My opinion on SyQic18 Aug 2014 13:02
following the RNS today
Good Points
Revenue up 424%
Gross Profit up 2,671%
H1 2014 Revenue (£4.6m) = FY 2013 Revenue (£4.7m)
Placing is at a good price (3.8% discount shows high demand)
Maaduu acquisition sounds very good in some respects. SyQic have “over 1 million subscribers” and this will add a further 850,000 subscribers and there are clearly plenty of other benefits to this acquisition that may cost as little as £0.58m.
From what we know PTNP, the villain in SyQic’s story to a large extent, has not missed a payment to SyQic and are now paying them much more promptly (we’ve been told).
Bad Points
The fact they did not state Maaduu’s profit is not a good sign. If the additional benefits do not come through this acquisition may end up looking like £0.58m badly spent.
The size of the placing is a result of cash flow issues – namely PTNP not paying what they owe to SyQic fast enough.
The fact PTNP have paid their January 2014 payment of £350,000 is good in itself, but it makes me wonder why this is only being announced now. I think it’s a sign that PTNP continue to be slow at paying SyQic what they owe. ******s.
Gross Profit is lower than I was expecting. £0.97m of £4.6m revenue is 21.1% - nowhere near the 59% I am expecting for the full year. I find this very concerning and am irritated that no explanation has been given.
Conclusion
SyQic is growing incredibly fast as it is. This growth is being accelerated by this acquisition. The move from the Telco business model to the OTT business model is proving its worth. Revenue is in line to grow about 100% this year and 2015 is looking even better.
It’s worth noting that the Revenue and Gross Profit growth is flattered by how poor H1 2013 was for SyQic (through no fault of their own). Having said that, even taking the above into account, SyQic is growing very fast. And, despite my grumbling about the gross profit margin, gross profit is clearly much higher than it was at the same time last year – I am still expecting profit before tax to increase by 260%.
I predict the forward PE ratio will be below 7 and the forward EV/EVIT will be below 6.5 – both of these are way below the market average and the sector average. In other words SyQic is incredibly cheap. The major fly in the ointment is how slow PTNP is paying SyQic but, providing you believe SyQic will receive the full amount of what they’re owed by this Telco, then you’d be mad not to invest in SyQic.
Based on various assumptions my Target Price has increased from 144p to 169p