Member Info for Libero

Libero is actually my dad's first name but even he would say he's English, not Italian lol

Haha not really. I have Italian heritage and an Italian surname but I was born in England, I've always lived in England, and I feel English (and my name's Dan) so no not really.

Jolly - I agree it's not dirt cheap tbh and I'm rueing the fact I didn't buy in when it was almost 10% cheaper to do so not long ago! Think I'm too late? What do you see as fair value here?

Whoa I did not realise CNKS was QPP’s Nomad but it turns out they are. I see this as a negative really because QPP is generally quite dodgy from what I can tell, thus the sustained attacks from TW and, as you can see from the link below, TW’s attention has now included CNKS for the first time. Bit disappointed by this tbh. http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/6154/a-formal-request-to-the-fca-aim-regulation-regarding-quindell-and-cenkos-regarding-the-pt-lie

Superb trading statement and now I wish I took my own advice when I touted this as a Strong Buy at 178.5p - I'd be 21% up (on the mid price ofc)

Further credit to the 2014 figures? Could anyone explain that to me? (Second to last paragraph)

It's the one thing I really dislike about AIM - it's full of impatient PIs lol Nevermind. SYQ still doubled in price this week :D

Points to counter the “Bad Points”: -EPS and PBT are clearly still going to show handsome growth. -Even if the cash on the balance sheet isn’t all MFX’s, some of it and so the balance sheet is still superb. -H2 may just historically be the better half the year, if so 2014 is going to be a stellar year. -MFX are well placed to capitalise on the window of opportunity to lend created by the mainstream banks' weaker balance sheets which in turn cause them to be reluctant to lend. That window of opportunity is so damn wide that I reckon there’s enough room for MFX and all their competitors to grow. Conclusion: Whilst I’ve missed the recent gains I’m genuinely surprised the company hasn’t rise further in light of a superb turnaround. Combine the fast growth with the plans for the aforementioned JV, the company’s at a very exciting stage in its history and it’s clearly undervalued based on forward projections.

Initial thoughts on MFX Don’t shoot me down if my workings are wrong cos this is back of a handkerchief sort of calculations but here’s my initial thoughts on MFX: Good points: -2013 FY results showed absolutely incredible turnaround and amazing earnings growth! -The company’s clearly still growing -The balance sheet looks amazing with a good amount of cash and no current liabilities!!! (…but more on the cash later) -The recent trading update shows that total assets is growing at 20% in the first third of 2014, the same rate as 2013’s average. -2013 H2 PBT accounted for almost 76% of the FY PBT. If the 2013 H2 performance continued at a flat rate throughout 2014 EPS would rise to 1.7 giving us a P/E of 8.8 (incredibly low for a fast-growing business). PBT would rise to 1.62 and, if EV/EBIT ratios are applicable (more on that later…), it would work out at 10.5/1.6 = 6.5. For reference an EV/EBIT ratio of 5-7 is what Jolly calls “the sweet spot.” -They plan on launching a Joint Venture “focussing on insurance premiums and asset backed finance for businesses.” -The former is a v easy earner. I work with clients who pay over £1m in premiums and they love to spread that premium spend out across the course of the year and usually ~3% interest is slapped on it – it’s a v easy earner. -Regarding the latter: it is essentially a pawn shop sort of business but with more reliable customers. I can’t name the company I’m thinking of but there’s someone in that space already and they’re doing incredibly well from it. -The company is clearly well run by a competent BoD / CEO Bad Points (or more accurately ‘Reasons not to go crazy bullish’): -If the total asset growth is anything to go by, it’s clear that MFX are doing better than 2013 H1 but they’re underperforming compared to 2013 H2 which suggests 2013 EPS and PBT of 1.7 and 1.62 respectively is probably way off the mark. -Now about the cash on the balance sheet: it’s not clear to me whether the reported cash is MFX’s cash or their customers. I could be wrong. Maybe customers’ assets comes under assets (£100m) which is why the company still has a MC of £15m but there’s a chance not all of the cash on the balance sheet is MFX’s. If that’s the case, and taking the worst-case scenario that none of it is MFX, the EV rises to 14.8, EV/EBIT (using 1.62m PBT) therefore rises to 9.1 - still very good. But, as I just explained, it seems as though the company is growing at a slower pace than they were during the second half of 2013. -There’s lots of competition out there. (continued....)

...as shan would say 1) It's share price performance over the years has been superb 2) The P/E ratio of 11 is undemanding 3) The EV/EBIT ratio looks good at 9.6 but Paul Scott said, due to the nature of the business, EV is irrelevant so moving on... 4) HY results were absolutely incredible! ...but H2 is usually loss making so broker forecasts of modest growth is probably accurate 5) The recent sell-off is probably more to do with the airline industry struggling in general but I don't see why that would affect DTG. Could be wrong mind. There's enough here to catch my eye so I've stuck it on the watchlist.

Rhaegar, I agree about REDT being quite arrogant and I’m not just talking about these results but their investor communications in general over the last 6 months or so. Thanks for saying it’s nice to have me back. You can credit REDT with that because, despite my efforts to disengage, I knew REDT was releasing its FY results around 11 June and therefore found my way back to LSE to warn everyone that REDT’s share price will fall because I’m an omen, a curse! …and I was right haha! You say I seem to be doing most things right but my portfolio disagrees with you haha! Thanks for the book recommendations – I’ll check those out. All the best to you, Dan

Good morning Jolly, The RNS said that discontinued ops was related to ARC (which then became Linx) so yes it is Linx related – presumably relating to their 25% stake only too. Linx/ARC’s PBT rose from £51k last year to £174k this year (240% growth) which is far better than I expected! REDT selling their 25% share of Linx was a mere £375k thus works out at 2.15 x PBT – a shockingly poor deal! In fact I kinda wish I hadn’t realised that because I was already irritating from the results in general. The business has inexplicably contracted year-on-year. That bodes very poorly in my eyes because REDT had previously had consistently decent growth year on year - it meant REDT offered a v positive stability you rarely find on AIM. The H1 results showed that the consistently decent growth was not only continuing but accelerating (and that was without Linx being included in the results nor the contract with a 2nd major insurance company that was supposed to increase year end earnings by 5%) I posted a very long comment on REDT on 13th June. It detailed the pros, the cons, and my FY expectations and beyond; and everything I wrote there was very thought out and the product of much research. I put so much into it that I thought the results could not surprise me and yet they did – they hugely disappointed me. In summary: 1) The FY results were inexplicable rubbish / rubbish & not at all explained. This is a marked negative departure from the company’s historic performance 2) The company gave every indication that things were going really well for all parts of the business, including Linx, and yet that clearly wasn’t the case. This makes me question how trustworthy the company is. 3) Considering the FY results claimed that the company was growing when the opposite is the case I have even more reason to question how trustworthy the company is. 4) The Linx deal was dreadful for us shareholders, and makes you question the company’s competence. 5) I’m left to conclude that either the investor communications were atrocious / arrogant at best, or downright dishonest at worst. In light of all of the above I struggle to see how I could ever re-invest in REDT again. As you can tell I’m pretty ****ed off. Kind regards, Dan

It also falls a ridiculous amount on the tiniest of sells. i.e. it's illiquidity is a seriously double-edged sword

I originally gave this a look cos of KaChina, liked it, not clearly never invested. Today it's back on the radar and I have to say it's looking v good. Total assets rose 6.7% in 4 months which suggests MFX's assets will grow by 20% over the course of 2014 - the same % increase as last year! Not only is that an impressive rise I really like that sort of consistency. It's definitely time I do some more research here....

Cenkos is also the nomad to RDT RDT is an interesting one because it was originally going to float at £60m MC yet it floated at £25m instead in the end. Not sure if that's a sign of things to come or not...

and reason for the fall... http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=SPSC&ArticleCode=ozi5u75h&ArticleHeadline=Settlement_of_lawsuit_and_termination_of_agreement

RW, thanks for your post but would you mind clarifying it a bit? Are you basically saying "Paul Scott missed all the non-accounting red flags (and because there were no accounting red flags his bullishness was mistaken"? You've listed a fair few of the signs that PS missed but why is acquisition growth bad? Are you saying that, if you have to acquire a new business or two to grow, then you're not really growing at all? Best, Dan

EV/EBIT is just 6 now - this is looking v cheap!

By the way MOS, I just want to say thank you for your kind message when I said I was quitting LSE and your message when I returned (apologies for not replying to that latter one!) - I really appreciated them both. I hope your portfolio is doing better than my own haha!

Scarlett is right but the MMs do really play around with this share. I'll seen the tiniest of volume cause a 5-10% fall before here. It can be deeply frustrating. As I said on riddler's technicials - holding this share is a rollercoaster. First you had the long drift from from 80-90p to 60p, it then more then double bagged to 130p (just), before falling to 32p recently, before more than double bagging again. Mental.