Market Overreaction15 Jan 2021 09:52
I emailed the CEO Steve Flavell a similar question because I was confused by recent trading update:
My email:
What does this statement mean exactly?
> Our pipeline for cloud telephony live opportunities continues to grow rapidly, now standing at potential Total Contract Value of approximately £84 million
I understand the contract values themselves are over a two year period from the footnote, so does this mean that the £84 million possible contracts will be recognized in 2021 & 2022? This doesn't really make sense though because 2021 ARR was expected to be £32m so I am confused.
Basically, what years/timeframe will this £84m be recognized in?
CEO response:
A few comments:
- The statement doesn’t say – and isn’t meaning to imply – that 2021 revenue is expected to be £32m. It is saying that – at the time of writing – the Group’s annualised revenue run-rate currently stands at c.£34m (i.e. 12x the current monthly revenue)
o Please note: no mention of £32m and no mention of 2021 expected revenue
- Pipeline Total Contract Value (TCV) is a totally different metric
o You are right that, as per the footnote, we are assuming an average contract term of 2 years for this new Cloud Telephony pipeline of business (separate to our Meetings pipeline)
o So Pipeline Annual Contract Value (ACV) would be 50% of the Pipeline TCV
o Therefore the Pipeline TCV of £84m equates to a Pipeline ACV of £42m
o Clearly, only a certain proportion of this pipeline will convert into customers and ongoing ARR
o So, for example (and only an example rather than any stated expectation), if 10% converts, then this pipeline would turn into ARR of £4.2m
My intepretation:
So it seems to be that LoopUp doesn't actually expect 2021 total revenue to drop to £34m, it's just the current ARR and the markets are mis-interpreting it.
I am thinking that progressive research has it wrong for next years drop in 2021 revenue and maybe I do in the above DCF. I have a feeling that it is going to be higher than the current ARR. Maybe because the contracts are gong to start converting.
CEO email: steve.flavell@loopup.com
Please email him yourself, he replies very very fast and get back to me what he says cause I am also interested :).