Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Quardum "No one here has yet come up with a meaningful percentage or range for what might be paid for in the ground resources." My 18.30 post is based off the 29th June RNS, I think that as they say "transactions....of mining projects" that this is indeed ground resources. As I also suggest, my �22.5m (just MAFL's share) is prudent. Based on my points in that post, and my own opinion, I am hoping that we actually see closer to �28m (just MAFL's share, using 10mt, 8.4% ZincE, and an in the ground price of $90pt based on the zinc rise in 2017). That would be an SP increase from here of 6.3 times, or culminating at 81p. Obviously my figures could be way off, but I believe they are in line with the RNS (please note, in my 18.30 post the first line should have been 10mt, not 8mt, sorry). u696061; I hope my post is one of the ones you view as positive, as it definitely is! If you are indeed right that MAFL will get more than the 49% for any sale then that obviously increase my figures above (which are based on 49%). All IMO, DYOR.
If Mafl achieve a resource update of 8mt. At 8% ZinceE, that would give 800,000tons of ZincE. Based on the 29th June 17 RNS (related paragraph at bottom of post), if we use the $75.74 of ZincE figure quoted then that would give a valuation of $60.6m. A couple of salient points: 1. I have used prudent figures in the first set of the assumption (I am actually hoping for 10mt and closer to 9%) 2. The $75 project (PROJECT!) average, is based on 2016 transactions. We have seen prices rise considerably in 2017 which can only increase this figure. 3. I believe that we would be on the higher ton cost side, due to where the resource is (location, government and infrastructure). 4. $60.6 USD = �46m GBP. If we then calculate at MAFL�s 49% ownership that gives us �22.5m. Which is 5x current market cap. �However, in 2016, transactions of individual zinc rich mining projects occurred at a mean valuation[2] of US$75.74 per tonne of zinc equivalent metal, while the median value is US$10.83 p/t of zinc equivalent2 metal. To look at it another way, a group of 31 junior mining companies with zinc-rich resources, comparable to Lagoa Salgada, currently trade at a mean valuation of US$50.21 p/t of zinc equivalent1 metal, while the median value is US$14.78 p/t of zinc equivalent1 metal�
Can sell 95,000 shares in one go, it's been a while. FYI - the bid price was 13.61p. ma5k - Please note, these are 'dummy' sells. I am clearly not going to sell. However, when live prices are all over the place it is the best way to get a feel on the market (IMO).
It's been 3 weeks now since the RNS quoted below, so we can expect the final drilling update anytime from today... "The 5th and 6th holes have been completed and the core has been sent to ALS in Seville, Spain for assaying. We expect the results to be returned to TH Crestgate within the next 3 to 4 weeks. Additionally, AGP Mineral Consultants of Canada has been retained to review and update the resource estimate. We expect a resource estimate on Lagoa Salgada to be completed before year end."
Quadrum, my only thoughts on the implied $960m is that isn't this based on the 2012 resource estimate of LS1. If so, this is public information, so I'm confused why no one else purchased LS1 for more than the 150k pittance that we did? I'm fairly new to this share though, so would appreciate any further context anyone else can add. I await the next set of results, which we can expect from this Thursday onwards based on the last RNS.
A little quiet here today. What are people's thoughts on a potential sale price, if MAFL are able to increase LS1 to 8mt? I have no idea, but I would like to think even �40m would be cheap (which, based on 49% ownership, would give MAFL an SP of c.49p). Would appreciate everyone else thoughts?
So my 10k buy earlier this week didn't affect the price, but the 2k sell this morning did? I wish I understood the vagaries of AIM. Wizard - I'm afraid I don't agree with you. The volumes here are too small to offer you a hypothesis. Even with large-caps it's still guesswork as it's reliant on external factors (you need people to sell!). I imagine you're the kind of person in the Casino that believe if there's been 3 red numbers in a row on roulette this increases your chances of black on the next spin (spoiler; it doesn't).
- Brexit: has created uncertainties across all arenas, I'm sure you'll agree - Expansion: have recently taken over Banco Popular... - Strategy differences: Emilio did aim to float minor (<50%) stakes of many entities to fund 1) capital requirements, or 2) further expansion. Ana runs the group from a more prudent direction and capital is already strong, further they would not need to sell UK to fund further expansion (Ana has stated this will only happen at bargain price) - UK Profit: Brazil accounts for 21% of underlying Group profit, but UK is very very close at 20% - why would you dilute your cash cow? As I say, I'm happy to revisit with you this time next year. ATB
Strangely, regarding the dispute, I did find this recently where the other party (and apparently Cap) say there hasn't been a dispute. Either way, it's difficult to find too much out around the Cap element. In its statement on Wednesday, September 13 Far denied the dispute claim brought up in Upstream�s article. "Far said in that the company had not appeared, nor been requested to appear, in any court in Dakar and that Far and Cap had not met regarding any alleged dispute. Furthermore, Far stated that Cap had not served Far with any papers to sequester Far�s assets in Senegal. The company also added that its contractual relationship with Cap is not material." http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/far-denies-story-of-alleged-court-dispute-with-cap/
Has anyone been able to find out any updates from Cap Energy? O1N figures may have been a little presumptuous, but it's clear than the 1.3% holding can be material to Mafl. I did have a look at the Q3 presentation on their website, but it didn't really mention anything new... Do we know how the data room interest has progressed?
Good call on the three drills all being finalised. What are your thoughts around findings, are you confident they'll be in line with the other drills? I'm still keeping my shares here in my back pocket. I don't pretend to understand the industry, but if successful then a £25m MC for MAFL would not really raise many eyebrows (but would be a 5x increase for our share value from here...). I know you mentioned £1 a share, what makes you reach that figure?
TonyJ - Sorry to comment, but you keep mentioning this SanUK listing... I, and others, do not believe this is remotely imminent. The group will want complete understanding of Brexit outcomes before they look at this further. It's also worth remembering that there is no need to sell a stake (e.g no capital T1 issues), and that BNC recently bought Popular (so they are already "expanding generally". However, the minority-listing did used to be Emilio's favoured strategy but Anna appears to be of a more prudent nature. If it happens it will no doubt be good for us, but I felt the need to comment as new investors may read your posts believing it a foregone conclusion. Hope you don't mine, and good weekend all.
I can't believe the spread on this, I'm not a current holder, so I'm not sure how real it is - but it's huge!
Regarding sharesave: If 5000 employees (roughly 20% of UK staff) save £50 a month (I think this is a safe conservative estimate?) over 36months, that would equate to: £9,000,000.... People may be happy with an 8% profit. I'd add though that the latest option price is considerably lower, so I would have thought many would have cashed out to buy back in (although obviously tied for another 3 years..). Just my thoughts. GLA.
RNS - delayed dividend due to 'technical administrative delay" - now expected to be paid by 24 August 2016.
Thank you for the salient update Bumpy, much appreciated! With the rampers and de-rampers prevalent on the other boards it makes for a brilliant change :) I've only got a little invested here (£800), but welcome updates.