Member Info for LittleWing

whoosh

We can deduce from that either,
1 Gold is down,
2 It is still raining or
3 FB is still not up and running.
:-)

Hi JDAU... I would say it depends on how quickly that CAPEX can be paid off.

It is uncertain if it will deliver any pay packet down the line. That is the concern. Colin implied it was nailed on to deliver. It has now joined one of many projects worldwide that in all probability may not see a return for shareholders as is the case for the vast majority of exploration projects. we know AIM exploration is risky. Colin should not have time and time again implied BR was different.

$8000 - $11000 was used. The shells had the "potential" to be cash flow positive depending on rate, cutoff and copper price. Since it was stated that the result depends on copper price, I deduce that at least the lower value of copper price (8000) was not one of the potential cash flow positive shells. This is without CAPEX being considered. So what value of copper price can we deduce is needed ? Maybe the next value of 9000 is good (withoutCAPEX) ? Is it reasonable that 10,000 may just be viable ?
Colin stressing how the copper shortage is key to his thinking (and how that will drive up price) makes me think we are going to be needing copper price at around 10,000 for the project to be worthwhile to someone. I dont think Colin will be tying on the bow anytime soon.

MaBaker... "Recent podcast from Colin ststes current model by Optimum already producing cash."
Before the CAPEX costs are included. And of the 16 pit shells studied not all were cash flow positive even then depending on copper price. Some shells had the potential to be cash flow positive.
The expected original report was supposed to be an economic pit study (hopefully showing a good positive NPV). Why do you think the goal posts were moved so that it became an interim report excluding CAPEX and not showing NPV ?
You do know that "cash flow positive" is NOT the same as profitable and viable right ?

MaBaker, not trying to rile you up at all. Until we know if BR is viable we cannot say that BR has delivered anything. We don't know if BR is viable once CAPEX is included. We hope it will be, but we just don't know. We also don't know what copper price is needed to make it viable.
So I just dont understand what BR has delivered for shareholders despite your claim that it has delivered 1.3mT and an open pit to recover that resource over 9 years at a depth of 250m. For shareholder value to be realised, something more than just hope has to be attainable.

MaBaker... How has BR delivered ? Also define what you see as Manica having delivered so far ? (not what you hope will happen).

MaBaker... the fact that Colin is NOT shouting from the roof tops means we don't know if the revenues are what we were guided to believe. We want the revenues to be where we would all like but we cannot know ! Colin's track record of his guidance being removed from what actually occurs means we may not get what you are convinced we are going to get.
The company has NOT delivered on performance, unless you feel the Kalengwa, Eureka and MozGold deals were an investors dream ??? We all want the company to deliver on performance but until we have clarity on the revenues going forward that remains a hope rather the fact that you seem convinced of.

MaBaker... The SP needs supporting simply because shareholder value is realised by a rising MktCap (and corresponding SP). It would be hoped that a rising MKtCap would go hand in hand with rising revenues at a rate given by Colin's guidance previously. The falling SP over recent months does not provide the idea that the hoped for revenues will be delivered any time soon. If all is well with the acquired projects that were supposed to lead to a steadily rising MktCap then it is the duty of Colin to provide that guidance. There is the assumption in the market that some of those projects are worthless. If this is a wrong assumption then clarity should be given. There is no certainty that BR can be sold to the benefit of shareholders (although many were drawn in by that hope) leaving a rising MktCap as the most likely route to realising shareholder value. Thats why the SP should be supported.

When the SP needs supporting it makes no sense that FB reporting was moved to 6 monthly. My guess is the production is short of what Colin told us.

Well it looks like Colin was taken for a ride with the MozGold diamond miners, Kalengwa and Eureka so it wouldnt surprise me if things are not what we were led to believe. At the end of the day it is shareholders who have taken the hit though.

Either we have intentionally been taken for a ride or Colin has been incompetent. The SP says everything.

I agree. We are possibly now paying for the damage done by previously talking up the projects/deals that have failed to deliver.

A4444... the anomaly could be due to the sentiment that the Manica revenue could be poured into something that ultimately still would not deliver for shareholders. The SP could possibly even be higher if BR was put in the same drawer as Kalengwa and Eureka. The feeling is that BR will be a drain on funds not returning anything ?

My suspicions are not just due to his BR guidance over the 2/3 years but also the other instances which have been well discussed on here.

steve... yes I used the wrong term. I agree it doesn't confirm anything but just increases my suspicions that he is intentionally misguiding.

"It has to be viewed as part of an NPV calculation to be any use to us"
I was just trying to get a feel for if we actually have anything that will deliver something for shareholders at BR. I was hoping that the promised study on what we have so far would be showing that the project is a viable sell on. Colin has avoided giving us that confidence. OK I get that we cant know the exact costs unless all the pieces are in place but no project ever has that. Is it viable to sell on or not and what sort of return are we looking at ? Colin avoiding giving anything helpful to shareholders over what he knows is important to us is poor. His inability to give meaningful guidance confirms my conclusion that his guidance is intentionally vague so he doesn't have to be seen as having failed his shareholders.
Unless he can show that BR is still a viable sell on that will benefit shareholders with ALL costs considered, then it looks like it is not. Why would he avoid giving good news ? My head probably knows even though my heart still looks for ways of explaining his misguidance.

What would be the cost of that initial $1Billion over the 25 years ? Any money people know ?

Colin several times in interviews stated that he was not worried about the grades. Well he damn well should have been.