Member Info for Libero

Jolly - I've taken a look at this because I know your a fan and I have to say this is looking rather good, especially after that large director buy! You'll be pleased to know I'm not going to invest / curse this stock because, as said previously, I've lost confidence in my investing ability but this does look like it should do well. Good luck buddy PS - left you a message on RBN

Hey Jolly, how are you doing? did you have a good weekend, notwithstanding the football lol? I just wanted to say re: RBN - you have really changed your tune compared to what you were saying 10-11 May sort of time when you thought this was fully priced (at 200p ish)

I weren’t expecting a reply let alone as many as that. Thank you v much for all your responses. I’m busy today and tomorrow but, when I can, I intend to research this because you’ve certainly piqued my interest. HH – I appreciate what you say about it not meeting my criteria but 1) With WSG, I did research it a little, came up with lots of questions but most of them were never answered. Probably due to the fact the share price fell through its long-standing support level at just about the same time. So (unfortunately) my interest waned. 2) My criteria has become a little more flexible in recent months – investing in APC was a very clear departure from my usual investment approach for instance. Have a good weekend all :) Dan

but why are you guys so bullish here?

based on 20p buy price Bull Case -All parts of the business are growing very nicely and are profitable. -The company has long term contracts with blue chip companies (HSBC, AIG, etc), providing long term revenue visibility. -They’ve been very successful in securing new contracts each year so there’s probably more to come. -Historic EV/EBIT ratio is 10.3 and the forward EV/EBIT is just 8 ish based on my fairly conservative estimate which is very good all things considered. -I’m expecting a 18% - 25% rise in revenue, and a 12-20% rise in PBT for 2014. -I predict 2015 will then be even better due to the reasons above and also: A) Linx (25% owned by REDT) seems to be doing very well in these early days and we’ll see the full effects in 2015. B) We’ll see the full effects of the new contract with the “second major Accident & Health insurance provider.” C) The benefits of the increased spending on marketing for the Business Support segment will shine through and a higher % of their revenues will turn to profit I reckon. -2015 will be an even better year than 2014, with revenue rising to c £9.5m and PBT rising to c £1.4m I reckon. This would mean 2015 EV/EBIT would be just 6-7 based on the current price which is absolutely superb! -The 2013 ROCE, based on my own workings, is close to 30% which indicates that the company has a decent competitive advantage over their peers. REDT’s very good 14-15% operating margin also indicates this. -There’s a nice c 2.5% yield. Bear Case -There must be quite heavy reliance on the blue chip clients. But they’re currently all locked in to 3 year contracts which they keep renewing so that mitigates that risk. Additionally the company keep looking for new clients and recently signed a contract with a 2nd big insurance company. -Sterling is very strong that leads to currency issues, which will presumably diminish the rise in revenue and PBT this year but only slightly. -Literally can’t think of anything else… Conclusion I think a reasonable 31st December 2014 target would be 35p. But let’s say 30p to be conservative – this still represents a chunky 50% upside over the next 6 months or so, excluding the dividend to be paid in August.

Blue, Damn I forgot about that. You got lucky - I was only just inside a week! Yeah bet you did - fret than I'd return more like haha A ten bagger, if only! Have you seen my track record? VBR, Dan

In response to this post of yours on Riddler's Technicals: "Dan, EV/EBIT is 10-12 (compared to 5-7 for gbo or redt ...or cssg with a bit of shoving / creative numbering lol)... ...and 1H14 EBIT < 2H EBIT ...and FCF was low in 1H14... ...check the numbers...but that is broadly my read ...interested in trading update/finals" 1) 2014 H1 profit was below 2013 H2's admittedly BUT a) 2013 H1 EBIT was 114k, much lower than 2013 H2 EBIT's 245k .i.e. EBIT seems to usually be lower in H1 than H2 b) The company have said that EBIT will be "at least £500k" so it's fair to do this sum £500k - H1 14 EBIT (226k) = £274k minimum, which is clearly above 2013 H2 EBIT. Therefore the company is still growing. 2) I don't know how to check the FCF so I'll take your word for it but the company is still growing and announced £2m contract since the interims. In summary you're being a little harsh on AEO but admittedly it's not as cheap as REDT or (if you belive the figures) GBO.

Only just realised my last msg was cut off. Here's the missing bit: (in summary...) "the future is still very bright for this lovely fast-growing company so I remain bullish but DYOR of course &#61514;

Oh dear that really was bad. My girlfriend & I are huge fans of word play and we absolutely love puns (often the worst ones are the funniest). In fact she's so quick with the puns / word play I often say that she's the one who should have set up her own tabloid, not me lol. ... but that really was below par! It mustered an endearing smile out of me and that was more for the fact you laughed at your folly there haha :)

Run to the hills haha! Jolly, did you see my warning on REDT? It's time to sell there also LOL

I'll talk about the RNS in a mo but first – there’s a clear difference between whoever is responsible for COMS’s RNSs and whoever is responsible for SYQ’s RNSs. The former reported EBITDA at ~£1.5m when it was almost half that (827k), the latter mistakenly let a typo get published. Sloppy of course but the ‘2012’ – ‘2014’ thing was clearly just a typo. Now about the RNS: Q1 Rev - £2m = 666k/month, April & May Rev - £1.6m – 800k/month First 5 months of 2014 Revenue = £3.6m = 720k/month 720k x 12 = 8.64m Alternatively you could say 5 months Actual Rev of £3.6m + (7 more months of £800k) = £9.2m Either way that is significantly higher than Allenby Capital’s forecasted revenue for 2014 of £7.8m and WAY higher than 2013’s revenue of £4.7m! Although, to be fair to Allenby Capital, they always said their forecast was conservative because it was based on the ‘Telco model’, not the recently launched & significantly earnings-enhancing ‘OTT model.’ 2013 Gross Margin was 59% (above expectations). Providing that follows through into 2014 Gross Profit will realistically be £5 – 6m I reckon. Summary: 2014 is proving to be such a transformational year for the company. Now onto SyQic’s biggest problem & only real negative: the large trade receivable. We’ve had some mixed news on this today. Bad news: The Telco PTNP is the culprit for the large trade receivable. PTNP accounted for 60% of 2013’s revenue and yet it hasn’t been paying SyQic like it should. They owed £2.4m as of May 2013, and they’ve been billed £1.6m since. Total PTNP owe SyQic is therefore £4m. They’ve paid £902k to date and therefore still owe £3.1m – that’s still pretty rubbish really because they’re being billed faster than they’re paying the money back it seems. Sometimes a large trade receivable suggests that a company’s products/services are poor but that’s clearly not the case here. PTNP like SyQic’s services a lot and continue to use them, they’re just taking the **** when it comes to paying up what SyQic owe. Good news: A major part of the reason for the large trade receivable seems to be the Indonesian regulatory issue last year and an agreed payment plan which was perhaps too slow. So the news today that PTNP will start paying SyQic much more promptly is great news! More good news: This highlights the reasoning for SyQic moving from the Telco model to the OTT model. Under the new model they will be far less reliant on the Telcos for their earnings and so I remain confident that PTNP will pay everything it owes over time and, in the worst case scenario that they don’t, it’ll account for far less going forward than it has so far if that makes sense. So, in summary

Historical EV/EBIT is 9.2-9.5. Forward looking EV/EBIT must be even better. P/E ratio of 13 is low against its peers Generates tons of cash every year (look at those margins!) 78/100 Stockopedia stock rank at present One of Paul Scott's fav shares Loves paying dividends (8.4% year just gone!) Bad point - Company has bought a large number of its own stock in years past. Now Management own 90% of the stock so PIs will be at their mercy. However this hasn't happened yet and that probably also explains the high dividend payments too Conclusion This is a really good company to invest into. Adding it to the watch list now.

Haha I'm not investing that much - even if I was to sell everything I own down to the shirt on my back I wouldn't have enough to invest that much! No I've bought a v small amount. I'm buying despite saying I've quit cos I really like REDT & want to buy in before results. But I'm only buying a small amount because my confidence in my stock picking ability / the AIM market being rational has been hit hard in recent months.

I just thought I'd warn you that I'll be investing in REDT (for the long term) this afternoon. Take this opportunity to run now because I'm superbly talented at finding decent unloved companies and watching them become even more unloved upon my arrival. Beware!

Blue, You're one of the people who I was referring to earlier as being good company on the forums. You're great company m8. Is that way of saying that I'm impatient and need to grow a pair? ...maybe you have a point m8. I might have expected too much too fast A virtual heart warming hug to you too m8tey! VBR Dan PS - hope my overuse of the word m8 has wound you up a bit. ...that's for putting a fiver on me being back so soon!

You’re most probably right. I blame the Royal Mail IPO – that’s what got me going. I blame that & my job cos I'm not satisfied with it. They gave me a huge 20% pay rise this year but I feel it’s almost a consolidation prize because they can see I’m not doing what I want. Investing / posting on LSE has been a welcome distraction but also a v easy way of occupying my mind with guff to get away from the fact: I need to get a new job, especially now that – as of February - I’ve got a year’s experience at a v well-known insurance brokers. I used to want to be a politician (preferably Prime Minister lol) hence the Economics & Politics degree, then wanted to be a journalist hence the newspaper I set up at university, so part of me thinks ‘How am I here?’ haha But that feeling is just cos I’m not doing what I should be doing. Certain types of insurance jobs are absolutely fascinating & v rewarding in every sense of the word. And there’s some obviously fascinating types of insurance too – Kidnap & Ransom, Contingency, etc. ...but that's not what I'm doing at the mo. I need to get the right type of job (either as placing broking or underwriter) – it’s just that I don’t know where to specialise that I haven’t made a move yet… …and I feel Part* the reason I haven’t decided where to specialise is DIY investing & all what comes with it! * and I emphasise the word 'Part' because it’s not the main reason – main reason is cos I don’t quite know what’s out there & am scared of taking a wrong turn I was going to ask what you meant by folk “who may be but probably aren’t really” your mates but nevermind – you clearly have experienced something to make you think that way …although admittedly guy mates just meet up, drink, have a laugh, but don’t ever talk about problems etc like proper friends do (just girls do) so I can perhaps see where you’re coming from. Well that’s what me & my mates are like anyway… Anyways I really must go otherwise I’m gonna look ingenuine haha! Best, Dan PS - there's nothing wrong with old folk, buddy :)

You'll see on the SYQ bb that I'm off. I just wanted to give you this personal message to say thank you for all your help, and to let you know that I think you're cracking company - very knowledgable, very experienced, very helpful / kind, and always up for a laugh! I really appreciate the latter btw. You may not have guessed it from my posts but I love a laugh ...maybe I took this investment guff too seriously! (apologies) You still owe me lunch in the South of France - I'm gonna hold you to that haha! Take care you wonderful gent. Very best regards, Dan

Thanks for the advice all. I appreciate what you all say but I still kinda feel like quitting at the moment. Honestly this is my third mistake this year. First MOS, then I got shafted in UBC reverse takeover recently (but only had punt money in there to be fair), and now SYQ. What makes this loss feel worse is that I was 65-70% up at one stage but didn't sell, and I'm sorry to say this isn't the first time I've failed to sell when massively in profit only to see it disappear thereafter. You guys all say how it all works out nicely in the long term but surely your advice is skewed because that's been true of you. But what about all the other people who've continually lost money on AIM / with DIY investing? Their voices aren't here of course because they've given up already I'm sure, and I bet many of them were glad for it. The stock market is such a noisy place. There’s so much commentary, tips, and chatter and it’s constant. I think it encourages a short-termism when it comes to investing, and cultivates the worst in investor psychology – because there’s always a million shares you should buy into, there’s always a boat you’re missing, etc. Everyone tries to make out they’re immune from this sort of stuff but I suspect very few are. AIM is so illogical too. Riddler, you’re right to say that so many dogs have risen lately whilst decent companies fallen significantly. There’s also many companies that seem to remain perpetually cheap – another example of an irrational market. DIY investing is fascinating but I feel like the AIM market is very irrational a lot of the time so it's hard to make money, even if you really pick your stocks carefully after hours of research etc. i.e. Investing should reward careful share picking and yet, this year at the least, that doesn’t seem to hold true. So there’s a strong argument that a buy, hold, and forget strategy would be best in terms of financial returns and to avoid wasted energy and the noise filling your mind on a regular basis. And, considering all the points above, I’m finding that argument ever so convincing right now. I’ve learnt from so many people on here (Jolly in particular I’d say – thank you, Jolly!) and I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the company and posts of so many people, but right now I feel like leaving my investment and leaving the forum for a while because, if I had a motto at the tender age of 22, it’d be “Life is ultimately all about happiness” and I’m not deriving enough happiness from all of this to make it worthwhile and, besides that, there’s so much more to life than money. For all I know I may feel very different about things tomorrow lol but, in case I don’t, good luck to you all & thanks for everything. Take care, Dan

I still maintain fair value to be 140p ish here looking at the 2014 results. I'm not budging from my carefully selected target just because the price has plummeted, especially not when it's on such tiny volume.

I'm sick of losing money despite trying to be a value investor and always doing my research before buying in. I'm genuinely quite ****ed off right now actually. I can't understand where I'm going SO wrong! Maybe I should just buy into a fund or a tracker & forget about DIY investing altogether. I'm clearly not cut out for it.