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Having been critical of Colin in the past I have only myself to blame for this latest disappointment but honestly believed it would be different this time. I never thought though that hope could be shattered as badly as this. I was getting some stick for suggesting we would be lucky to see 10p... if only.
single pit or is it the pits
The interview guides us to expecting Zambia acquisitions. The previous Zambia acquisitions have not added shareholder value so the market probably assumes the FB income will be used to that effect.
The market is reacting badly to the "We have made a decision to mine but well actually no we haven't". This is being seen as a Colin Bird classic can kicking due to him having no plan of what is now possible with Bushranger. He alludes to not being sure what to do in the interview.
ANY jam today, not maybe some tomorrow.
It looks like you ar4e not alone with those sentiments.
A4444... yes its not as if we reached 2mT and then had the option of "2mT reached" or "Decision to Mine" but chose the decsion to mine and this is the reason why. We had no option because the resource did not come up to expectations. Several times in interviews Colin stated that the 2mT or decision to mine were one and the same thing.
XTR acquired Bushranger for around £1m a couple of years ago which banked a 0.3MT CuEq resource for shareholders. Relative to today's MktCap that resource is basically worthless. Its never been the case that enlarging the resource by drilling will add value on a simple sliding scale. It will still be valueless if economics decide that having been proved to be larger it is still uneconomic. Today's approx 1mT could well be valueless. Its not that 2mT would be 20p so therefore 1mT must be 10p. Quite how Colin spins what we have when the dust settles will be interesting. Unless a buyer is willing to pay something (remember the original resource was basically valueless) I don't see how anything close to resembling some of values hoped for will materialise. A quick "tie a bow on it" sale was the implied route to deliver shareholder value and avoid the "death by a thousand drills". Maybe Colin has it all in hand to deliver shareholder value... but previous track record suggests otherwise. It was a good shout to gamble on trusting Colin regarding Bushranger but I am not surprised by what has materialised. I see limited downside from this lowly SP level but struggling now to see my 10p SP prediction any time soon.
Confirms my 10p prediction... just need it doing sooner rather than later or shareholder value will erode with chasing a few more tons.
Well I was dropping hints lol
If a sale is achievable, any price achieved won't have any regard for support shown. I think you would be surprised at the number of "large" holders btw.
My guess is that Colin hasn't been able to get any potential buyer to want to pay anything like what he was hoping for. Its not in Colin's nature to share the warts and all (despite him saying would). I really cant see us getting much more than around 10p... and thats if a buyer can be persuaded. Its not the duty of any buyer to solve the world's copper shortage problem so their first duty is to their own shareholders.
This feels a bit like the waiting around we were doing back in November 2020. A couple of months later and 8p+ appeared as if out of nowhere. Looking forward now to all the "whoosh/choo choo/wouldn't want to be out of this/etc" posts !
It does feel like sentiment is improving. 3x the SP from here will do nicely.
I don't believe Kjeld Thygesen exclusively applies his skill sets to XTR. He serves on other boards I believe? Is he a passive appointment to aid credibility or is he an active appointment?
Stevemocal... good post. I agree that 10p would be a steal (if we haven't been deceived) which leads to me having to ask what have we missed that makes the current 3p unattractive to buyers ?
Stevemocal... I wouldn't be disappointed with 10p... that's my point I suppose. Yes, it is true that 20-25p as hinted at was and is a more desirable outcome... but realism guides me to modify that target. TITK are for example some who benefitted by the created 9p spike and other opportunities to forward sell. The SP would not be treading water at 3p if a 20p outcome was around the corner (unless a date for a deal announcement has been leaked and it is some way off yet). Nothing surprises me in ColinWorld so your optimism may well be justified in which case all good. Until evidence is presented (which in itself should rerate the SP) I remain cautiously hopeful of 10p.
What is your outcome hope btw ?
I have woken up from the dream of 20p.... TITK would not be holding the SP at 3p if that dream was alive IMHO. 10p is my new real world target but accept that even that may be unachievable if Colin has in fact been deliberately deceptive.
Arguably the BR project is much higher profile than historic projects/deals that have failed to deliver. Surely if the agenda here was to ramp this very hard with no likelihood of delivering shareholder value, then that would be Colin's reputation trashed? Maybe he sees something like AFP to be his main bet such that XTR is not as important to him as it is to XTR shareholders? He only needs one from his stable to hit the jackpot which could minimise disappointments elsewhere.
Does he think like this ? Possibly with smaller projects/deals... but I hope that BR is too high a profile for that to be the case.
It seems the next significant too good to miss once in a lifetime opportunity is commonplace in Colin World lol