Member Info for LIBERTY2

For those interested, this provides a clear opinion on why the CoA ruling is flawed (this is from a firm representing FirstRand, it provides the legal issues with the ruling in clear terms) - see points 1 to 16 for specifics on CBG case;

https://goughsq.co.uk/court-of-appeal-hands-down-decision-in-johnson-wrench-and-hopcraft/

The previous case law ruling that they suggest was entirely ignored was this;

‘’In Branwhite v Worcester Works Finance Ltd 1 AC 552, the House of Lords ruled that in a typical hire-purchase transaction, the dealer acts primarily on their own behalf, not as a general agent for either the finance company or the customer, and there's no need to attribute agency to them. ‘’

The reality is that if the SC ruling is not an over-turn, or significant scaling back, my concern will not be with a CBG holding at 0.2x book value. It will be with the rest of the UK market, who ever engaged in selling anything.

This is where the market will lose their money. They aren't even looking at this yet.

We can all only but hope that common sense meets common law.

I have been reviewing some historical Close finance contracts (as previously mentioned I have an interest in an automotive dealer and have personally dealt with processing of these in the past).

As stated in the Hopcraft case - certainly in the era of 2014 there was no mention of commission payable to the dealer (broker). This element is why the CoA concluded this was a secret commission.

In my opinion, this actually gives CBG an advantageous position in defence, when compared to the half-secret findings in the Firstrand cases.

It must be noted that CBG, atleast from my experience, did not pay the dealer (broker) a separate agency / introduction fee, nor did the customer (car buyer). So this element in itself cotradicts the Disinterested Duty which the CoA has imposed on CBG in the aspect of the 'secrect commission' cases. CBG did not ackowledge there was as a disinterested duty from the dealer to the customer, because they did not make note of a commission in the document packs. Where as Firstrand, by writing in to their contract that a commission may be paid, went half-way to acknowledging this relationship.

This is of course in addition to the flawed requirements for the dealer actually owing a disinterested duty to begin with. No logicially minded court can argue that this would be the case, given the finance is simply an extension of the car sale, which clearly is for profit and purely for the interests of the dealer. Without the agency fee being paid to the dealer, I truly do not see how it can be argued that this loyalty existed or was expected.

I know this has been touched on several times mainly by Knots insightful posts, but frankly the more you read and study the realities, the more you have to say the CoA ruling is totally illogicial and not supported by law as we know it.

Meconopsis - possibly, but it was listed on LSEG own website as an indicative addition a few weeks ago;

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-uk-index-series-indicative-review

Knot you may know this one;

Atalaya Mining - why would they not have been promoted to the 250, but THG were?

ATYM market cap on Tues = £500m approx

THG = £440m

Will be interesting to see when the shorts try to exit - somebodies working hard to push it low.

Gives the funds an opportunity to get in.

The effective review date for the 250 change is 24th March, so the tracker funds have between now and then to offload and balance their portfolios.

Tracker funds do own shares of the companies included within their funds. Upon exiting the 250, the funds tracking the 250 will sell shares of the deleted company, thus creating selling pressure.

Upon re-entry, they will be buying them back, creating buying pressure.

I believe the period between now and the 24th (effective date) is for the purpose of the funds balancing their portfolios, so I would expect buying between now and then.

Sheltie - yep, let them play. The writings on the wall at this point.

I feel even with a poor SC outcome these price levels are going to look historicially cheap down the line. Reality - I am a believer that logic will prevail and it will on balance fall in the favour of the banks, leading to a quick re-rate to fair value +.

M007J - the growing calls from central government for economic growth, alongside easing of regulatory requirements on the banking sector is all positive for CBG.

The next step will likely be lowering of capital ratio requirements which were raised around 2008. CBG has always adopted a very strong and conservative approach to theirs (50% over regulatory requirements), for good reason, but it is the general positive tone around the UK banking sectors profit making ability which will aid in pushing all associated stock in the right direction. The UKs financial sector p/e ratio is significantly lower than it should be - this feels like the turning point on that.

In a sea of red CBG performed incredibly well today, even without the help of an RNS - looks like you were right on this one Knot. Perhaps a couple of longs taking on and not breaching the 5%.

That should see us back into the 250 - I think a very positive step forward for CBG to regain its position in a prestigious index. It has to add volume, interest and integrity - onwards and upwards.

All the best.

Looks to be a 1.5m sell went through, dropped from 3.36 to 3.30. Back to 3.36 with piddly volume - strong support.

Shorts shaking the tree perhaps - likely to see more of this over the next 40mins. They could have accounted for some of the volume on Friday if they were taking on inventory to defend a short position.

C2645sg - I have an insignificant interest in AML so periodically pop my head in for a browse. In the kindest way possible, it looks like you have an unhealthy negative obsession here, to put it mildly - it can't be good for your mental energies.

There is a lot of other stock out there, perhaps spending more of your time elsewhere may be a positive move.

Just an general observation, no beef to be had.

All the best.

Knot - interesting point. Could well coincide with end of month contracts.

To me looking at it with a more simplistic view, it would seem too coincidental that on the same day the CBAM deal is inked (removing substantial potential for downside in the SP if it was to fall through. Facilitating CBG ability to settle potential claims) - an incredibly large volume goes through. Quite reminiscent of the Jupiter long position days before the Treasury announcement.

If we are to see an RNS update tomorrow I believe it will most likely be from a currently under the radar long who have added significantly breaching the threshold. Given that 5% would be 7.5m shares - its possible, but less likely that it would be a full new position.

Certainly expecting a rollercoaster tomorrow.

All the best.

Knot -

''This makes for a double edge sward because if two types of shorts were closing out on Friday the plausible aspect of another long buying in does not seem to fit the pucture or trend of the share price at the moment.''

Out of interest, why do are you reaching that conclusion? In laymans terms, shorts closing out (assumed SP is to rise), potential longs buying in (due to assumed SP rising). What would lead you to suggest a long would not take a position in that scenario?

Squarepoint reduced their short on Friday, now below the reportable limit.

There should have been more life in CBG today with the positive news - clear to see there are players who do not want this in the 250 tomorrow. I suspect there will be bigger players with deeper pockets who do want to see it return to the index.

Lets see what tomorrow brings.

I suppose we have to take comfort that Winterflood is the UKs top market maker, and owned by CBG. You would expect their expertise in the market would oversee fair play for the group.

For my money, the benefit of entering the 250 is the pressure on this persistent manipulation and surpression of the price. The market can not value todays CBAM completion at a mere 2% - the cash this adds to the groups position, the competence shown by management in the execution of the deal, the growing positive sentiment the banks are benefiting from - this is worth more than 2% today.

It is not good for business having an artificially surpressed share price - I appreciate as a long term holder it all comes out in the wash, but the business needs a far crack of the whip along the way. I believe the 250 gives it that momentum.

In terms of 250 re-entry figures for those interested;

As it stands today, market cap of approx £520m / £3.45 share price should be what is required for re-entry, at market close tomorrow. Figures subject to change depending on the performance of the other constituents.