This looks Very Good Value12 Sep 2014 17:08
At 263p / £70.2m
Based on 2013 figures: PE = 9.3, EV/EBIT = 13, and TNW = £16.2m (23% of market valuation)
H1 2014: Revenue was flat but Operating Profit rose hugely year on year, as did the PBT.
H1 PBT was £5.38m (up from a loss of £1.25m)
Therefore FY 2014 may well be H1 PBT times two = £10.76m
But, presuming H2 2014 is flat year on year, we can do this sum and H2 2013 + H1 2014 PBT is equal to £14.24m
Lets call the first guestimate a) and the second b). This gives us
a) 2014 EV/EBIT = 9.4, and
b) 2014 EV/EBIT = 7.1
The former is good but the latter is mouth-wateringly cheap!
Based on 2014 guestimates: forward PE is 7.3 (Paul Scott said as such) and I’ll take him at his word, forward EV/EBIT is 7.1 to 9.4, and TNW is a third of the market cap (which isn’t great but isn’t too awful either). There’s additionally a 2% yield on top.
Now, trying to take account of the recent acquisition, lets add £15m to the EV and they said it’ll be earnings enhancing so lets say £1m to the profit (that’s conservatively picked between the two figures they gave us - £0.1m profit in 2013, and £5m in 2010).
The EV/EBIT ratio then become as follows: a) 9.8 or b) 7.6, which is still bloody good.
So, in conclusion, I think that – whilst I reckon PIL may have overspent on their acquisition – I still consider this company to be very cheap in a variety of ways.