Member Info for lemonade311

Thoughts on Zing? https://zing.me/

They seem to offer cheaper FX fees than Wise with slower transfer times and no foreign accounts.

Seems to be subsidized by HSBC parent

I'm not saying the reviews wont affect anything.

I'm saying the market already priced in the F1 series doing trash. Nobody is expecting £30m sales in 6 months again and FDEV shouldn't be either.

Planet Coaster 2 is at nearly 1 million views on the trailer. That's a good sign.

It won't really affect anything I think.

My own projections were £6m in first 6 months, F1 23 was £4.4m in first 6 months, F1 22 was £30m in first 6 months.

Either way, it's not really relevant compared to the value of the CMS games where all of FDEV future value is in. It will do around £4-£6m probably.

I don't want them to do another F125 though. I don't care that they have the license paid already, it's a waste of dev resources.

Lol. terrible again. 6/10 is not mixed, it's trash, the cuts clearly had an affect as they have a time limit to release every year. They have shown they are not competent outside of their CMS engine and need to stop, sales will be terrible, same as 23

PlanetCoaster2 though has 900k+ views on youtube for the trailer so that should perform well.

Hi goob, thanks for comment, 2 years later I've changed my mind on Wise, I haven't bought them yet but probably will soon.

I think startups like atlantic.money are subsidised as well by VC money, once they scale they won't be able to beat Wise on prices for the same customers anyway.

@lorenzo, had a quick look, you are correct, they do put 70% as variable costs in their IR for SCS, I thought their interest on property was higher from memory but it seems not.

I did years ago after they fell huge and then sold after, SCS was always a mediocre business imo. The buyout was very good for shareholders I thought.

SCS did not have low fixed costs. They had huge leases IIRC.

Leases is a fixed cost like debt, anyway. It's pretty clear CRL are on right path and these fears are not justified imo

Surprisingly good results considering the damage done by Bernard

The real driver behind this stock is Pippa Clark. She actually understands business it seems. Thankfully she's now in charge.

If it wasn't for her this would be going bust probably

It doesn't make sense Apox.

Inventory reduction is fine here and standard imo.

Saying that they would be loss making if they didn't sell inventory makes no sense to me either. They aren't dumping inventory on their retailers to pump their numbers AFAIK.

> As highlighted last year, the Contract side of the business continues to see reductions in order demands. This is due to brands being overstocked and therefore, requiring less manufactured stock during 2023. However, both the Private label and Branded divisions continue to gain momentum.

Seems like businesses over-bought given huge increase after covid and then had too much stock.

> The Branded division has been challenged in the current year. There has been a significant decline in a key export market which has suffered a sharp economic downturn. We anticipate this will start to recover during the second half as orders are starting to flow through again.

This part isn't good. Seems like China is the key export market? Or is it the US? China is screwed with deflation and a housing bubble burst with no consumer demand so I don't foresee this getting better unfortunately unless their market is US here. It's frustrating how anti-shareholder this company is. Just say the damn market.

> Outward freight has increased by 14.3% to £0.8m (2022: £0.7m), due to increased cost of freight and the sales mix.

Freight prices went up again a lot due to businesses panic ordering early for Christmas (stupid!).

There are red flags, but they are elsewhere in the statement.

But this stock is so low now at £18m EV it's hard for me to consider selling.

No idea why this is going up today. Silly market.

It was fairly obvious with some basic DD that coaster 2 was going to be announced as the next game given they wouldn't want to cannibalise planet zoo sales.

Isn't a value destructive company at all.

Value destruction comes mostly from bad acquisitions (see LSE:CRL, YOUGOV for example) and bad investments. TheGYM and PureGYM are eating mid-market gyms like AnyTime fitness for lunch because of their business model of not having fixed contracts and no sales people etc so they can offer cheap prices.

This comment shows to me you haven't done enough research or understand the fundamental drivers of the company.

COVID screwed them as it made a fundamental shift in consumers working habbits which meant some gyms became much less efficient and then energy prices rocketing hurt them.

They are recovering and as they shut down the less efficient gyms and expand into more profitable and their gyms mature they will be fine.

They shouldn't be paying a dividend at all as they are growing, the only reason they do is cause dumb retail investors in the UK love dividends.

Perhaps you should do more research before buying a company.

@lorenzo I had a look. Still don't understand the concern around inventory. Inventory is fine.

It's good that inventory has gone down by £2m, frees up extra cash that the business needs seen as the donkey Bernard wasted £4m of it on this acquisition.

in Mar. 2020, sales were £47m for TTM with inventory of £7.3m, sales are now on track for £54m with inventory of £10m. This is perfectly reasonable inventory levels to me given their historical inventory.

Go look at boohoo, ASOS if you want some inventory horror shows.

-40% on open to -10% on close.

F for whoever panic dumped lol.

@lorenzolynch a bit confused what you mean. They haven't done any huge reductions in prior inventory according to the inventory ratios I looked at on gurufocus:

Mar 2020 Mar 2021 Mar 2022 Mar 2023 TTM

Days Inventory 101.87 78.30 108.44 121.10 125.49

Inventory TO 3.59 4.66 3.37 3.01 2.91

Inventory-to-Rev 0.16 0.13 0.17 0.19 0.20

These numbers are the opposite of what your concerns are, inventory has gone up by about 20% which indicates slower sales a bit (to be expected given macro).

I don't see any huge inventory reductions here.

i don't think so, not 100% sure though.

i remember when bernard said: 'i want to turn this into a 100m (or was it 1b?) company' or something like that.

whenever a future director says this **** it clearly means they will do stupid things with money.

Amazing waste of £4m

Was pretty obvious they overpaid but that's a huge write off..

Cause these results don't matter, it's backwards looking.

The only thing that matters is how much revenue/profits they lose once vaping is banned which is a huge risk and way too hard to model imo.

1. Nobody defines EV as that calculation.

2. Do the calculation then with your numbers then.

EV = £111 + £60m in cladding costs = £171m

256m shares

= 0.18p a share. around 50% the value of the current share price.

So no, you can't just use your 'Adjusted' EV ratio and think it's a buy.

Whoever did that recommendation is pretty stupid imo.

Wallpaper sales are tied to people moving houses. Housing market is not moving right now due to interest rates. It was pretty obvious these results would not be beating expectations.

EnterpriseValue is not the correct ratio to use because it doesn't take into account the cladding costs which must be done.