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As someone who is unfamiliar with TRAK and BVM really that comment went over my head a bit. Are you saying buying into both TRAK and BVM would potentially be a smart move? I got the latter bit about BVM specifically - it all sounds v good (I'm presuming that the software solutions business is more profitable than the hardware side of the business)

My 3rd July Conclusion here was as follows: "Conclusion: I like GTC but it needs to show more of a turnaround / produce more contract wins before I could seriously consider investing here after 2 profit warnings." This RNS was the sort of reaffirmation I needed but, having only just seen it now, I'm clearly too slow off the blocks on this one. The perils of working full time haha! Well done to all holders Very best regards, Dan

This is now looking v cheap and super attractive

In a statement made at its annual general meeting on Thursday, AIM-listed telematics and data supplier Trakm8's executive chairman John Watkins told investors it had made continued strong organic growth. He said trading in the first four months of the current financial year had started well, with a 33% rise in the value of new orders booked compared to the same period last year on a like-for-like basis. A full period contribution from Box along with much higher levels of Trakm8 sales resulted in revenues being "considerably higher" than last year with the corresponding benefit to profitability, he explained. He also revealed an increase of 17,000 to 75,000 in the number of units reporting to its servers. Addressing investors, he said: "New customer contracts with Kubota and Downton have been announced and the shipments to Direct Line customers have started. The T10 product family is expanding in range and features, which has increased the numbers of customers purchasing both hardware and data services. "The board is confident that, with this good start to the current financial year, the group is on course to achieve expectations for the year as a whole." Shares had climbed 6.49% to 78.80p by 13:29.

when would be a good time to buy?

Based on 2013 figures the EV/EBIT is 15.2 and company is trading at a 27.5% discount to TNW The interim 2014 results showed were absolutely superb though so now the EV/EBIT must be 7.5 to 8 ish from my calculations. Additionally the TNW rose so that the company is now trading at a 33.6% discount to TNW. The Q3 update was also very positive saying revenue were 21.4% higher (even better than the 20.4% shown at the interims). The only thing I haven't mentioned so far is the PE ratio. Based on the 2013 figures it looks faily high (at 23) but it looks like EPS will be roughly 64% higher. I reckon 2014 EPS will be about 4.7p giving a forward PE ratio of 14. Conclusion Forward PE is undemanding considering growth EV/EBIT ratio indicates the company is very cheap It is trading at a 33% discount to TNW so there's a great margin of safety The accounts (cash & liability) look very healthy There's also a 3% yield Chart-wise, it looks to have bottomed out. Therefore it looks like now would be a good time to buy.

Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK) - This telematics company seems to be going from strength to strength, which has been reflected in its share price. The AGM trading update today reads well, with some positive detail about strong organic growth, as well as a contribution from the acquired company called BOX. The summary says; The Board is confident that, with this good start to the current financial year, the Group is on course to achieve expectations for the year as a whole. Interestingly though, the shares still look quite good value - broker consensus is for 5.7p EPS this year (ending 31 Mar 2015), so the PER is 13.8 times at the current share price of 78.5p. That doesn't look demanding for a growth company in my view. Watch out for capitalised development spend here though, which flatters the reported profit quite a bit. - See more at: http://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-4-sep-2014-tast-trak-emr-85842/#sthash.T9ej37cz.dpuf

Even taking into account the Harmonic deal (worth ~£600k PBT) it still doesn’t look as appetising as it did before.

Revenue is slightly down, which is slightly surprising. PBT and EPS both rose (42% and 31% respectively) but the Pebble Beach acquisition was always going to increase PBT by about 42% anyway so basically there’s been no organic growth. Again I’m surprised by this. The cash to total liability ratio used to be a very impressive. With cash covering 62% of all liabilities. Now that total liabilities (incl a 90% rise in current liabilities) have more than doubled, that ratio has fallen to 27%. Also as a result of the sharp rise in liabilities is that the EV has increased hugely to the extent that, even if I take an optimistic view of where EBIT will be this year, it no longer looks cheap. Very disappointing

great find this one. Yes the spread sucks but actually this looks v exciting.

need to look into this again. Results weren't as bad as first thought and could be a great chance to buy into the weakness for a LT hold

El1te - you called it at the bottom perfectly. Amazing tip!

Interative Investor say this is a bargain: At 6p, Belgravium trades on only 9 times forward earnings, dropping to 7.5 next year. Strip out £1.4 million of net cash at period-end, worth 1.4p per share, and that sinks to less than 7 for 2014. An enterprise value-to-cash profits multiple of 4.2 screams value, too. http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/190108/belgravium-technologies-bargain-territory Whereas Paul Scott takes a different view: Belgravium Technologies (LON:BVM) - £6m market cap at 6.13p per share - interim results to 30 Jun 2014 look OK, with turnover up 12% to £4.6m. Profit is up ahead, at £215k (vs. £137k), but we're really talking very small numbers here. Not sure why it's stock market listed really? It's forecast to pay a 4% dividend this year, so that might just cover your bid/offer spread on the purchase? The commentary sounds pretty upbeat. An H2 weighted year is expected. The Bal Sheet doesn't look great - only £1.3m net tangible assets. TrakM8 recently looked at it as a potential acquisition, but talks ended almost as quickly as they were announced. This business hasn't really gone anywhere in the last 6 years, so it's a bit of a leap of faith to think it will become more successful now. I can't get excited about this one. The trouble is, you can find yourself unable to exit in a bear market with stocks this small, so they don't appeal to me unless there's a very good reason to buy & it's very cheap. - See more at: http://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-3-sep-2014-tung-api-goal-bvm-peg-85811/#sthash.qofN29D5.dpuf

http://sharecast.com/news/vislink-chairman-buys-shares-as-results-disappoint/22010922.html http://sharecast.com/news/vislink-puts-shine-on-mixed-interims-with-harmonic-partnership/22009391.html

these results look very good

Hi Test, I really like your approach of thinking of worst case scenarios etc and looking at companies from a conservative view when it comes to whether to invest or not. This is what I try to do myself when decided where to allocate my money. I often find that hearing from other people’s points of view helps me decide what to do also. Often it’s the case that I hear something that puts me off a share, but sometimes I hear things that trigger a whole new episode of research. Rarely am I so confident / bullish about a share that I can dive straight in without first looking at other people’s opinions / despite general market sentiment. Let me know whether you choose to invest in Catlin or not and best of luck to you, my fellow investor. Very best regards, Dan

http://www.privatepunter.co.uk/Companies/keeping-close-to-stadium-19-july-2014

Very true

Yeah huge catastrophes have often resulted in a "hard market" which are the very best years for insurers, providing they survived / are still in the game (of which Catlin would be one of them)

testpack, Not every loss you see on TV will be insured by Catlin. The expertise of the underwriters at Catlin must be very good for them to be so profitable etc. That’s the first thing. Secondly, even if they are involved, chances are they won't have taken on 100% of the risk. Usually for large / complex risks they'll just be one of many insurers liable. So, you may see a £300m loss, but if Catlin only have a 10% line done then they’ll have to pay out £30m. Thirdly, you have reinsurance. There are many types of reinsurance and some have been developed specifically for catastrophes too. All insurers will have reinsurance treaties in place whereby premium and claims are split proportionally between the insurer (Catlin in this case) and the reinsurer. So going back to my previous example where Catlin would have to pay out £30m – if that comes under the terms of the treaty where the reinsurers have agreed to split premiums and claims 30:70 then Catlin may end up paying just £9m. So, in this hypothetical example, you can see how you may see a huge £300m loss on TV, but Catlin may only have to pay out £9m (3% of the total) I’m obviously being totally hypothetical. But let’s say Catlin were down for the full 100% / the full £300m. It would either fall under the treaty and, failing that, Catlin would have purchased some reinsurance on a facultative / individual basis and / or, failing that, bought some excess of loss reinsurance whereby the reinsurer will pay all loses above £50m etc. So, even here, you can see how the loss to Catlin would be 25% of what the total paid out. Again I’m just being hypothetical but my point is this: All insurers employ lots of actuaries who do lots of catastrophe modelling, to ensure that the insurer does not take on more risk than they’re comfortable with. Insurers will then use actuarial models (including catastrophe modelling) to determine 1) what they choose to insure, 2) what coverage and limits to provide, and 3) How much and what reinsurance to purchase. Well that’s the idea. Only the best insurers have that down to a fine art. And Catlin is one of the best insurers - they know what they’re doing. Hope I haven’t sounded patronising there but I just wanted to (try to) explain that you can’t let the thought of losses (which is inevitable when you’re taking on loads of other people’s / companies’ risks) put you off investing in Catlin. Very best regards, Dan