Member Info for lemonade311

Also, I worked at shell before, shell uses mindgym, so when mindgym keeps touting that £1m+ energy company deal, they are talking about shell.

And shell had a new CEO in 2023 called Wael who is cutting everywhere and outsourcing, I would expect a high % chance that shell cuts mindgym when they can tbh

Glad I only have 1% of my portfolio in these as they are way too hard to predict.

All spending right now is going into AI/ML as well so I don't see this stock getting any better results soon. This being £2 a share was hilarious though. £2 -> 20p in 2.5 years. amazing

It's a good update but I personally expected this and it's inline with my expectations.

The company is still worth far more than £3 though

My long thesis on WJG: https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1d1on06/watkin_jones_lsewjg_100_year_old_house_builder_in/

Thanks

Hi all,

I wrote my thoughts here on OTB and why I own them, open to debate on if I missed anything or the Bear thesis: https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1cxcj7z/on_the_beach_recent_ryanair_deal_not_priced_in_by/

To move stock I presume they are heavily discounting the wines, what does this mean for customers long term? will they be accustomed to hugely discounted wines? That could be an issue

> They have always had poor margins and poor management has run the company into the ground. Poor margins is never good for a company.

Well no that's not true, pre 2020 their margins were above industry average by a long shot. new management seems fine imo. Poor margins is probably temporary unless we have another spike of inflation. I expect/hope management to have something in new contracts to shift some of the build cost inflation risk to investors.

Anyway, results were fine imo. Didn't see anything wrong, just traders being traders. Still a wait and hold until rates drop.

Eh? What are you expecting @smorrisjones, forward sales + cost build inflation mean that margins will be lower for a few years.

How are they supposed to magically increase margins right now when rates are high?

This is funny.

He was also shorting Plus500 at £13 clearly, that hasn't gone well.

Hey all,

Here's my long thesis with detailed breakdown of why this company is undervalued (imo) given managements new strategy.

By the way, I was bearish on them from £10 to £1 due to their previous strategy:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1cuwluf/frontier_developments_is_really_undervalued_still/

Also, another thing from the presentation they gave.

Premium market is a big opportunity. If they can execute here as well then margins will be much higher than historical.

Weak argument Alessandro, I've gone in depth on the financials and OTB is indeed a cash machine.

- It's operating and free cash flows are significantly higher than it's profits every year.

- pre-2020 this was generating £15m-£20m in FCF every year. That's why analysts are calling it a cash machine.

- Admin expenses are up cause of inflation, once inflation/rates keeps going down then operating leverage will come back (as it already is in the results).

- OTB is not embellishing figures, it's not difficult to look at the numbers.. They are trying to show improving operating leverage (although it's obviously much worse than 2019 still due to inflation).

Competition is the only valid thing, if you believe competition from easyjet2, jet2, tui package holidays will become more fierce and take market share then OTB is valued roughly correct due to lower margins, if not (and imo it won't) then OTB is way undervalued. OTB provides a great service to customers.

Also, the new RyanAir partnership is being WAY undervalued by the market. This now means no more legal costs, customers are MUCH happier because ryanair allows OTB to scrape data and provide more add-ons, less customer service calls etc. So this alone will result in a larger revenue growth and margin expansion due to repeat bookings and less costs that wouldn't happen otherwise.

Bought more at this price. People on these boards are always so bearish when stock prices are down and bullish when they are all time highs, just lemmings.

It's a non-issue. CCH was generting no profits and even a loss, shutting down the high street portion is best imo

High street is dead and will continue to die for holiday booking.

Thanks for explaining @redjester, yes I don't gamble so that's why I asked, will have another look at them then. @GingerHippo, you are correct, I didn't, simply because I didn't understand how a 2000 looking flash game has any attraction.

weak argument alessandro.

adjusted profits is an obvious bull**** number that all companies product, you have the option of easily ignoring it like i do.

also why would gross profit be after marketing lol? marketing is an opex not a cogs.

i don't see any embellishment, just the usual crap that companies do.

why do people play these **** games this company produces? i had a look into this company and it's games like space and invaders and it was like pre-2000 flash games lol, absolute dog **** quality games, doesn't even look fancy like slot machines at the casino.

i don't get it unless someone wants to fill me in.

Thanks, read the articles.

The key thing to note here is the word 'present'.

> On the topic of automated (or machine) dubbing, ZOO said, “the technology is not currently capable of displacing traditional practices for premium entertainment content,” even though the quality of the output is improving

> At present, while technologies such as ChatGPT may be effective in processing certain genres of media content

Well yeah obviously, but if I was a betting person I'd say within 2 years, given the amount of US capital expenditure being thrown at this from VC's (in the 100's of billions) we will see it rapidly progress to where this is no longer true very quickly.

I also don't believe Zoo will have the resources to compete with this. Their CTO has no AI experience, he's a QA guy.

AI research engineers that I could find on linkedin for ZOO are all juniors.

Mandoo, fair market value is $0 imo.

This is being boosted short term but once Zoo loses markets and margins in a years time from AI generated content we will see this lose 50% in a day

Equity Developments forecasts on the vaping ban make no sense to me, see here for context: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=SUP&share=Supreme-Plc&thread=2CBBB81E-50F6-4EFE-821D-F4CA4E5516DC

I don't see how 2025 won't result in a massive drop in vaping revenue.

Disposable vapes have much less usage per vape which means higher revenues as consumers have to go back much more frequently to buy the disposable vape compared to a refillable. A tiny % drop just doesn't make sense to me.

It makes no difference whether the shares are held in treasury or cancelled etc, it's just irrelevant to the intrinsic value, I see this all the time on here.

The only thing that matters is if they buy back shares lower/higher than the intrinsic value or issue new shares lower/higher than intrinsic value.

No sane board if just going to randomly issue 33m new shares for no reason unless their was a valid growth opportunity that had ROIC much higher than the cost of issue.