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Charlie Nunn - CEO Lloyds, expects the SC decision to be given in the 'Summer / Q3 of this year'. Could be sooner, upto the SC.

Analysts at Jefferies said their view was that "the government's point had already been made".

"From a legal perspective, it is arguably more important that the FCA has been granted permission," they added, saying the City regulator's position "could prove instrumental in preventing accessorial liability on the lenders".

The Supreme Court said that permission is only granted where the intervention will add, "significant assistance over and above the assistance it can expect to receive from the parties", with the Jefferies analysts suggesting that the judges may have decided any legal points would be raised in the normal course of the hearing.

The court's ruling on accessorial liability in consumer duty cases may hinge on whether lenders were aware of a fiduciary duty before assessing dishonesty by public standards, the analysts added.

Given the FCA's stance that its rules were not based on such a duty, it may be difficult to establish that lenders dishonestly assisted in a breach they did not recognise.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1066440/supreme-court-dismissal-of-reeves-motor-finance-intervention-good-news-for-banks-1066440.html

I can see the frustrations, bitterness and negative bias attached to holding a sinking share for 20 years - it would be the same emotion attached to holding CBG at £15 from 2021, that would not be a comfortable place to be right now. The reality is that most of the contributors on this forum are holders at the £2.xx level, a much more comfortable view point and reason to be optimistic. These forums will always provide both ends of the spectrum of emotion, just like the market in general.

morning folks,

yesterdays developments presented no material change to this business or the potential outcome of the sc case. if you were buying into cbg because it is a rock solid company currently traded at a fraction of its fair book value, with 150 years of business under its belt, delivering consistent profit and increasing reward to its shareholders, and of course with a sensible medium term view on your return, then this share at the price it is today will most likely reward you incredibly well.

if you are operating with a short term view, this together with the rest of the market, is a risky buy.

the volatile swings and the subsequent knee-jerk reactions of the little guys only serve as the greatest tool for the transference of wealth that the stock market has in its ****nal. not to get clichéd, but buffetts quotes do resonate at times;

"the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

''be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.”

I think the most important take-away from the efforts of the Treasury to intervene, is that it very clearly highlights their wishes and intentions for the outcome. As suggested, the FCA will be providing the same arguments to the court, and if the government really do not like the way the case goes, it does have the tools to ultimately change the course after-the-fact.

Another interesting twist in the saga - the decision of the court, whatever that may be, will be the same.

Agreed - its also worth noting that the 'Consumer Voice' application was denied.

300k shares went through on that monumentous dip - possibly a short closing down, or a substantial long buying in

An effective push down today. A large sell order trying to fill? Effort to keep out of the FTSE250? All of the above perhaps. Optimistic the CBAM sale will be confirmed prior to the March 4th reshuffle, which should provide the next catalyst for re-entry.

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/13/reeves-intervention-cuts-estimated-car-finance-payouts/

Is this to be read as £165m provision for the current financial year, with more in 2026 / 2027 etc. Or is this CBG total estimation of its costs toward settling the matter in full?

Lloyds Banking Group: Supreme Court motor finance decision will be biggest for sector since PPI

Published: 13:13 06 Feb 2025 GMT

Supreme Court

The Supreme Court ruling is expected in April

For UK banks, the upcoming Supreme Court hearing in April could have the most significant implications since the PPI scandal over a decade ago, analysts at Jefferies reckon, with Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY)set to be a potential major beneficiary.

The case relates to claims from car finance borrowers seeking redress over undisclosed commissions paid to motor broker-dealers.

A previous Court of Appeal ruling found that borrowers could be entitled to compensation if commissions were undisclosed, based on the premise that dealers owed a fiduciary duty to borrowers.

However, the Jefferies analysts said: "We increasingly think this may go the [banking] sector's way."

They believe the Supreme Court may rule in favour of lenders by questioning the assumption of accessory liability in cases of partial disclosure, noting that the FCA has stated its rules were "not predicated on there being a fiduciary duty in generality".

The Supreme Court may take a different approach, they suggest, where it questions whether lenders can be held liable for merely making commission payments.

"For a third party to be held liable, it must have assisted dishonestly in the view of ordinary decent people," the Jefferies team said, citing precedent from the Supreme Court’s Ivey ruling.

"It could therefore be argued that it was impossible for lenders to dishonestly assist in the breach of fiduciary duty that neither it nor the lead regulator knew existed. It is a subtle but powerful distinction."

Three potential outcomes were outlined by the analysts, with the most severe scenario – broad liability across the motor finance market – potentially resulting in a £25 billion cost to the industry. They now see the probability of this as "below 50%".

A more likely outcome, in their view, is that the Supreme Court does not infer general liability, limiting FCA redress to specific cases, which would reduce potential costs to £10-15 billion.

Lloyds is estimated to face a £2-4 billion impact, the analysts calculate, which is significantly lower than the £6 billion market value decline the stock has seen since October.

The firm believes this dynamic could allow Lloyds shares to trade at least in line with NatWest’s price-to-tangible net asset value, implying a potential total shareholder return of over 50% in two years.

Given that there are FTSE250 constituents with market caps of £350m, CBG is already in the running for re-entry is it not?

Have been following this board for several months - some interesting conversation, points and insight.

I am interested to hear thoughts on the CBAM sale. In laymans terms, why would Oaktree consider this to be a good buy at circa £200m, for what is a minor fraction of the larger CBG, when they could simply take a majority position in the Group as a whole for the same money? The deal was agreed prior to the unexpected October CoA ruling, and clearly been hammered out in the months prior to this. A lot has changed in the market cap since this point.