Member Info for LithBoy

DrPineapple, yes it will be very interesting to see if KOD can get better terms from JV than FFX. BA seems like a very good negotiator and as he put it won't take low ball offers. It does feel like we are holding some strong cards at the moment: enough known Li to put us in the top 15 producers with more potentially available that would see us possibly breaking into the top 10. All to play for now and judging by how other exploration companies have successfully attracted JVs and buyers it is hopefully just a mater of time now. A buy out seems unlikely as not BA's style plus with a JV they can get on with building the mine while KOD carry on exploring the other 7 concessions plus pricing up the 200km2 Bouguni West site. I certainly feel very comfortable investing here!

They are back of the fag pack calculations admittedly but I wanted to get a feel for where KOD could go compared to the rest of the Li market. All encouraging stuff so I thought worth sharing. IMO gives a flavour of what we could be sitting on. I very much doubt our Market Cap will be at £46 mil for much longer. With any luck we'll avoid share dilution and the SP will move in line!

Oh who's been banned this time? It's not good old Fart Jet is it?

I've done a bit of a comparison between our neighbours next door FFX with the Gangfeng JV.

They have an annual estimate of producing 436,000 tons of Li for 23 years. So that's about a 10Mt reserve. We are looking to output 220,000 tons for 8.5 years. So that's a 1.94 Mt reserve.

FFX has a current market cap in £ of 590 mln, ours is 46 mln or there abouts. On our current resource value we're x5 smaller. So a market cap of around £118 mln is something we could have.

FFX has a SP of 0.85 aud or there abouts; no need for converting the SP as it is just for comparison. Their target price after production could be around 3.75 aud so 3.94 x higher than today. If we put our market cap to £118 our SP would be about 0.76p (strangely enough what Fidelity thought it's fair value was a few months ago). Now times this by 3.94 to give an idea of us at production on the current resource that puts us comfortably in the 2p - 3p range.

FFX and KOD both have gold but it is the Li for both where the real value is.

One major part of KOD though is our current resource is on a 97.2 km² plot of land. We have Bougouni West that's closer to FFX that's 200 km² plus 7 other land plots to explore. This all totals over 800 km² which, if and let's face it most likely, there is more Li there this could put us into the top 10 Li producers in the world.

Take a look at Lithium Americas Corp, another Gangfen JV currently $28.54 with a five year target of $115.

The age of Li is coming fast. I see no reason why KOD's market cap after we've adding another 10Mt of Li or so, which doesn't sound at all unreasonable, could well break into the 1bn if not more market cap region. Let's hope BA keeps share dilution - given he's in it with us at 0.31p - to an absolute minimum and we see the true value of KOD unfold over these coming years.

Any feedback or thought is appreciated. Lith Boy.

EVR the multi billion suspended yesterday, being linked to Russian tank production, Abramovich being targeted, 10 directors resigned today. Just goes to show how quick things can change on the LSE no matter how big you are. Glad I stuck with our little KOD fish here. Does anyone know how the political situation in Mali is now? Seems to have quieted down so no news is good news I guess!

Thanks Ghoti, no money is truly clean just some is a lot cleaner than others. I read the EVR board and just felt horrified how the talk was how the Ukrainian crisis will unfold to best suit the investors. Dress it up as you like but that was the short and curlys of it, so I choose to speak out this time, maybe one thought twice so worth a try. Our government may move very quickly and fast on it though, so one to stay well away from.

This does impact KOD and Li though, the move to renewables, cleaner energy (no energy is truly clean just some much cleaner than others). The UK will be talking about moving away from oil and gas even more now. I do energy performance certificates of properties, if you are going solar and if you haven't looked at it already look at heat source pumps via the government's RHI scheme. Cheers and good luck!

Evraz looks pretty Russian to me its billionaire CEO from Russia. I'll stick with KOD and Mali, despite its issues Mali is trying to move forward in the world and I'm happy to support them please sleep well at night with my investment. You know it anyway but the plug could be pulled on Evraz very quickly, it's in the hands of the politicians now and I certainly wouldn't want to be invested there!

EVRAZ plc is a British multinational vertically integrated steel manufacturing and mining company with headquarters in London, England. It has operations mainly in Russia, but also in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Italy, Czech Republic, the United States, Canada and South Africa. Wikipedia
Stock price: EVR (LON) 87.38 GBX +9.42 (+12.08%)
9 Mar, 09:12 GMT - Disclaimer
CEO: Aleksandr Frolov (18 Jan 2007–)
Founder: Alexander Abramov
Founded: 1992, Moscow, Russia
Headquarters: London

Comparing Mali to Russia really? Mali, one of the poorest nations in the world, has been war torn but it is now trying to get itself back on its feet. There is an interim government but they are looking to move towards a democracy. There have been some bumps but they are working with their nieghbours. Mali is incredibly poor but has a great natural resource much needed in the fight against global warming. Mali has not invaded one of its neighbours and is not a powerful nation bullying a smaller nation.

Evraz is a Russian based company so putting pressure on such a company instead of launching a military attack against Russia makes good sense. I leave you all too it, your choice but I feel very uncomfortable investing in somewhere like Evraz given the atrocities going on in Ukraine. DYOR but I say sell out here find other investments else where!

Sorry but I'll stick to my sentiment, sell out here, apply pressure on Putin. Pressure on Russian working class families is better than bombs on them. Do you get that, do you really get that? The alternative to financial pressure is going to war. Bombs on them, bombs on us and don't think this is out of the question. History says otherwise. Continue the financial pressure, help those in Ukraine who are suffering don't profit from their blood.

Sell out here, just sell out and find opportunities else where. Peace!

I get what you are saying but something just feels wrong about investing in Russain based companies when applying pressure on the like to get them to pull out feels right. Better that than WWIII. No one wants that, what else can we do at the moment? Sorry but I'll stick to my guns on this one.

Anyhow, to the conversation here. The directors are invested at around 0.32p on a target reward basis so I doubt the place below this to their own detriment. BA strikes me as far too canny. GLA here.

I've not posted on here in ages but still thoroughly believe in KOD, no issues with a few delays Rome wasn't built in a day.

I have however just made myself rather unpopular on the Evraz board. It just makes me sick that many are doing what they can to put financial pressure on Russia yet others are trying to profit from it! Anyhow, if you don't want to feel sick to the core don't read the Evraz board as it is a pretty sick place!

No elections for six months by the looks of things but the report does indicate stability has improved. Well as long as Gangfeng and the like are happy investing in mines in the region, I'll trust their due diligence for now. Mali does have a layer of risk though, no doubt about it. However, if the mine gets built and starts producing steadily we should see a lot of profit here!

Still the 3p to 4p range plus I suspect there will be a lot of positive sentiment around Lithium shares in the next couple of years. If Mali's elections into a democracy go well in Feb this will help also!

Mine not mone, excuse the typo. :)

North Mali has the trouble but South where our mone is relatively stable. FFX breaking the 1bln is very significant for us. We have, as has been said, additional land plus the 80% in the other Li reserve we acquired last year. If KOD breaks 1bln mc eventually I take it with my fag packet maths that's x20 where we are today. So, SP at 6.6p about where I've always had in mind to sell. Good days ahead it could be!

Geography also plays a big part in this. North Mali is where the trouble is in the Sahara region. South Mali where our mine is located in the mining region is relatively peaceful. The North and South are almost like to different countries; worth keeping in mind.

Mining SPs can be like this, and the market is likely to be holding off until we find out the finance package. Once we know this and I feel BA wants the best long term deal for investors as he is one too, we should see a gradual move North. When production starts to close in that's when we are most likely to start spiking. This is a long game and one, personally, that suits my temperament. Good luck all!

Exactly and let's not forget the Cobalt which if you look on the London Metal Exchange is now listed in their EV section. HZM is still a cracking investment and the ii's know this. They'll wait until the dust settles on the raise and then start making their moves I suspect!

So add in Canada and we are looking around a £328 mc equivalent. We have x4 the resource and they have about 60% of our mc. So we are looking at say x2.34 there mc. So taking out Canada that would give our mc x1.7 what it is at 6p, around 10p. Remember though we are looking at pre dfs for our friends with the other mine. So around 10p should be at least where we are now if it wasn't for the current transition period. Let's see where it goes as construction progresses.

The question is though, what will our market cap look like after the dilution? I'll do a recalc after the 22nd to account for this.

Centaurus have 80.6Mt grading 0.91% with a market cap of $400 mil AUD so equivalent to about £200 mil. We have Araguaia 119 Mt at 1.27% plus Vermelho 145 Mt at 1.05%. So our resource is x4 larger. If you take account of HZM in Canada which has a market cap of £104mil that totals around us £200 mil mc but our resourse is at least x4 bigger. So that puts the SP on the LSE at around 23.4p. Centaurus is only at the definite feasibility study phase so, I'd of said HZM could easily pass 23.4p as we approach production. I have to say in my opinion all this talk of 15p max at production just doesn't tally to the size of the resource. The Financial Times analyst had us at around 29p come the end of the year. Personally I'm unconcerned by the current SP and just see it as a transition phase plus AIM shenanigans. I'm happy now to sit back and let the guys at HZM do what they do best and that is run a company well in my opinion.