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For what its worth - CBG should be included in both the All Share and the 250 from Monday, so index volume being picked up from elsewhere.

Yes FTSE 250 re-entry on Monday.

Tin foil hat stuff - I can’t help but feel the excessive and unprovoked push down early this week is some sort of MM play with an eye on large buying for the indexes a couple of days later.

I don’t profess to understand the intricate ways they operate, but this just looks like a cheap way in for the big boys.

Shore + RBC post results. Deutsche 13/02/25. The results really did not change anything that wasn't already known, the uncertainty which has been present for months has just allowed a fearful reaction.

Deutsche target = £6

Shore Capital = £4.50

Worth noting that RBC are also the outlier estimate often used for worst case scenario costs, and they still see value at £3.40 in the short term. Interesting.

Stockpickfree - its a zoom out moment in my opinion, the SP has already been really hammered, its at a 30 year low and operating at fundamental levels off the charts to its historics its impossible to ignore.

The uncertainty in this case, is worse than bad news imo.

Either way, buy it and forget about it, check in 2027 and i’d imagine we will be on the right side of it, its just a question of by 5% or 300%.

The reality is that its pretty much impossible to consistently and correctly predict price movements with a short term view, and to gain what 20% if you are lucky, or lose the 20% when you misread and have to enter again on up-market, if you are looking at a long term hold option.

When you are working with bigger capital it often falls outside of ISA wrappers, so you are also booking capital gains tax on every profitable sell which goes through which is the effectively reducing your re-entry power the next time round, if you do happen to time it right.

Its horse for courses - plenty guys are happy dropping in and out on a daily basis for margin. Others rather lump in big bucks at rock bottom prices and just let time do its work.

To answer a few comments this morning;

'loaners shunning CBG' - I will assume you mean borrowers, and no this is not happening. Understand the dynamics of their business model - they have very long established relationships with brokers who offer finance to the consumer in this instance. Trust me, the consumer is not concerned who is lending them the money, aslong as it comes from somewhere. Appetite for business was also confirmed as remaining at the same level prior to these issues in their update yesterday. SME and larger business also logicially look past these headline grabbing issues, they will work with the guys who provide the product and service they need - which CBG has for decades.

- I have held Close savings accounts for atleast 4 years. They have often provided rates at the top of the table. Make of it what you will, but its not a new tact they have employed because of this issue.

- Management buys - I don't suspect you are going to see any. They are likely under a freeze due to being privy to some level of insider knowledge on on-going legal matters and conversations with the FCA. If you want to look to others for confidence in buying behaviour, look to the Institutions who hold over 75% of CBG stock, and have been actively raising their positions in the past few months (Jupiter + Fidelity).

All the best.

SG2025 - I hear your points.

As you say, the reality is that me, you, the judges, the FCA, we don't know where its going just yet. With the solid underlying business and plentyful options at their disposal, the chances are strong over the medium term that CBG will prosper. Thats the only half-educated conclusion I can draw for a buy and hold.

Sg2025 - yes thats correct, but my point is what is it that could potentially put their capital ratio under pressure? It is any potential compensation. Which the FCA will control in an orderly fashion. Lets remember that any potential redress scheme will be attached a sensible time-line for settlement, its not going to be everyone needs a refund by a week on Tuesday.

Lets all just hope for a reasonable and rational outcome on all aspects.

SG2025;

- Current FCA delay on dealing with claims until end of 2025, possibly will be extended.

- FCA consultation on any potential redress scheme will be mindful to allow the firms time to make necessary provisions.

- From several CBG communications, the securitisation works have already been done.

As pointed out, the quickest way for CBG to raise capital further than the £400m they have already been building for 12 months is to simply allow their very considerable loan book to unwind organically.

Knot - the combination of an internet message board and the adrenaline fueled ride of chasing money does tend to bring peoples idiotic sides out.

All the best.

Good old irrational markets. Vanquis had a similar run in last week at their results, dropped 20% on the day, recovered to positive now.

Nothing has changed in this - all of this info was available to the market weeks ago. The usual practice of the SP being bullyed around to insight the panic in the little guys, hit stop losses, transfer positions to the big boys.

Theres no surprises in those results. As previously stated, they broadly provided all of that info over a month ago barring some specifics.

There will not be any sincere movements to the price until the SC / FCA updates so it is what is in the interim.

£3.50+ feels like a sensible price range for going into April. Increased support from the index rebalance this week and positive sentiment around major shareholder moves.

350k shares bought in two tranches just after the RNS. Money brings money.

RNS - Fidelity upping their stake late last week.

They broadly told the market the state of play with their half year results a month ago. Continued strong group profit expected in the region of £75m for the 6 months. Then taking into account the provision, which is more than covered by the retained dividend / CBAM cash.

The business is performing as it always has, profitably. Once this over-hanging doubt is made evident, the market can move on.

Knot - appreciate the replies.

So as far as your own analysis goes for the verdict, it will be something along the lines of;

- the fiduciary aspect will be removed in all cases.

- disinterested duty from a broker to a consumer may potentially be found to exist (contrary to some prior rulings and cases), and in this event a fairness test will be applied to do with scale of commission (Plevin).

- disinterested duty, in the case of Hopcraft, will not found to be breached due to the low commission amount. (Following from FCA and CCA rules around fairness or material impact to a consumers decision).

- in cases which involve fully secret commission and high levels of commission, these would fall into the bribery route on the back of CCA disinterested duty (fairness / potential to affect decision).

I think the Treasury Select chair got it right with ‘unholy mess’.

Knot - interested to hear your view on this as you have posted a lot on the fiduciary aspect;

Given that there are distinct (at least prior to CoA) differences between a disinterested duty and a fiduciary, how do you suggest an overturn of the fiduciary aspect of the case in relation to Wrench / Johnson by the SC will affect the liability on CBG in the case of Hopcraft?

In Hopcraft, the CoA went from fully secret commission, with breach of disinterested duty by broker, to lender liable (under a bribery aspect). The higher bar attached to the fiduciary aspect appears to be more relevant to the cases of ‘half secret’ commissions which if overturned would not affect the Hopcraft ruling, that I can see.

CBG half year results Tuesday 18th

FTSE 250 review effective Monday 24th

SC case starts Tuesday April 1st

Some good viewing coming over the next couple of weeks. Enjoy your weekend folks.