Initial Thoughts23 Jun 2014 15:23
Good points:
1) The major contract win is transformational. The share price is roughly 50% up on when it was first mentioned yet that is a very muted reaction all things considering.
Revenue will be substantially higher and, more importantly, (and if the 99% gross profit figure is correct) then MIRA will not only return to profit but profit will be around £1.8 to £2.5m I reckon. The P/E ratio would then be in single digits, and the EV/EBIT would also be very very cheap (6.5 to 9). This would suggest fair value to be c30p.
Vivendi-owned GVT clearly like mira's product/services and that's very very encouraging.
2) Additionally it would be a superb reference point in securing future contracts of a similar size. This could be just the beginning of a transformational period in the company's history.
3) The company is benefitting from the Brazilian World Cup as the rate of growth in subscribers has accelerated.
4) No brokers cover mira but Shareprophets do, and they do have influence.
Bad points:
1) mira operates in South America and, for some reason, the market seems to hate foreign companies listed on AIM. This is a major negative unfortunately.
2) There's been a bit of director / ii selling lately. Not necessarily a bad thing in itself but it's perceived to be the case by the market.
Initial conclusion:
At the moment you can buy into a fast growth company at a cheap price - a very rare and exciting opportunity. Clearly the market is unaware or sceptical towards mira's turnaround story but the proof is in the pudding, the numbers will reveal all over the course of time. So, despite the negatives, this is still looking very very good on balance.
More research to come...