Member Info for LIBERTY2

The movement today especially, is perfectly displaying a managed MM walk-down. Minimal insignificant volumes causing a push down through the prices, with substantial rounded buying pressure on each level, yet the offers keep declining.

To a layman it looks like a large order is being filled.

It does work both ways. We welcome the buying from long support, you also have to accept the selling pressure from short activity. The market will find its level.

With a relatively large short presence here, its just going to happen in this interim. Long holders can take comfort from the 6 month chart, there has been continued support and recovery each time to a higher SP which is to be expected given the positive momentum toward an ultimatum date and pro-bank developments.

There really cannot be any sincere SP until a SC ruling, and then the FCA conclusion.

Past this point, we move on. 1, 2, 5 years from now I see a double digit SP and a decent dividend return.

To address previous conversations around capital raises - analysis from KBW on todays update:

‘’ Analysts at KBW said the improved capital position "removed the risk of a capital raise" to cover possible liabilities. KBW has set Close's 'worst case' liability estimate at 460 million pounds.’’

Also worthy noting - KBW set their £460m worst case comp scenario in January, prior to various pro-bank stimulants and improved market sentiment toward the case.

They currently have a Outperform rating and £4.30 price target on Close.

Looks like a decent update to me - no shocks, exceeded expectations on capital ratios, Winterflood in profit, slightly lower NIMs / loan book in line with previous guidance and considered lending until uncertainty resolved.

Lets see where this gets led today.

One can only assume Chids cashed in some of his Lloyds shares and taken the Mrs on a cruise. Up 40% in 6 months - good to see.

End of day auction uncrossing trade at circa 2% higher than the last open market buy. Lets see how this bullish sentiment plays out in tomorrows update.

To add to the previous post… this is also a period for the index holders to rebalance their positions.

If CBG holds or improves on its current price between now and early June, the index holders will also be increasing their holding to represent the improved position in the index compared to its position when it re-entered earlier this year.

As has been previously suggested by Knot, the short holders who have been adding in the past few weeks could have been looking to push CBG back out of the FTSE 250.

The cut off date for the rebalance is June 3rd.

CBG would need a market cap of around £360m to be pushed out automatically / share price of £2.40ish.

A few weeks ago this looked possible - looks like a much harder task at this point.

Perhaps strategies will be forced to change on the short market.

A simple question of whats your goal with this investment.

1 - long term; with an eye on a value considerably higher than today? If so, keep your shares and buy more if it does dip to a level you consider fair.

2 - short term; take the profit if its good enough for your goals.

Nobody can consistently and accurately predict the short term movements of a share, especially in special situations like this. The market has a habit of doing exactly what you think it won’t so as a long term holder I find it easier to remove the human emotion and jerk reactions from it by looking past the weekly volatility, or how that may affect my holding - just personal preference you have to do what suits you.

Hope you’ve had an enjoyable afternoon C26.

- Im retrospect, I know very little about most of the 7,000+ companies I am ‘invested’ in, thankfully its a long proven method and has been a successful strategy to build wealth over the years I have partaken in it.

- I offered no advice related to Aston Martin, for which you could ignore. Unsure how your previous price predictions tie-in to a benign suggestion that you may want to look out the window and live a little.

- very important for the stock market to have bears and bulls, without these it stops working. I haven’t studied them in detail, but what I have seen of your posts they seem to be fairly factual which is great, albeit with a strong negative bias, which is also fine, you are entitled to your opinion.

The concerning point for an unemotional bystander is the sheer unrelenting obsession displayed, some would consider this worthy of intervention (if C26s’ wife, family or friends are reading, could be time).

Also quite concerning a grown man using the term ‘hehe’, but you did give me a laugh, thank you.

So overall from my perspective it has been a relatively factual and humorous experience from your last few posts, albeit with continued concern for your mental health. Certainly no filter required.

I’ll check back in in a month or two and see how the psychology has developed.

All the best folks.

C26 - £125m; i’ve no idea - I don’t know enough about the business to make any informed comment on its financials or fundamentals, AML is a very insignificant part of a portfolio for me, akin to investing in a 250 index. I’m more interested in them from the basic automotive stand point and their brand.

Your doomsday view may well be totally accurate, business may fail a week on Tuesday for all I know.

My comment is simply a guy to guy, move on my friend, thing. Lifes short, go smell the flowers, you’re horrifically deep in your mind on this.

Enjoy your sunday.

*periodic amusement check-in*

C26 - Yep you still need help, my friend. You have given years of your life to an internet chat board, on a stock you are not vested in, scouring the internet for only negative leaning bias to fuel a relentless argument with anonymous bullish ‘internet people’.

Man, take a day off, theres more to life than this. Go to an Aston dealership and egg the forecourt, at least you’l get some sunlight.

All the best.

For those less familiar with the model of CBG, a lot of its strengths are in speciality lending which it has become renowned for in the market after decades of solid work. It works a lot with small / medium residential and commercial developers, asset finance for business, energy sector etc etc. Most weeks you can find a new very substantial deal, here is one from today:

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/national/enviromena-secures-3.7m-funding-for-south-wales-solar-project-set-to-power-3900-homes

Substantial volume today - good to see the company falling on to investors radars.

It is Wednesday, and it is only a trading update, not results

A handsome upgrade from RBC, and even nicer write up from them on the analysis (link below). Worth remembering, RBC were the outliers offering the £650m compensation consensus - this has now been revised to £250m, if the ruling goes the way their experts believe it should.

https://www.investments.halifax.co.uk/research-centre/news-centre/article/?id=19694654&type=bsm#:~:text=RBC%20Capital%20Markets%20lifted%20its,the%20end%20of%20the%20tunnel%22.

I’d think some modest positive tone around how the case went for them, potentially that Winterflood has unexpectedly benefited from the market volatility and turned a profit / perhaps comment on them being approached for an acquisition, more about the bank being well capitalised but unable to comment further until the ruling, and yes business as usual in their banking sector potentially with some positive tone around the economic stimulus on house building etc as they do a fair bit of funding for smaller developers.

But the reality is that the previous half year results didn’t really give the market any information they did not already have from 6 weeks prior, yet the market managed to act totally irrationally, which has now been recovered.

All part of the fun.

Best thing to do with the pop up CMC ads is give them a click every time you see them. Cost them a few £.

This is a do or die time for the claims management companies.

The FCA made clear that if they do implement a redress scheme, it would be an automatic refund to consumer and consumers SHOULD NOT go through a CMC.

The CMCs have a very limited window to mop up any of the consumers who have not educated them on this matter, if in the event of a hypothetical scheme they want their 30% cut.

They are making an investment in ads in the hope of there being a scheme and lulling some under-educated consumers into signing up to their terms. Its a business investment… some pay dividend, some do not, who knows!

Are you referring to the share incentive plan, released on RNS yesterday?

A grand total of 120 shares, between three.