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Knot - interesting slant on it. What will be, will be.

I expect there will be another RNS tomorrow with a major shareholder update following Fridays late transactions. It will be interesting to see the markets reaction to this.

In terms of CBAM sale - lets remember that CBG have tabled the notion of selling this since 2023. It has been a long term view of focusing their attentions on their core business model of banking / lending. They did achieve a good multiplier on the sale, even in the distressed position.

The sale value - the net gain of £58m is effectively the premium they have achieved for the business. Which taking into account the transaction cost, is around a 10x multiplier of profit for the last f/y - a good return. What is more important at this time is the releasing of the equity from the asset value of CBAM, which is circa £100m.

All in all, I believe the transaction is positive for the group, especially at this time.

With revised upward capital ratio increase of 120 points.

A perfectly timed deal to propel CBG back into the 250, an important part of the banks credibility and prestige.

Take this as conscientious and professional oversight from the management team who are truly acting in the best interest of the business.

Congratulations.

Fridays 11.5m traded shares gets into CBG top 10 days in terms of volume in the past 30 years.

I am reading that as buying pressure given the prices in the auction. IMO a new major shareholder - which has likely significantly consumed the market makers pool of inventory.

If this is the case I believe we can expect a sharp rise next week due to lack of immediate liquidity and interest around Fridays late volume.

It feels like this play would be on the back of potential 250 re-entry, general optimism and proximity to the SC case which is now only a month away, and possibly some off market info on the CBAM deal. I think somebody has taken the view this is the last stop before a significant price rise on CBG.

Either way - it makes for an interesting week.

It never fails to amaze me how a £180k buy, can move the market less than £1k sell.

There has been sustained, quiet accumulation the past few days - positive.

A nice steady flow of bulky accumulation in the orders today. The downtrend of the FTSE250 will help CBGs chances of re-entry on Tuesday. Currently would require market cap of around £530m / £3.53 share price.

Friday / Monday / Tuesday would be the most opportune time for management to report the CBAM deal completion (if it is indeed anywhere near being done).

Its a key point for the short market on CBG, with the impending FTSE review on Tuesday. They will be doing everything possible to prevent this getting to £3.60 before then, as the introduction of the tracker volume and general sentiment shift will run them over in a spectacular way.

It would be nice to see the CBAM deal conclude and management report it in the next couple of days - this would be the catalyst needed imo. This being said - looking at previous Oaktree buyout of Sanlam Wealth (another UK asset management firm) in 2022, this did get delayed and took 8 months from the point of deal agreed.

Morning Chid,

as per my previous message, 40% of CBG is owned by ten multi-billion pound shareholders. Including but not limted to; Blackrock, Vanguard, Jupiter, Royal London, Aviva, Abrdn etc etc. And this 40% is the top ten, there will be plenty more of the worlds most prestigious fund managers with long positions.

Needless to say, these boys are not 'arm chair PIs'.

These discussions are all quite irrelevant, the share price will go up or it will go down, im in different because in the long term the odds are in its favour and ill take the odds - thats investing, it is what it is.

At this point I think we can all do ourselves a favour and park the speculation around a totally unknown SC ruling until after the fact, it will save a lot of typing.

All the best.

The panic over short interest in stocks is interesting - it seems to be very quickly forgotten that alongside a mere, lets say 5%, of shorts on a share, there must be 95% of the market who are long. In the case of CBG this includes; Blackrock, Vanguard, Jupiter, Royal London, Aviva, Abrdn etc etc.

What qualifies a mere 0.5% short position from a little know quant trader as more informed decision than the circa 40% accumulative holding the top 10 longs hold on the business, some of the biggest names in the investment world?

With continued uncertainty it would stand to reason there are several short holders under the 0.5% reporting limit, as there will be on plenty of the market at any one time. Squarepoint have likely placed a small addition at circa £3.30 to an exisiting position which pushes them over the reportable limit.

In the short term they have been correct. If theres news of a successful conclusion to the CBAM this week, or other positive reports whatever they may be, they will be wrong. As we have seen, they leave as quick as they came, not before pushing the share price higher with a squeeze. Short term speculation, it will always exist on both sides of the investing sphere.

Take a look at the Wood Group for the short positions who have been feverishly adding over the past few days, only to be severely burnt today.

Knot may add further opinion on a hedged bet or more indepth trade.

Could be on the 3rd of April, could be several months after, as the CEO of Lloyds recently commented. It is entirely at the discretion of the court how long is required to reach a verdict.

Management could play a card this week by announcing completion of the CBAM transaction toward the weeks end knowing this would likely build the momentum for re-entry the following Tuesday.

Knot has provided this link previously. If you scroll down to the ‘FTSE 250 AUTOMATIC ENTRY POSITION’, this is the required level. That page was last calibrated on Friday 7th of Febs figures, so may have shifted slightly depending on market movements.

https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

CBG would need a market cap of around £540m / £3.65 share price at market close on Tuesday 4th of March for re-entry into the 250.

To correct the previous post - the FTSE250 consists of the 100-350 largest companies, previous post is including the FTSE100 in those figures.

My mistake - I should have further qualified my interest in hearing thoughts; if anybody has genuine thoughts or points on that specific matter I raised regarding CBAM, I would be most interested in hearing those. Incoherent ramblings of an 80 year old avid forum user are thoughts which would not fit into this request.

Thanks

Given the 'agreed deal' status of the CBAM sale, what do we feel are the risks posed at this point with the deal not successfully concluding?

From a logical view point, the position of CBG is considerably weaker than it was when the deal was agreed in September, due to the CoA ruling and subsequent share price hit. Oaktree have to be using this to their advantage, they are no charity - questionable if the terms of the deal would include caveats around significant changes in the businesses performance or position prior to conclusion of the deal which may allow for renegotiation or voiding of contract.

It could also be argued that the sale of CBAM may not be essential at this point for CBG to weather the storm, non the less if we get a report that this has fallen through it has to have a severe impact on the SP at this level.

Interested to hear thoughts on this.

I am assuming that would be myself, given my habit of using a hyphen in sentences, for some reason, appears to identify me as a MM to Daltry. The internet is an amusing place.

On the topic of prospective dividends; I feel, SC outcome dependant, we may see dividends return in 2026. Knot may well have a strong point on the buyback, which I would have no issues with given the positive sentiment it would add here.

I have personally dealt with Close for 15+ years - due to my interest in an automotive dealership. Needless to say this matter is of great interest to me.

I invested in CBG in November based on my knowledge of the company and how it works, together with the blindingly good value on offer. Close have always been an absolutely stand-up company to deal with, employing the top people in the industry and a pleasure for their dealer network to partner with - you will always here the company mentioned in high regard within the industry.

They have always been a conservative lender, I know this through their risk tolerance with customers, they are never the go to finance house for those customers with a weak profile. This conservative nature makes them a good bet for investment at these levels, they are not over-exposed in the wrong areas which aids in times of economic issue. It also suggests to me that they would look to buffer their cash reserves off the back of this with lower or delayed dividends, as this debacle has certainly been an eye-opener for the industry that ' cash is king ' in times of distress.

As always, time is often the greatest healer, and I have every faith that CBG will prosper for years to come.

IMO over the course of 3 to 5 years you have a good chance of seeing the £10 share price again - this is certainly my target levels. You appear to have a mid - long term view if you are holding since 2022, and you have averaged down well.

My opinion - your money, you manage it how you see fit.

Lloyds up today - I'm pleased for you Chid, hopefully a more positive position.