Member Info for lemonade311

> At least they are not stagnating, the product was only released at the end of 2022.

I'm a software developer and this means absolutely nothing. Everyone is using ChatGPT for coding and scripting because it saves time.

This statement by them means absolutely nothing.

Yeah, sell low and buy high. Good luck with that.

Growth will resume when we come out of inflation I would imagine.

> We have continued investing for future growth in the business. We had already enhanced our management team, bringing in a new Chief Operating Officer and a Marketing Director, as well as bolstering the production and food hygiene teams.

Increased headcount will impact SG&A in short term but is an investment for long term really.

> In the last six months, we have made a significant investment in our Enfield bakery by bringing in new state-of-the-art production facilities for cheesecakes, whilst also making other improvements to provide a better environment for our baking and production staff. This investment is reflected in the significantly higher admin costs in the period of £5.9m compared to £3.9m last year.

I see this reflected in an increase of Capex by 1.2m.

Results look better than I was expecting in short term imo.

The EPS reduction looks bad on paper but it would be good to know how much of that is down to investments and how much is inflation eating into margins.

Is EquityDevelopment is being paid by pensionbee to pump out these bullish articles lol? It says they are non-independent and classed as marketing material.

Eek.

Red flag that their investor presentations do not mentoin how they calculate the LTV/CAC ratio.

I contacted management over this and they responded:

They mention it in their investor call and they are calculating it wrong.

Detailed Access:
[1] URL: "https://www.pensionbee.com/investor-relations/results-and-reports"
[2] Item: Please kindly click on the first item called "3Q 2022 Results Presentation Recording"
[3] Timestamp: Please kindly move to 33 minute 45 second of that recording. You will find the answer to your LTV question there

My response:

I listened to the call and I have concerns with how you are calculating the LTV value.

You are taking £80 * 20 years = £1600 and calling that the LTV for the customer. You then divide this by your CAC of £246 and get a ratio of: 6.5

However the £1600 is future cash flows from the customer and you are NOT discounting this to your company's WACC which is giving a vastly inflated number.

You have to discount that future cash flow back to today's rate because

I have calculated your WACC to be around 10% given the risk free rate + ERP and given that you are a growth small company.

Discounting £1600 at 10% gives a LTV of £551.

Which actually results in a much less attractive LTV:CAC ratio of 2.2.

Here's the spreadsheet by David Skok: https://www.forentrepreneurs.com/ltv/

> In addition, because you are modeling revenues that will occur far in the future, you will need to apply a discount rate to account for the risks and time value of money. We recommend using a 10% discount rate, but this may differ depending on your own cost of capital.

This company is touting attractive LTV/CAC ratio and hiding their calculations and then giving the wrong calculation on earnings calls.

This is a massive red flag imo. The unit economics are not as great as they are touting which means slower growth in the future.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/07/fear-panic-housing-market-bishops-stortford-mini-budget-mortgages

> The phone has all but stopped ringing at Mullucks estate agent in Bishop’s Stortford – except for calls from buyers with bad news about collapsing chains.

Belvoir hasn't dropped nearly enough for the coming collapse in demand for housing that is around the corner imo. All of the housing stocks have collapsed due to this.

Housing market is way overvalued in all developed countries and the rate increase is the catalyst.

I was long at £1.2 a share and will buy again once they collapse to this share price again.

Not the directors fault the market thought the shares were worth a stupid £24 a share. You're all just salty about the drop.

What are you talking about?

A share buyback at £6 is good. You post too much crap on here. Go learn instead.

Not sure why you think that... Are you over the age of 40 by any chance? :). The airport stands were complete trash and a 20th century business model.

It requires fees to the airport, staff to maintain, capex to raise them and is completely inefficient compared to online marketing reach when done properly.

Their ROIC, revenues and margins are higher to being online

That's the barest of trading updates I ever seen lol.

BOTB needs to post their LTV numbers in their next RNS. I've already asked them for this as we have the CAC but without LTV it's useless.

Anyway, this stock is priced so low that this is a good update. I actually saw their ads on reddit which is good that they are diversifying marketing strategies.

That's the point. Every tom dick and harry ARE opening one.

Starling is not using WISE API anymore and startups from Silicon Valley are going to undercut the competition.

I was hoping for some reasonable arguments against why startups like Atlantic.money will not kill Wise but seems as though there's no counter argument.

Great results with gross & oper. margin expansion.

No idea why this hasn't gone up.

Yes but 99% of people are using Wise for FX transfers regardless of what their website says.

Anyway, I won't be investing. Competition is clearly going to hurt margins soon.

How is wise more than money transfers?

Their entire USP is cheap fx transactions for SMB's and Retail users.

It's not a worse exchange rate.

They charge the market rate, I compared a £20k transaction on Atlantic Money compared to Wise.

Wise costs £80~
Atlantic costs £3

Wise takes a fee % at market FX rate.
Atlantic charges £3 at market FX rate.

Atlantic is the clear winner for any meaningful FX transaction

A new competitor just came out that kills wise on fee's: https://atlantic.money/

They charge a flat £3 fee which is far better than WISE for medium-big transactions.

This seems like a race to the bottom in my opinion. No margins in this industry in the future...

What does everyone think?

That trading update was better than I expected and they have now fixed a lot of accounting issues.

I was sceptical this could be a fraud before but now I think it's pretty clear it isn't. CakeBox seems like an easy buy at this price.

Here's an archived link from start of 2022: https://web.archive.org/web/20210315000000*/https://loopup.com/zh-hant/resource-type/customer-stories/

It shows the same exact customer stories. Not one new one.

So clearly it's not a new customer story stew.

Here's the archive link from 07/09/2020: https://web.archive.org/web/20200812185202/https://loopup.com/us/resource-type/customer-stories/

11 new customer stories in that time.

More than I expected tbh lol

Oh they've actually posted 2 more companies since... that I've never head of

That's actually just another red flag. Not a positive lol.

Companies want to show off their best customers in case studies. The fact that they have done a case study on a micro cap no-name company is obvious that they have no other customers that are bigger or better to show off.

Wake me up when this company finally dies and stops limping along being a zombie and wasting shareholders time and money.