Member Info for Locky82

absolute dog **** market. i’d love mcg to leave london,

Yeah great news really. Essentially buys out the short position and may exert a bit of pressure there. More importantly it shows some confidence in the business… well unless this is another attempt, like the dividend, to inflate the SP

Yup not worth much!

https://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article282515953.html

You can’t blame people for being negative. I got it at 127 just before last years results. The results were pretty positive with the reinstatement of the dividend and all numbers heading it the right direction, with exception to the impaired with lacked detail. It shot up to 145 that day (how I wish I cut and ran) but since then has steadily been hammered. Then there’s been the covid funding drying up (around £70m) which took it from 104 to 80 and then a profit warning (£20m short) taking it from 80 to 54, wiping £65m off the market cap, so personally I’m pretty worn down by it. But I keep topping up! I’m hoping for the best but expecting the worst here, in the form of another management eff up.

I’m down about 50% but continue to see it as a decent opportunity for my personal time horizon and actually now that bond is sorted and there’s nothing for a couple of years coming to maturity I think want them to grow the NA business, not sell it at the top of the cycle. The markets hardly reacted well. Also I’m I’m not rush for rates to drop and inflation to fall back. The higher rates are focusing on management on debt reduction while inflation is reducing the debt pile in real terms, while also squeezing incomes which will be good for business…. And allowing me to nab these on the cheap.I am an optimistic idiot at heart though

Come on then, what we saying… I’m going 6% down by 2 little burst at the finish to end 4.5% down 53.5p for the weekend

Who knows with this team, they reinstated a divi to cut it 6 months later.

Basically I want a seat at the table and now JP Morgan and M&G have gone I only need the company to buyback 600m shares… they’ve got the cash to do it lol

Are you talking about some specific contracts? I think they are the main player in Spain and the cost to entry will restrict competition competing for any meaningful contracts. Same with Brum. US I imagine is a lot more competitive.

Fear has definitely kicked in here, quite incredible really. Is the board still sitting on £300m in cash? At what point should they gamble and start mopping up these shares with that cash? If it’s going down go out with a bang not with £300m in the bank to bail out the cosmens

I’m torn here. I don’t know whether to cut my losses and run or double down. I worry about the leadership team, I had faith but they’ve exposed themselves by reinstating the dividend only to cut it within a year and now looking to dispose of the most appealing section of the business at the top of the rate cycle. The hard work is done, time is on their side with the bond in place so just sit tight and see it through. I really don’t understand the timing unless there’s genuine concerns of a debt spiral.. I also don’t trust this team to get find higher reinvestment opportunities moving forward. But this is exactly the type of business I want in my portfolio long term. UK Government already subsidising bus travel and ESP Gov subsidising coach, and I can only see this increasing.

We will. This share doesn’t rally. This share is utter dross. Avoid at all costs. I’m going to go down with the ship but don’t make the same mistake I have!

Thanks monkeyman, insightful stuff

I thought they had managed to return to profit, pay down debt and start buybacks by selling up and exiting NA!?

What has gone so wrong that they should go? What should they do differently?

Why is everyone so negative, these are the opportunities you’re supposed to wait for as investors. So what you might have gone a bit early but it won’t matter in the long run.

The google translation isn’t very clear. Sounds like it could be something in an advanced stage though. Id love it to be true. Reinforcing that the board see the company over the medium/longer term in a much better place than the market is currently pricing it.

I am dreaming! I’m dreaming of securing my financial freedom and I’m certainly not wishing away a fantastic buying opportunity. The longer the better.

Nope, I’m not questioning my judgement. Tbh if I was investing other peoples money atm would I put/keep it in a bus company that’s leveraged to the hilt, probably not. If it goes wrong I imagine your career in finance would be finished. Far easier to play it safe. Ultimately I’m here for the risk, I think the company will actually sail through the next few of years with no real issues (how ever I understand it may not) and inflation will have worked it’s magic on the company’s top line, debt… and share price!

I cynically think it’s on the rise as they’re maybe an expectation that tomorrow will bring plenty of buys from divi reinvestment, making a few extra quid for the seller. Probably wrong but I won’t be automatically reinvesting tomorrow.

I’m not sure we’re you’ve got 2.1b. I think it’s 1.369b, but happy to be corrected. I think the main issue could be maintaining their investment grade rating re the upcoming bond, if they become junk then 10% would be best case not worst. I’m a complete amateur though so probably best to ignore everything I say.

Covenant net debt reduced buy 40m£. Net debt increased from 1167.5m to 1168.9m.

The net debt actually increased by £1m.