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Learn about serious TA, bother looking at the charts that I actually posted, read again what I’ve written and then see whether you’ll say the same thing.
When a pattern has been broken, you have to reassess your position. Better doing it asap before it gets too late to preserve one’s capital.
And note that I didn’t give a downwards target when I said « “mildly bearish”, because that bearishness was indeed only mild and the outcome not clear at all.
The large intraday swings of the SP are the reason for my subsequent re-reassessment.
Pattern roughly back in play and broken through the oblique resistance again - the past 2-3 trading days were brutal.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NLlC6FEX/
We're also now above the volume shelf, the next one is in the high 40's, and the momentum indicators are all pointing up. Looking good again.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEKbHWYZ/
Low 80s within the next 2-3 months in my view based on the volume profile - the above chart starts from the day when the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was announced.
Not necessarily. I hold a substantial (long) spread bet on #TGA. I have of course a wide stop loss due to the large inherent spread of that share and its intraday volatility, but I have conducted my risk / benefit analysis before starting my position - this morning actually.
Beijing has now explicitly denied the early end to zero Covid policies.
https://www.ft.com/content/99693f8f-c9fd-4f0e-85dd-2fcff12853b3
Note that the lifting of the zero Covid policy was not outright denied either. And indeed, HK is even being actively reopened and promoted to foreigners (bearing in mind that HK has been more loosely managed than mainland China though).
Look at the chart that I posted earlier for probable upper targets based on common charting techniques.
If you can’t formulate a plan, many people use the 8ema (the green curved line) as a rough rule of thumb to determine where to set their stop loss (aiming for a couple pence below that line to make up for any spread manipulation).
Pokerchips
You're welcome.
However, it is key to understand what technical analysis (i.e. charts) does. WHEN there are CLEAR signals (most people posting charts on Twitter claim to see them when there are in fact none), and several of them (1-2 or signals is just not enough), you get a sense of the sentiment. A bit like a golfer sensing the wind.
So if you have sentiment in your favour, good news will propel the SP further up than if technical indicators are against you.
One good example is when your momentum indicators are low (the RSI and stochastic): great news that propels the SP is more likely to be followed by brutal sell-off the following day. While if the RSI and Stochastic are in the upper half of the band (but preferably not above the band, the "overbought" area), any price rise triggered by good news is relatively more likely to last longer.
Fair.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hlmDRtU3/
The harmonic is not featured, it's getting overloaded.
You will see:
- that all momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic) have just left the oversold area and just started pointing up (= back in an uptrend).
- the volume candle highlighted in blue (a massive one).
- the morning star reversal candlestick patten highlighted in green.
- the descending channel shaded in blue.
I left the rainbow-coloured Fibonacci retracement indicator to give a sense of possible targets up.
I also added the volume profile (far right-hand side) to get a sense of which greater "volume zone" could be a good magnet for the SP as it gains momentum upwards.
Hi all
Several significant technical indicators have just converged:
- We are in the potential reversal zone of a bullish harmonic pattern.
- We are the resistance of a bullish descending flag.
- "Morningstar reversal" candlestick pattern from the last 3 days.
- Very very high volume yesterday (usually suggests a probable reversal when at the (apparent) bottom or top of a trend.
Obviously technical analysis is to be taken with caution (even more so when there are loads of quacks around) but if you look up online for an explanation of those signals / patterns, you will see that they all clearly appear on the daily chart of #FXPO.
-
My view on what specifically?
Have Asos and/or most markets reached a bottom? I don't know and will never profess to know, at least not until we have gone back into a clear uptrend so much much later after a reversal has happened. Trying to predict / claim bottoms is a mug's game IMO.
My view about Mark M's tweet? He was half contradicting himself and more or less concluded that we should not try to guess when bottoms are forming.
Right now, Asos is still in a clear downtrend. Yesterday's hammer may or may not mark a bounce before a reversal, but there is not enough evidence to assume that. On the other hand, the Jeremy Hunt's speeches of yesterdayj(morning then at the House of C) confirmed officially that consumers will have less disposable income. So "markets" may have been calmed down, but non-essential consumer products businesses still have plenty of pain ahead, for a length of time unknown so far.
Add to that Asos openly admitting it is facing headwinds by wanting to increase its credit facility (after being almost forced to do so by the press) and postponing its results by one week (they were due last Wednesday, then without any formal announcement (nor explanation) they are pushed back to tomorrow 19th!): on balance things don't look good in the short term.
I can't make claims medium-long term.
Thank you. He actually practically contradicts himself by closing with "the current trend is down".
His later tweets (today's too IIRC) anyway confirm indeed that we should not think in terms of (chasing) bottoms anyway, and should more look after some form of evidence of a trend up forming... (which is broadly in line with some of the comments of your last post, i.e. I am not disagreeing with you.)
Treacle24 - the latest US inflation figures from last week were worse than expected, so according to that logic claiming that we are in a market bottom is still inappropriate.
The general mentality of searching for bottoms is just unreliable and thus not profitable - as Mark Minervini himself says in his method (I've read his first two books twice.)
Netzeroready:
You are claiming that a major investor, whose involvement had been trumpeted for 1.5 years, selling at a 92% (IIRC) loss of approx £450m, and selling at a 15% (approx) discount from the latest market price, is good news?!?!
That is screaming evidence of SoftBank having no hope of getting any more of its money back, and wanting to offload asap.
This is a damning indictment for the online retail of non-essentials.
I highly respect Mark Minervini but “predicting” bottoms is not his area of expertise (even his method, which I know very well, recommends not trying to look for those).
And indeed, he already claimed that we’d reached the bottom about 5-6 months ago.
Hi all.
Superb response to the narrowing losses of JDW. Considering that Marston's has been better run than JDW (e.g. no need for placings like JDW did in 2020) and has had more advantageous locations (not as high a % of city centre ones, which have been less profitable - I understand city centres the type of pubs JDW has been offloading), it is probable that the end of year results will read better than JDW's.
That probably explains today's rise, and I suspect that this will carry on until the results as traders / investors would probably expect (relatively) good news on 11 October.