks. Debs are a wash with debt, Flybe are loss making with both companies being very poorly managed. The analysts say that McColl's is well managed.
McColl's has been steadily closing poorly performing and lose making stores which is idfficult for Debs to do as they have far far fewer and massive stores on long leases.
McColl's have struggled this year due to two reasons outside of their control and are temporary.
It seems all the supermarket shares are falling, just due to sentiment McColl's are falling twice as much.
Because the free cash tap is being turned off, any company with any negative news is being hit really hard, unlike a couple of years ago when negative news would be just shrugged off due to all the cash sloshing around.
Flybe already feeds Virgin Atlantic flights at Gatwick, Heathrow and Manchester, and delivers passengers to Air France-KLM on a range of routes to Paris and Amsterdam.
Immediate synergies with Virgin Atlantic are limited. Flybe operates small Bombardier and Embraer aircraft, while Virgin has only wide-bodied Airbus and Boeing jets.
But the Flybe network could be tuned to provide maximum connectivity with Virgin services, particularly at Manchester – which, unlike Heathrow and Gatwick, has plenty of scope for expansion.
The market capitalisation of Flybe has dropped to around £20m, and any bid is unlikely to be significantly higher as the buyer will also need to inject tens of millions of pounds to provide liquidity.
Never thought about Virgin and of course they will be allowed to keep Flybe's LHR slots where as BA would have had to give then up for free.
Virgin Atlantic, which is partly owned by Sir Richard, would be interested in the smaller carrier for two main reasons:
On top of providing a wider passenger traffic into Virgin Atlantic's long-haul network, a takeover of Flybe would allow Virgin Atlantic to gain access to the take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport reserved to domestic flight.
I see Aberforth still selling, now down to just 2.35%.
If Flybe is taken over I do not see a bidding war. What I see it that there will be an agreed offer, agreed by the Flybe management, major share holders and the offeree.
Meanwhile, Flybe’s domestic capacity in the UK is scheduled to drop by 5.3 percent this year to 8.9 million seats, giving a market share of 30.2 percent.
UK Domestic Capicity:
Easyjet - 32.62%
Flybe - 30.16%
BA - 24.22%
Ryanair - 04.13%
Loganair - 03.93%
Others - 04.94%
UK Domestic Frequency:
Flybe - 39.81%
Easyjet - 19.02%
BA - 16.76%
Loganair - 12.71%
Ryanair - 02.21%
Others - 09.58%
Flybe has operated from 33 airports in the UK during 2018, with Manchester, Birmingham and Southampton its top three by number of flight departures.
However, in terms of frequency share, the airline accounts for more than half the number of flights at ten of the 33 airports. At four of those - Anglesey, Southampton, Exeter and Belfast George Best City - it accounts for more than 80 percent of all departures.
Looking at capacity share, Flybe operates more than 90 percent of departure seats at two UK airports - Anglesey and Southampton. At its home base of Exeter, the carrier accounts for almost four-fifths of the total capacity on offer this year.
UK-based regional airline Flybe this month put itself up for sale as it battles “softening” growth in the European short-haul market and continued headwinds from higher fuel and currency costs.
Although the carrier made a profit of £7.4m in the six months to 30 September 2018, the figure was 54 percent lower than during the same period 12 months ago. In October 2018, the airline warned investors that full-year losses would be £22m.
With talks currently taking place with “a number of strategic operators” about a potential sale, Routesonline looks at Flybe’s network and its place in the market.
Capacity cuts
Flybe’s total capacity is set to drop by 4.9 percent to 14.1 million available seats in 2018, compared with 14.8 million a year ago. Capacity across its summer schedule this year was down by 6 percent, while capacity across its winter 2018/19 schedule is forecast to be 0.6 percent lower year-on-year. The total number of available seats on offer in November 2018 is the lowest since 2014.
The capacity cuts come as the airline continues its fleet reduction programme and ends non-profitable routes. Flybe is cutting its fleet size to an “optimum level” of 70 aircraft by early 2020, including five ATR aircraft fulfilling a SAS white label contract.
At 30 September 2018, the fleet size totalled 78 aircraft, compared to 80 six months earlier, following the return of one Bombardier Q400 turboprop and one Embraer E195. A further two end-of-lease Embraer E195 aircraft are due to be handed back over the next six months.
In May, Flybe concluded that the Bombardier Q400 is the “best core aircraft” for its current and future needs. However, it still has a heritage order for four Embraer E175s due in 2019. The carrier currently operates a fleet of 76 aircraft - 54 Bombardier Q400, six Embraer E195, 11 E175 and five ATR 72s.
Of its top ten routes by capacity in 2018, Flybe looks set to cut the total number of available seats on five of them, OAG Schedules Analyser flight schedules show, but combined capacity across the ten will rise by 2.2 percent due to the BHD - LCY rising by 45.1%. Its number one route by capacity, Belfast City - Manchester, will reduce by about 2.2 percent. The largest capacity drop in the top ten is on the Aberdeen - Manchester sector.
Flybe top 10 routes in order:
1. BHD-MAN
2. BHD-BHX
3. BHX - EDI
4. GCI - JER
5. AMS - BHX
6. BHX - GLA
7. MAN - SOU
8. ABZ - MAN
9. JER - SOU
10. BHD -LCY
Flybe's place in the market:
Flybe is set to retain its position as the largest provider of domestic services in the UK during 2018. According to OAG Schedules Analyser data, it will operate 121,361 domestic flights this year, which is more than easyJet and British Airways combined.
However, easyJet will overtake Flybe when it comes to domestic capacity. In 2018, easyJet is set to offer almost 9.7 million available departure seats, a rise of 4.8 percent on last year, to give it a market share of 32.6 percent
I understand 35 of Flybe's Q400s are sub-leased through Rebulic Airlines of the US with an average lease length of around just 8 months as the average lease length as at March 2015 was 4.6 years. At least 13 Q400s are owned out right by Flybe. I'm not sure weather their other 6 Q400s are leased or owned.
I agree about BA often being more expensive on code shares. To Spain I always book through the Iberia site with an Iberia flight number even if on a BA aircraft is cheaper, same when flying to Helsinki on Ba, I book on the Finnair site with a Finnair flight number.
Deutsche Bank was telling clients: "Medium-term, we continue to believe that easyJet will be one of the main beneficiaries of the consolidation process in Europe as weaker players exit the market, something which already appears to be accelerating again, in direct correlation with the higher oil price."
If easyjet take over Flybe I can see them replacing the Q400s with A319s and the routes that are unable to take A319s the Q400s replaced by franchised partner Stobart ATRs or Loganair SAAB2000s.
I see many on this tread are talking about a bidding war with a minimum take over price of 35p which I think is completely rediculous. If this was to be the case why have several instiutions vastly reduced their holdings in Flybe?
Budget airline giants EasyJet could be interested in purchasing Devon firm Flybe.
The Exeter-based airline has recently been put up for sale.
And it is believed EasyJet may be on the verge of buying the firm
A spokesman for the airline said: "We've always said that we will play a role in consolidation where it makes sense.
"We evaluate all opportunities as they arise and have no further comment to make.”
As far as I can see Flybe's largest Share holder Aberforth has sold nearly 11m of the shares it held reducing its holding by 35%.
Standlib has sold 32% and Standard Life have sold 83% of their respective holdings in Flybe.
Stobart were not willing to pay 50p a few months ago, that's why they pulled out because Flybe were asking too much. If Stobart can now pick up Flybe for 10p why would they want to pay any more.
Sunday - 30p, no way....at best can hope for 10p
EasyJet is to reveal annual profits surging by up to 42% on Tuesday with the low budget airline brushing off strike action and gaining from the troubles beset by rivals.
Numis forecasts easyJet to report a profit of £575 million against a profit of £408 million the previous year, on revenue of £5.05 billion.
Last month, the company submitted a revised bid in response to the new Italian government’s sales process for Alitalia, which was placed into special administration last year.
EasyJet is also considering making a bid for rival Flybe, which recently put itself up for sale.
I think if any airline bids for Flybe at best it will be at the current share price of around 10p.
Maybe £20m + debt.
Stobart currently operate 16 ATRs and 1 ERJ-190 with a further 2 on order.
Flybe do not operate to the Isle of Man as such as all Flybe and Aer Lingus flights are operated by Stobart on their ATR72 to Liverpool and Manchester on behalf of Flybe and Dublin for Aer Lingus. The Liverpool, Manchester Stobart ATRs and Loganair Saab on behalf of BA to London City over night on the Island.