RE: Hold for Gold16 Jun 2023 21:47
You do talk some rubbish QD. Trains are used by people with money and people that use buses are so poor they will opt to walk or ride. I would say I kind of agree with your observation (we may be wrong because I’ve done no research and it would be ridiculous to assume you have) but I certainly reach a different conclusion. I think trains are/will suffer as the average train commuter has probably switched to hybrid working, cutting train use. I do associate buses with the elderly, students and lower paid workers, who aren't going to ‘benefit’ from hybrid working.
A quick break down of what you a getting at decade lows, because of rising rates and the city is desperate attempt to break it up for a quick buck. As QD demonstrates there is always too much attention paid to UK coaches… probably one reason to change the name, to stop the domestic investor looking down their nose at it.
NXWM operate an 80% bus monopoly in the West Midlands where Im doubtful usage is likely to recede any time soon, with people opting to walk to save £2 a journey.
Durham School Services, the second largest student transport operator in the States, they’re picking up slighter fewer contracts than expected but nothing to say it’s fading. US school boards are unlikely to ask their students to walk/ride in and I think its a safe assumption that US states will not cut funding and add millions of car journeys, so another solid and necessary business. (It’s also worth mentioning that first sold first student, roughly twice the size, for $3.5b and that’s the only reason the balance sheets look good over there, where do you think they’ve found the money for buybacks)
You have Alsa which is another monopoly, operating a very successful coach network across Spain as well as bus services across Spain, Morocco and Portugal.
You have German train which couldn’t really have gone any better and must have enhanced the brands reputation in that region.
And of course UK coaches. They seem to be doing well off the back of train strikes and people tightening belts where possible.
All in all a globally diverse company providing essential services. On paper this is remains safe and reliable investment with a potentially huge upside.
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