Member Info for LeMajor

Otto turned over 110m shares and the sp / MC gained 50%. As OEL shares were worth around 4c, the equivalent amount of cash changing hands for 88e would turn over 220m as our shares are about 2c. It will be interesting to see how long such a high turnover can be sutstained.

Looks like Apex is a methodology. The thing about methodologies is that the inventors want you to pay them for a toolset that follows a prescribed path - start at Step A, then got to step B, then step C, etc, etc.
You pay for a technique that preaches flexibility but imposes a straight-jacket - diametrically opposed to PB's philosophy of "ACB" thinking. In fairness methodologies can get you "off the ground" quickly, but if something hits you from "left field", ofter you have to back track, sometimes right back to the starting point. Thorough knowledge of your subject and those disciplines which impinge upon it can only be gained with time and experience, but is essential if you need to be flexible.
No straight-jackets here !

Buying back shares would make us less "liquid" and thus more volatile - same effect as I previously stated - besides which, if we have more cash available DW will use it to accelerate our drilling (proving up) programme - which will get us to the finish line quicker. Of course this will suit LTI's more than the Rainbow Chasers, but there will be plenty of activity to suit horses of both colours over the next 1~2 years

It is a positive. RMP for instance has a smaller number so if a few big players get spooked and sell, it will hit the sp hard, thus encouraging others to bail out too - but because of the smaller pool of investors there will be very few who will take up the slack, thus causing a landslide on the sp. With a bigger pool of investors there is more stability, so it will be a little slower to react (either up or down) and thus investors have more time to consider near term effects versus longer term prospects. Takes some of the emotion out of investing.Take Lloyds Bank a serious dip for them would be a 1% drop, for 88e we move 5% just inhaling and exhaling normally - if RMP had an asthma attack it could be fatal ! The size of the investor pool is more important than the number of shares, but a lot of shares usually means a lot of investors (Huge).

Could not agree more. FO will give us security and nail down a higher base line. In my view the Ann will arrive after Winx spud but before Winx flow result is announced - if the sp is still rising at the end of March I would not be surprised to see the FO Ann "delayed by legal formalities, prior to a joint Ann in a few more days" - if it means another penny on the sp, it will be worth it. Not saying it will be delayed, just that there will be a good reason if it is.
As for where the sp will be is the big question. Many PI's are wary of over ambitious predictions but we have been above 4p as a one horse explorer, now we have four horses - so once we have enough cash in the kitty to feed and sustain them we will crash through the glass ceiling and smell the coffee ( though the cream is still to come).
Well done the boyyos' !

Had to use name "motley" as "facebook" was already taken.

If we had 100m trades/day then take off "normal avg trades" would leave 70m/day to reduce overhang. However, on the one hand quite a few M's have gone already, and on the other hand many who wanted to hold for 1.2p, after waiting 3+ months may feel it's worth holding another 7/8 weeks for 2.5-5p (depending how good that FO really is).

BRB, "more acres= more dillution" - depends how you look at it.
If the company converts the cash (liquid assets) into land or natural resources (fixed assets) it is no different than converting your Building Society account into a 3-Bed House. Logically the extra shares will be worth the same as they were before the CR, once funds are converted from cash to Land/Oil - however the Market often demands proof, so the sp is likely to dip below its "logical value" until proof is provided at which time the scramble to buy-in will cause the SP to rise above its "logical value" for a while. Of course whether you deal in shares or houses you never know whether you made a good investment until you sell - only then can you truly know whether you ended up making or losing money. (not forgetting the RPI to compensate for the "natural loss" due to inflation and all the legal and survey costs incurred to minimise a long term loss). Few things are as simple as they seem to the naive investor.

Nice rise but only 11m traded in first 100 minutes - need to see 3 or 4 times that volume every day for more than a week to clear lòosely held shares from last CR. Hope we get there before the FO ann.

Muscat, what if we get news about a stupendous FO deal just before the Winx result? How will that affect the ratio with RMP?
WDKWWDK

Whoever they are, no doubt they will be EXX-perts.

We do have morons, but mostly they are pseudo-morons - "l'agent provocateurs" who just like to wind-up those nervous investors, who probably should not be playing around with AIM in the first place. This is a long-haul business, and I like many thought 3-4, maybe 5 years & 2-3 holes per year but we live and learn. My previous oil investment took 20 years to rise from 2.5p to several pounds but without the 10 to 1 consolidation (which only made the sp go up by less than 9 times) it would have been well under 50p when they sold out. There are no guarantees, but DW will get us a good return from the conventional plays and id PB had it right (still in the balances), an even better return - whether you hold out to the end, or cash in various portions on the way. As he said 2019 looks to be a milestone year, on that journey - so I for one am waiting for my reds to turn blue in the next couple of months.

Just as well that 3 out of our 4 targets relate to conventional, eh?

Just returned the grandkids so on a high for the weekend.

WAussie, would that be a parabolic projectory? It goes up for a while then comes down (unless firing up a hill).

Providing there are not too many leases assigned to companies starting with a number, '8's & 'A's will probably be in the adjacent filing cabinet. :-)

LTI, the whole point of the last CR was to take us beyond drilling and into Winx flow testing. We will see more activity with sp beyond spud - only 2 weeks (give or take).

Jof, we'd need to be seeing 50M+ shares turned over every day for maybe 3-4 weeks to clear the overhang - but 100M would be better.

We are going after oil sands on this venture, not shale - that may have something to do with the depth - however, if we have stacked plays, I would have thought we'd pause at each target level and collect metrics on the way down.
I know nothing, fortunately Erik is in charge.

One of the main confidentiality issues relates to the losers of the bidding process. If news got out that company X is in the running, their own sp could rise. If X then lost out to Y, when the result is published the sp of X would plummet. That is why all companies sign a NDA.